BNP likely to win, projects The New York Editorial analysis

Bangladesh is set to hold a genuinely competitive election on February 12 for the first time since 2008, and for the first time in the country's history, the Awami League will not be on the ballot.

Sheikh Hasina was ousted in a student-led mass uprising in August 2024. This uprising did not merely change the ruler; it completely redrew the country's entire political landscape.

Poll analysis and projections
Analysing the results of seven major national polls—from the International Republican Institute to Inovision Consulting—the New York Editorial projects that the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) is set to win an effective majority in the 300-seat 13th National Parliamentary Election. However, the margin of victory and the degree of uncertainty are far greater than many assume.

This analysis highlights what the poll data reveals and conceals, and how Bangladesh's first-past-the-post (FPTP) electoral system will translate even slender vote margins into vast seat disparities. FPTP is a system in which the candidate who receives the most votes wins, regardless of the margin.

Polling and data gaps
Every poll conducted since the fall of the Hasina government has shown the BNP ahead of Jamaat-e-Islami. However, the margin varies significantly across surveys. For instance, the Narrative/IILD poll shows a gap of just 1.1 per cent between the two parties, while Inovision's latest panel study places BNP 21.8 points ahead.

These discrepancies are not random; they are largely the result of different methodologies. Narrative Consortium's poll of 22,174 respondents across 295 seats provides a snapshot of a specific moment. Inovision, by contrast, recontacted 5,147 individuals previously interviewed, making it the only reliable method for understanding genuine shifts in public opinion over time.

The Awami League's vast vote bank
The most critical aspect of this election is the Awami League vote. The party consistently secured between 35 and 48 per cent of the total vote. With the party currently under sanction, nearly 40 million voters must seek new political allegiances. According to the CRF/BEPOS poll, nearly half of these voters are leaning towards the BNP. This massive structural realignment of political allegiance could deliver the BNP a single-party majority.

Jamaat, however, is the second beneficiary of this vote bank. Nearly 30 per cent of former Awami League voters indicated they would vote for an Islamist party—the same party that was banned under Sheikh Hasina, and whose top leaders were executed or disappeared.

British journalist David Bergman offers two explanations. First, the BNP's harsh treatment of Awami League supporters at the local level has led some to choose Jamaat as the 'lesser evil'. Second, some Awami voters may be choosing Jamaat to prove Hasina's claim that without her, Bangladesh would become a fundamentalist state.

The FPTP effect
Bangladesh's first-past-the-post electoral system is among the most disproportional in the democratic world. In 300 single-member constituencies, the candidate with the most votes wins. This system severely 'punishes' second-place parties and rewards geographically dispersed support over concentrated strength in specific areas.

The implications for the 2026 election are profound. According to the Narrative poll, even if Jamaat trails BNP by just 3-5 per cent nationally, the electoral system could produce a seat gap of 60 to 100. Jamaat's vote is largely concentrated in specific strongholds in the north-west and south-west. The BNP's support, conversely, is evenly distributed nationwide—a decisive advantage in an FPTP system for winning seats.

Jamaat has never won more than 18 parliamentary seats and has never crossed 12 per cent of the vote. The 29-34 per cent support claimed for them in current polls would, therefore, represent a historic transformation. This means either a genuine 'political earthquake' is occurring in Bangladesh, or some surveys are inflating Jamaat's support.

Three equations that will determine the outcome

1. Rebel candidates
The BNP's greatest vulnerability at present is internal conflict. Ninety-two leaders denied party nominations are contesting as independent or 'rebel' candidates in 79 constituencies. Many are former members of parliament or senior district-level leaders.

In at least 46 constituencies, these rebels possess formidable personal vote banks. The electoral arithmetic is simple: in a straight fight between BNP and Jamaat, BNP wins easily. But where a BNP rebel splits the vote, Jamaat can prevail with as little as 35 per cent of the vote in a three-cornered contest. Mathematical models suggest these rebel candidates could cost BNP between 15 and 30 seats.

