32% of Awami League voters are interested in voting for BNP: Survey

A large number of people in the country are interested in casting vote in the upcoming 13th National Elections. Among them, 32.9 percent of Awami League voters have expressed interest in voting for BNP.

Of the participants, 93.3 percent said that they are interested in casting vote in the February elections, said the survey conducted by private consulting firm Innovision Consulting.

The results of the survey titled 'People's Elections Pulse Survey (PEPS) Round-3' were presented at a press conference at Karwan Bazar in the capital on Friday (January 30).

The main results of the survey were presented by Innovision Consulting's Managing Director and Head of the survey Md. Rubaiyat Sarwar.

He said that the Round-3 survey mainly highlights the voters' willingness to vote and public opinion on the election environment ahead of the February 2026 national elections. This round is designed to compare the changes in the opinions of respondents who participated in the previous round. Public opinion can change with different circumstances and events related to the election.

Of the respondents, 32.9 percent of Awami League voters expressed the possibility of voting for BNP while 13.2 percent said they might vote for Jamaat-e-Islami and 41.3 percent are still undecided, the survey results claim.

Of those who said they would vote in the previous round, 96.1 percent said they would vote again. Of those who said they would not vote earlier, 78.5 percent expressed their intention to vote this time. And of those who had not expressed their opinion earlier, 89.7 percent said they would vote this time. Although the interest in voting among the Gen G is comparatively low, the overall rate is still high.

About 60 percent of respondents voted in favor of a ‘yes’ option in the referendum. However, 22 percent said they did not know about the referendum. There were differences in awareness and opinions across demographic and political groups. A similar trend was seen in the panel data from Round 2 of the survey.

In Round 3 of the survey, 72.3 percent of respondents thought that the government would be able to organize a fair election—which is higher than in Round 2.

Confidence in the impartiality of the police and administration at the local level increased to 74.4 percent.

The perception of security at polling stations has also improved as 82 percent of respondents thought that they would be able to vote safely. This rate was 78 percent in the previous round.

Meanwhile, the survey respondents made a distinction between the local and national security situation. Many said that political conflict was not much in their area. However, they felt that conflict was relatively more at the national level.

When asked which party candidate was likely to win in their area, 52.9 percent of respondents named the BNP candidate. However, 23.8 percent were not sure about this. Compared to Round 2, the rate of mentioning BNP as a possible winner has increased by 7.5 percentage points. In the case of Jamaat-e-Islami, this increase is 1.1 percentage points.

In the survey, 47.6 percent of respondents think that BNP Chairman Tarique Rahman will be the future Prime Minister of Bangladesh, 22.5 percent think that Jamaat-e-Islami Ameer Dr. Shafiqur Rahman will be the Prime Minister while 2.7 percent of participants mentioned NCP convener Nahid Islam as the future Prime Minister. However, 22.2 percent of respondents said that they do not know who the future Prime Minister will be. This indicates uncertainty about the election results.

A total of 74.2 percent of respondents said that they have decided which party they will vote for - which is more than in previous rounds. However, 69.7 percent of female respondents are still undecided. In contrast, 77.5 percent of male respondents said that they have decided.

According to the participants, BNP and their alliance can get 52.8 percent of the votes. Jamaat and its alliance are likely to get 31 percent of the votes. 13.2 percent of respondents did not express their vote preference.

The survey shows that BNP has received more votes than Jamaat among those who were previously undecided or did not express their vote preference. Of the BNP's possible 52.8 percent of votes, 26.6 percent came from previously undecided and undecided voters.

Of the Jamaat's possible 31 percent of votes, 14.1 percent came from the same group. The survey also shows that a significant number of undecided voters have turned to BNP in the wake of Tarique Rahman's return to the country and the death of BNP Chairperson Khaleda Zia.

Voters' awareness of Jamaat and NCP candidates is comparatively low compared to BNP candidates. Jamaat and NCP are contesting in relatively few specific seats, whereas this survey has analyzed the results at the national level, which may have affected the results.

The press conference said that there is instability in the vote bank and depending on the type of campaign strategy, the gap between the BNP and the Jamaat alliance may narrow, which may ultimately affect the seat distribution.

The press conference was discussed by Dr. Asif M. Shahan, Professor of Development Studies, University of Dhaka, Fahim Mashrur, Joint Convener of Voice for Reform, Shafiqul Rahman, Executive Director of BRAIN, Jyoti Rahman, Political Analyst and BRAIN Member, and Tasmia Rahman, Portfolio Director of Innovision Consulting.