China-India relations in new world order

Everyone knows that a new world order has been formed. In this new system, the position of each country—who is forming new friendships with whom, who is supporting whom militarily and economically—is being re-shaped. For instance, the long-standing bond between Europe and the United States saw a crack, particularly after Donald Trump became President. Their relationship is now more commercial and win-win rather than cordial. Their common interest is in standing against socialism and maintaining Western influence. Beyond that, the blind support the United States had previously given to Europe, and the various benefits extended, were withdrawn by the Trump administration. This has put Europe in a somewhat difficult position, and Europe is now busy rapidly increasing its military strength. That is, it no longer wants to be fully dependent on the United States as before. As a result, alongside the United States, Russia, and China, Europe is likely to emerge as a visible military power soon.

On the other hand, during the Cold War, the relationship between China and Russia was extremely fragile. But after the dissolution of the Soviet Union, following Russian President Boris Yeltsin’s visit to China in 1992 and Chinese Premier Li Peng’s visit to Russia in 1996, relations between the two countries gradually improved. They slowly came to realise that their common rival was the United States and Europe. Even when Russia attacked Georgia in 2008, China opposed Russia. But since then, the relationship between the two countries has steadily warmed. This is because both Russia and China found a common ground; they recognised the unilateral dominance of the United States. Both countries started to view the increasing influence of the United States as a threat to themselves. Now, the relationship between the two is so warm that they have decided on unlimited cooperation.

Despite sanctions against Russia, China continues to provide full support, buying Russian fuel and in some cases extending military assistance. Meanwhile, on the Taiwan issue, China has been receiving implicit support from Russia. It is being said worldwide that a war over Taiwan could erupt into a devastating conflict at any moment. In such a scenario, China will certainly have Russia by its side. Although modern Russia is a capitalist democratic state, President Putin has a special affinity for socialist ideals. He believes that the Soviet Union was dismantled through a conspiracy and considers it the greatest tragedy of the 20th century.

On the other hand, while China has leaned towards open market policies, it remains uncompromising about its socialist governance system. Because of this, the friendship between China and Russia has strengthened to such an extent that it has put Western influence around the world under threat. Now, in almost all global conflicts—large or small—what we observe are proxy wars between the United States and Europe versus China and Russia. In Ukraine, the conflict is almost direct between these two blocs.

Militarily and economically, China used to be quite weak. But over the past 20–30 years, China has transformed into a major power. Not only that, the United States has realised that engaging in direct conflict with China has now become a significant risk. China is no longer the China of 40 years ago. California is the most economically powerful state in the United States. In 2023, California’s Governor Gavin Newsom visited China. He signed trade agreements with China and will expand trade.

A few days ago, he remarked on China's advanced technology, saying that while China is advancing at rocket speed, the United States is moving at the speed of a bicycle. On the other hand, China has infiltrated the United States to such an extent that it cannot be taken lightly. In 2024, China purchased $759 billion worth of US Federal Treasury bonds. That means the Federal Reserve is indebted to China in this amount. Politically, too, China's influence is visible within the United States. China hires lobbyists and invests money in US elections. Numerous Chinese companies are so entangled with the United States that without their production, the country would almost grind to a halt. In technology and military tech, China is on the verge of surpassing the United States. Many countries in Africa and South America have entered China’s sphere of influence. In terms of naval power, China has already overtaken the United States. In cyber and space technology, China is becoming a threat to the United States. The United States has detailed calculations on all of this. That is why, if you notice, apart from loudly speaking on the Taiwan issue, the United States remains silent on China in other areas.

Even someone as outspoken as Trump does not make any negative remarks about President Xi Jinping. Instead, when Xi is mentioned, he says, “Fantastic man.” The United States had announced tariffs of up to 245 percent on Chinese trade. But immediately afterwards, it realised this would be a suicidal move. On July 28, high-level trade discussions between the United States and China began in Stockholm. In the end, there is no doubt that a compromise will have to be reached in the tariff war with China.