2. Youth turnout
Jamaat's student wing has secured absolute victories in student union elections at the country's four major universities. Among first-time voters, 37.4 per cent prefer Jamaat. Currently, 44 per cent of all voters—approximately 56 million people—are Gen Z or the younger generation.

If youth turnout exceeds the national average by 10 to 15 per cent, Jamaat's seat count will increase significantly. Should these young voters stay away from the polls, the party's seat tally will drop sharply.

3. Undecided or swing voters
Every survey shows that between 15 and 35 per cent of respondents remain undecided or have declined to state their preference. The Narrative poll places 17 per cent of voters in the undecided category. Of these, 30 per cent said they do not trust any political party.

These voters represent the election's greatest uncertainty. If they split evenly among all parties, the BNP's current lead holds. But if they break 2:1 in favour of Jamaat, the contest will become dramatically closer.

Seat projection
Total parliamentary seats: 300
Single-party majority: 151

Probable seat distribution
BNP and alliance: 155–215
Jamaat and NCP: 55–110
Jatiya Party: 5–18
Islami Andolan: 2–10
Others/independent: 10–35

This projection is constructed by averaging poll shares, applying an FPTP model, and adjusting for the impact of rebel candidates and voter turnout.

Most probable seat count (central estimate)
BNP and alliance: 185
Jamaat and NCP: 80
Jatiya Party: 10
Islami Andolan: 5
Others/independent: 20

Four possible scenarios

1. BNP single-party majority (50 per cent probability)
In this equation, BNP Chairperson Tarique Rahman becomes prime minister with a substantial popular mandate. This scenario essentially reflects the Inovision panel data. Voter turnout will exceed 70 per cent, and the emotional tide following the death of BNP Chairperson Khaleda Zia will pull swing voters towards the BNP.

Projection:
BNP: 185–215 seats
Jamaat: 55–80 seats

2. BNP narrow majority (20 per cent probability)
Rebel candidates and Jamaat's robust grassroots campaigning will reduce the BNP's winning margin in 30 to 40 constituencies. The party will form a government, but with few surplus seats, potentially requiring greater reliance on alliance partners.

Projection:
BNP: 155–185 seats
Jamaat: 80–100 seats

3. Hung parliament (20 per cent probability)
If the Narrative/IILD poll proves accurate, this scenario could materialise. BNP rebels inflict maximum damage, and the Jamaat wave among youth voters manifests in reality. Neither alliance secures the requisite majority, ushering in a period of coalition horse-trading.

Projection:
BNP: 130–155 seats
Jamaat: 90–110 seats

4. Jamaat-led alliance victory (10 per cent probability)
This outcome requires everything to align in Jamaat's favour: surging youth turnout, rebel candidates splitting BNP votes in over 50 seats, and former Awami League voters abstaining—historically unprecedented, though this election is primed for the unprecedented.

Projection:
BNP: <130 seats
Jamaat: 130+ seats

Conclusion
The New York Editorial's central projection is that the February 12 election will see the BNP, under Tarique Rahman's leadership, win approximately 185 seats and form the next government. Jamaat-e-Islami, meanwhile, is poised to achieve its best-ever electoral result, potentially securing 60 to 100 seats. This would establish the party as the principal opposition force, reshaping Bangladesh's political landscape for a generation.

Yet the election's deepest uncertainty lies not in who wins, but in the margin of victory. The critical analytical terrain is the gap between a commanding BNP majority of over 210 seats and a precarious majority of 155 seats. And this will be determined by three factors that no poll can fully capture:

The final decision of 17 per cent undecided voters
The impact of the BNP's 92 rebel candidates
Whether Jamaat's committed young voters ultimately turn out

Bangladesh's 128 million voters are poised to deliver a verdict that will influence South Asian geopolitics for the next generation. The evidence suggests the scales tip in the BNP's favour. Yet the same evidence also carries a clear injunction: prepare for the unexpected.