BNP finds itself isolated in politics!

In the country's political arena, despite once being at the doorstep of power, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) now finds itself largely isolated. Leadership instability, the failure of sustained movements, the disintegration of alliance politics, and a marginal position on the international stage—all these factors have left the party effectively cornered. This isolation has become even more pronounced in the post-coup reality following August 5, 2024.

Division Over PR System

On September 18, several Islamic parties, including Jamaat-e-Islami, held a protest rally in Dhaka with a five-point demand. Their main demand was for elections under a Proportional Representation (PR) system. The Islamist parties believe this system would make it easier for all parties to secure seats in parliament and bring balance to multi-party democracy.
However,the BNP has opposed this demand from the outset. Analysts believe the BNP wants to keep alive its possibility of returning to power alone, while the Islamic parties want to strengthen their own position in parliament. This has created a new kind of division within opposition politics.

On the other hand, the parties now demanding the PR system on the streets were part of the BNP-led alliance for the past two decades. Merely for being in that alliance, their leaders and activists endured various forms of persecution. Yet today, they are positioning themselves against the BNP.

A New Chapter in Politics

On August 5, 2024, facing a student and public uprising, the then Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina left the country for India. The fall of the Awami League, which had been in power for over 15 consecutive years, brought a major change in the country's politics.
Subsequently,an interim government was formed with Dr. Muhammad Yunus at its head. This government's goals were to curb corruption, restructure democratic institutions, re-establish human rights, and hold a transparent election. To this end, multiple commissions were formed—such as for electoral system reform, corruption investigation, administrative reform, and investigating enforced disappearances and killings, and ensuring accountability of law enforcement agencies.

While the fall of the Awami League sparked hope among the general public, the situation turned opposite for the BNP. This is because they failed to establish themselves in the public mind as the main force for change.

Breakup of Alliance Politics

The 20-party alliance was once the BNP's greatest strength. But now that alliance is practically defunct. Jamaat-e-Islami and the Islami Andolan have chosen separate paths, and Dr. Kamal Hossain's Jatiya Oikya Front also did not hold.
After the fall of the Awami League,Jamaat has become active again on the ground. Through union-based organizations and student wings, they are re-establishing their influence at the rural level. Analysts say a significant portion of the BNP's traditional rural vote bank is now shifting towards Jamaat. Consequently, the BNP is now competing not only with the Awami League but also with Jamaat.

Rise of New Forces

After Sheikh Hasina's fall, new parties and alliances have emerged on the political landscape—such as the Gono Odhikar Parishad, Nagorik Oikya, NCP, and various left-leaning parties. They are gaining popularity through social media-dependent politics and among the urban middle class. The younger generation is also leaning towards them. This is further squeezing the BNP's space.

Series of Failed Movements

Even before the fall of the Awami League, the BNP repeatedly failed in its anti-government movements. Particularly, the 2024 movement demanding a caretaker government was a major initiative, but they failed to show the expected strength on the streets.
Analysts believe the main reasons are unclear leadership,a weak organizational structure, an inability to sustain continuous programs, and the police's harsh crackdowns. This created a public perception that 'the BNP announces programs, but ultimately can't deliver.' The youth also became disillusioned. The mark of that failure remains with the party even after Sheikh Hasina's fall.

London's Directives vs. Street Realities

BNP Chairperson Khaleda Zia has been ill for a long time and is practically out of politics.Acting Chairman Tarique Rahman is leading the party from London. But street-level leaders complain that his directives often arrive late and are out of sync with reality.

As a result, movements fail to gain momentum. Even in the open environment under the interim government, the BNP has failed to create a new generation of leadership. Party leaders and activists report that although the fear of cases and arrests has somewhat decreased, organizational weaknesses persist.

BNP 'Marginalized' in International Equation

After August 5, the international community quickly recognized the interim government. The United Nations, the United States, and the European Union welcomed the democratic reforms. India remained silent, while China and Russia are busy protecting their own interests.
However,analysts believe the BNP has failed to conduct effective lobbying. There are also no visible diplomatic initiatives. It is perceived that the BNP is in a marginal position in the international political equation. Consequently, they are unable to influence future political calculations.

Economy and Public Expectations

Bangladesh is now in an economic crisis. Inflation, the dollar crisis, unemployment, and a slump in remittances—all together are increasing public discontent. Although the interim government has taken reformist initiatives, the crisis persists.
The public wants change,but the BNP is unable to convert this discontent into political capital.

Uncertainty on Electoral Field

The 2026 national election is approaching. However, the BNP has not yet announced a clear strategy. They are in a dilemma—should they contest alone or form an alliance? What will their relationship with Jamaat be? Will they compromise on the PR system?

The party is mired in uncertainty—if they boycott like in 2014, they will be weakened; if they participate like in 2018, allegations of vote rigging may arise.

Image Crisis: From Mitford to Universities

BNP was once the most acceptable political force for the marginalized people. But even after the fall of the Awami League, the party could not hold onto that position. A shortage of candidates in local government elections, losing the trust of the urban middle class and young voters, coupled with allegations of extortion and tender manipulation—all have plunged the BNP into a major image crisis.

The Mitford murder incident has intensified this crisis. Furthermore, the dismal performance of the student wing, Chhatra Dal, in recent student union elections at Dhaka University and Jahangirnagar University shows that trust in the BNP is waning even at the grassroots level. The results directly reflect allegations of looting and extortion against party workers across the country.

Analysts' Perspective

Political analysts said BNP's biggest weakness is strategic ambiguity. They cannot wage a successful movement, and if they participate in elections, they lose. The public, not seeing a clear roadmap, is looking for alternatives.

One analyst said, "If the BNP fails to capitalize on the opportunities presented by the interim government, it will become marginalized by Jamaat and new political forces."

BNP's Reaction

The party's Secretary General, Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir, has denied claims that the BNP is isolated in politics. He believes certain quarters are running a disinformation campaign on social media to prove they are alone. Although he did not name anyone directly, he blamed Jamaat-Shibir and the NCP.