Canada votes in pivotal election shaped by Trump’s influence

Canadians head to the polls on Monday in a critical federal election dramatically reshaped by the actions and rhetoric of U.S. President Donald Trump.

At the start of the year, the Conservative Party appeared poised for a sweeping victory. But Trump's imposition of tariffs and provocative remarks—suggesting Canada could become the “51st state”—upended the political landscape and revived momentum for Mark Carney’s Liberal Party.

Final polls show the Liberals holding a slight lead, though the race has tightened considerably in the past week. Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre remains confident, insisting his party can still clinch a win.

The 36-day campaign concluded on a somber note following a tragic car ramming incident in Vancouver on Saturday night that left 11 dead. Carney canceled a planned Sunday stop in Hamilton to address the nation. The attack, which targeted attendees of a local Filipino festival, cast a shadow over the final days of the campaign.

Poilievre responded by adding a campaign stop in Mississauga to meet with members of the Filipino community, while Carney continued his push with events across Saskatchewan, Alberta, and British Columbia—regions where Conservative support is strongest.

President Trump’s decision to impose 25% tariffs on Canadian goods, coupled with his inflammatory threats to “annex” the country, ignited both anger and a surge of Canadian nationalism. The tension has even spilled into cultural arenas, with hockey fans booing the U.S. national anthem at games—an emblem of just how deeply bilateral relations have been shaken.

Trump’s outsized presence on the campaign trail has turned the election into, effectively, a referendum on how Canada should navigate its future with a combative U.S. president entering his second term.

Throughout the campaign, Carney, 60, warned of an “existential threat” from Trump, claiming the U.S. leader aims to “break us so the U.S. can own us.” He has framed himself as the steady hand Canada needs in turbulent times, citing his past experience leading Canada’s central bank during the global financial crisis and the Bank of England during Brexit.

At a campaign stop in Saskatoon on Sunday, Carney reiterated his call for Canada to deepen economic ties with more “reliable trade partners” such as the UK and the European Union. Earlier in the campaign, he declared that the long-standing relationship Canada once had with the U.S. is “over.”