Bangladesh growth to be 4pc in current fiscal year: ADB

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has forecast 4 percent economic growth for Bangladesh in the current 2025-26 fiscal year. The bank also said temporary supply disruptions caused by the Middle East conflict will gradually ease.

According to the ADB's Asian Development Outlook (ADO) report published on Friday, April 10, Bangladesh's GDP is projected to reach 4.0 per cent in the current fiscal year and increase to 4.7 per cent in 2026-27, up from 3.5 percent in 2024-25.

The ADB said the improvement in growth may be driven by gradual recovery in consumption and investment. Reduced political uncertainty following the general election and normalisation of economic activity will be contributing factors.

ADB Country Director Ho Yun Jeong said Bangladesh is facing a difficult economic situation influenced by global uncertainty, domestic structural constraints, and external and financial sector pressures.

"The new government's reform programme has created a timely opportunity to strengthen macroeconomic stability, restore private sector confidence and support economic recovery," he said.

Inflation is expected to remain high at around 9.0 percent in the current fiscal year due to high global fuel prices and ongoing supply disruptions, before easing to 8.5 percent next fiscal year.

The current account deficit is projected at 0.5 percent of GDP this fiscal year, rising slightly to 0.6 percent next year, mainly due to higher imports and a widening trade deficit.

Despite Middle East tensions, remittance inflows are expected to remain stable in the short term.

The ADB warned that prolonged global geopolitical tensions could create new pressures on the economy, particularly if disruptions to energy markets, shipping routes and supply chains lead to higher oil and gas prices.