A distant war, a real threat for Bangladesh

Bangladesh is currently under pressure from various directions—economic, social and environmental. We are a resource-deficient country, heavily dependent on imports for most of our energy and basic needs. Our economy is still agriculture-based, yet our population density is among the highest in the world. Every year, floods, tidal surges and the impact of climate change are increasing. Unemployment, especially among the youth, is a major crisis.

In addition, there is political instability and a deterioration of law and order. In this situation, the potential escalation of the Israel-Iran war in the Middle East could have a profound impact on our economy and society, even though we are geographically distant.

This article outlines the possible risks for Bangladesh and a framework of guidance on how to prepare in advance to tackle them.

Possible Challenges for Bangladesh:

1. Increase in Fuel Prices
Bangladesh is almost entirely dependent on imports of oil and LNG. If war breaks out in the Middle East and the Strait of Hormuz is closed or becomes risky, oil prices may suddenly spike. This will affect electricity, transport and essential goods prices—directly impacting the lives of the people.

2. Collapse in the export sector
If uncertainty rises in the global market, our garment exports will decline. Especially if demand falls in European and American markets, it will pose threats to the economy and employment.

3. Uncertainty for migrant workers
A large number of Bangladeshi expatriates work in the Middle East. If war spreads, they may lose their jobs, return home, or face difficulties sending remittances. This will strain the rural economy and families.

4. Disruption in the supply chain
In import-dependent sectors connected to the global market, crises may arise in fertiliser prices, food products and medicine. Agriculture, healthcare and the general livelihood of people will be affected.

5. Social tension and polarisation
Misinformation, rumours and communal rhetoric may quickly spread on social media. This can create religious divisions and social unrest.

Preventive measures for Bangladesh:

1. Emergency energy reserves and source diversification
a) Establish emergency reserves of oil and LNG
b) Diversify import sources
c) Expand solar and renewable energy

2. Maintaining economic stability
a) Increase foreign currency reserves
b) Control inflation through monetary policy
c) Keep exchange rate flexible

3. Diversification of export markets
a) Enter markets in Asia, Africa and Latin America instead of depending only on the West
b) Invest in new product sectors such as ICT, pharmaceuticals, handicrafts

4. Protection of migrants and remittance management
a) Strengthen diplomatic engagement with Middle Eastern governments
b) Prepare for possible repatriation
c) Encourage expansion of digital remittance channels

5. Social unity and accurate information dissemination
a) Spread messages of tolerance by involving religious and community leaders
b) Form an effective communication team to prevent misinformation and rumours
c) Involve media and civil society

Neutral geopolitics and strategic diplomacy:
Bangladesh must maintain a neutral stance on this war. Supporting one side could be dangerous for expatriate workers and trade. Therefore, Bangladesh should uphold a peaceful foreign policy, work for peace and stability on international platforms, and maintain strategic friendship with all sides.

Foresight, preparation and national unity:

Bangladesh is already plagued by various crises. If the impact of the Middle East war is added to this, it will be another major blow. To avoid this blow, the government and the people must jointly plan and take preventive measures.

This is not just a “distant war”—it is a clear warning for the security and stability of our future.

KM Zainul Abedin: Retired engineer