Bangladesh in perplexity of diplomacy!

Bangladesh has been drifting in a puzzle of diplomacy. Not only Bangladesh but the world politics has met with a perplexity. Since Donald Trump was elected the US President, the suicidal decision to impose additional tariffs on the entry of products from various countries into the US market has established a valid ground for isolating the United States in world politics. And within that area, world diplomacy is becoming complicated. Of course, Bangladesh is not outside of it.

Diplomacy is a very complicated matter as like the labyrinth of Motijheel. Of course, many of this generation may not know about the story of Motijheel. Motijheel also known as Company's Lake is a horseshoe-shaped lake in Murshidabad of West Bengal in India. A precious palatial palace beside this lake was known as the Motijheel Palace. It was used as the residence of Ghaseti Begum and it is said that Ghaseti Begum plotted against the last independent Nawab of Bengal, Siraj-ud-Daulah, while sitting in this palace. The construction style of this palace was such that those who entered this building could not leave. The visitors would roam around the palace and return to the base of a circular staircase again and again. They could not understand which gate to exit through. Only with the help of the trained guards of the palace could one find the gate to exit from that maze.

Today's diplomacy can be quite comparable. Regardless of the country, diplomats nowadays deliver information with a smile on their face, hiding the true message which is beyond the comprehension of the common people. For example, at the end of most bilateral or multilateral negotiations, it is said that "the negotiations were fruitful" while in reality, the issue that was discussed to resolve has become more intense.

A few days ago, the war between India and Pakistan broke out and suddenly it stopped again according to the announcement of US President Donald Trump. If the war started with the terrorist attack in Kashmir, then why did China become a shadow ally and side with Pakistan in that war? Why did Israel give unconditional support to India? And why did the war suddenly stop with the mediation of the US? We can ask these questions. But the answer will never be found. Everything that happens in world politics or regional politics is like a mystery. You may present various logics and analyses but you will never be able to reach the truth behind them. No one can ever know who controls that truth, whose box is locked.

Now the opposite is happening again. India has imported fuel oil from Russia in violation of US orders, so as a punishment, US President Donald Trump imposed an additional 25 percent duty on Indian products entering the US market. India protested this. And on the same day, it was learned that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi was going to visit China. Russian President Vladimir Putin will also attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Tianjin of China. Therefore, the possibility of a Putin-Xi Jinping-Modi meeting is high. Before going to China, Narendra Modi will visit Japan, where he will also meet the Japanese Prime Minister. This will be Modi's first visit to China since 2019.

Even if one does not understand the complex calculations of diplomacy, it is quite clear that the significance of the Putin-Xi Jinping-Modi meeting in Tianjin is enormous. As Donald Trump has aroused considerable resentment in the minds of the heads of state or government of most countries of the world by presenting his favorite "tariff punishment" formula, everyone is now looking for an alternative to the US market. A Russia-China-India alliance would be the best way to create that alternative. Again, the heinous genocide and barbarity of Israel in the Gaza Strip have led to the long-standing allies of Western Europe taking a stand against the US government's policies. As a result, Donald Trump is not in a convenient position in world politics. However, there is no reason to think that Donald Trump is unintelligent. He certainly has a calculation of profit in his politics, we who are inferior in intelligence may not understand that.

However, our limited knowledge tells us that a Russia-China-India alliance will create a major challenge for Donald Trump. Pakistan was defeated by Bangladesh in the 1971 Liberation War. However, the biggest diplomatic defeat was suffered by the United States while India and Russia gained a victory. China's defeat can also be said, but China played the role of a long-term supporter for Pakistan at that time, and did not provide direct diplomatic support like the United States. Therefore, in the final sense, the diplomatic defeat is the United States. Since 1971, the United States' military control in the Indian Ocean region has weakened and the United States has not been able to strengthen it sufficiently. On the contrary, China's dominance in this region has increased day by day. China has expanded its control beyond the Indian Ocean through the Pacific Ocean and even along the coast of Africa.

The only way for the United States to prevent China's continued dominance was to maintain good relations with India and to create and maintain tension between India and China. The United States has managed to do that so far. Because the US has managed to do so, it has a favourable influence in the Indian Ocean region. The United States has developed friendships with Japan, South Korea, and even its once formidable enemy Vietnam due to India's role. India's role is also important in maintaining relations with Central Asian countries that have gained independence from the former Soviet Union, such as Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan. At the same time, in South Asian countries India also plays an important role in maintaining the US sphere of influence by blocking China's attempts to expand its influence.

But this time, Donald Trump's stubborn stance indicates a radical change in the situation. A difference in Trump's policy was seen through building a friendship with the military junta of Myanmar. For so long, the United States, whether it was a Democrat or a Republican, had a staunchly opposed position against the military junta of Myanmar. On the other hand, there was also talk of the United States' continued efforts to support the Arakan Army and use the Arakan Army to establish a new independent state in the Akyab Port region. But after the end of the India-Pakistan war, another important change was seen in Trump's policy. And that is the withdrawal of some important US sanctions on the Myanmar military junta after many years. At the same time, the dominance of the Arakan Army suddenly faded. This suggests that the US's efforts to establish a new independent state with the Arakan Army, leaving Akyab Port in the middle, have temporarily declined. And the reason for this decline may be the agreement between India and China to retain control of the port. Perhaps, that agreement will be solidified in the Tianjin meeting. And if that happens, the regional political landscape of South Asia and Southeast Asia will also change.

During the 1971 Liberation War, both the United States and China took a stand against the establishment of an independent Bangladesh due to their anti-India and anti-Russian policies. However, four months after Bangladesh became independent, the United States recognized independent Bangladesh on April 4, 1972. And China recognized it on August 31, 1975. This shows how strong China's opposition to India was at that time! This also proves that the diplomatic position of China, which is very arrogant in diplomacy, cannot adapt to reality as quickly as the United States can. It goes without saying that if there is a Russia-China-India alliance, the influence of the United States in the South Asian region will be reduced to almost zero. The military junta of the new ally Myanmar is also not capable of creating a very positive position for the United States. Rather, the big question will be what will happen to the military junta that has been under China's control so far in the face of China's challenge.

And for this reason, if there is a Russia-China-India alliance, its impact on Bangladesh will be both immediate and far-reaching. As an immediate impact, India will try to strengthen its influence on Bangladesh. In that case, China will support India on the Bangladesh issue. On the other hand, the United States will try to maintain its influence by using the Myanmar junta as much as possible to create various kinds of pressure on neighbouring Bangladesh. In particular, the United States will be more enthusiastic about using the Rohingya crisis for its interests. And as a far-reaching impact, there will be new tensions or polarization in Bangladesh's relations with the United States' closest allies in world politics. The same type of tensions and polarization will also apply to the countries in the Russia and China circle.

Therefore, if there is a new polarization in world politics, Bangladesh will have to fall into that dilemma. The United States or the Russia-China-India alliance? Protecting the interests of the United States or China or accepting India's bigotry? No matter which way the umbrella is held, the path out of the complex maze of diplomacy will indeed be more complicated.

However, there are still many days left until the Tianjin meeting. In the meantime, Trump may come up with a new trump card, which may lead to new tensions in China-India relations. And something else may also happen. For example, Donald Trump may organize a friendly chess match with Putin, Narendra Modi may go to Washington after completing his China visit, Trump may go on vacation to Delhi or Beijing, and even Xi Jinping may attend a reception at the White House! It is always true that there is no final word in diplomacy.

Rased Mehedi: Editor, Views Bangladesh