What is the United States’ position regarding India? Donald Trump had a close personal relationship with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Modi also supported him and his policies. Globally, it was believed that beyond state-level relations, Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and US President Donald Trump had a close personal bond. But now, it is believed that Modi has stepped away from that circle. It is thought that Modi miscalculated, and it backfired.

In June 2023, Modi visited the United States. At the time, President Joe Biden, a Democrat, was in office. Modi gifted First Lady Jill Biden a diamond ring worth $20,000. Biden and Harris’s warmth towards Modi was not well received by Trump. But he remained silent. There are 5.2 million Indian-origin voters in the United States, who are extremely important to both parties. Then, in September 2024, just before the US elections, Modi visited the United States to attend QUAD and other meetings. At that time, Trump said at an event in Michigan, “My friend Modi is coming next week to meet me.” He repeatedly described Modi as “fantastic” in his usual manner. But the Indian Ministry of Foreign Affairs did not schedule a meeting between Modi and Trump. Perhaps Modi and his diplomats believed that Indian-origin Kamala Harris was going to become President.

In order to maintain close ties with the next US administration, Modi did not meet with Trump. But fate intervened. Trump was unexpectedly elected President. Not only that, he won a strong majority in both the Senate and Congress. Afterwards, although he referred to Modi as “my friend,” in reality, the Trump administration began behaving quite antagonistically towards India. So far, not a single decision has indicated any special favour towards India. Trump deported illegal immigrants from various countries. Among the few whose citizens were deported with handcuffs and humiliation by the US administration, India was one. In May, during the four-day war between India and Pakistan, Vice President JD Vance initially commented, “This is not our business.” Over the following four days, although Trump called for a ceasefire, he made no comments suggesting even slight support for India. Rather, after the war, he held a one-hour closed-door meeting with Pakistan’s army chief Asim Munir. Such a lengthy closed-door meeting between a US President and the army chief of a Third World country is very rare.

Trump did not grant India any tariff concessions. While a 10 percent tariff was announced for several countries, a 26 percent tariff was imposed on India. India’s trade delegation led by Rajesh Agarwal held five rounds of talks with the Trump administration over this. But nothing came of it. Moreover, Trump threatened an additional 10 percent duty on BRICS members, considered anti-American.

Balancing relationships with both sides is a strategy. India was an example of this. But at present, it has failed completely. Though India is a BRICS member, it joined the US-led anti-China group QUAD instead of focusing on the Global South. Joining QUAD has brought India only multifaceted problems, with no benefits. It is now clear that the United States wants to use India as a counterbalance against China. On the other hand, the United States is no longer a visibly supportive power for India’s needs. They simply flatter India by calling it a “great partner” in the Indo-Pacific region.

India has taken note of all this. Now India has a new opportunity to build friendly commercial and political relations with China. In July, Indian Foreign Minister S Jaishankar visited China for discussions during the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit. The visit was very warm and fruitful. During discussions with Jaishankar, Chinese Vice President Han Zheng said that realistic cooperation between India and China must be advanced. The existing mutual concerns should be resolved through dialogue to ensure a strong bilateral relationship. Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar said that normalising relations would benefit both sides. He tweeted that India is happy to support China’s presidency of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.

India has long been unhappy with China’s actions regarding Aksai Chin and Arunachal Pradesh. China is dissatisfied over the Dalai Lama issue and India's current government's leniency towards the West. However, despite various disagreements and rivalries, China does not see India as a threat. China is now entirely focused on the Belt and Road Initiative and on Taiwan and the South China Sea. Many believe a new dimension of war could break out in the South China Sea at any moment. The United States, Australia, Japan, and the Philippines are preparing militarily against China there. The United States would want to involve India as a major power in this preparation.

In my humble opinion, under no circumstances should India fall into this trap. Recently, India conducted joint military exercises with the Philippines. It was scheduled. The matter should remain limited to that. Once there was a slogan: India and China are brothers. If the relationship can return to that point, it will be extremely positive for both India and China. No matter how much power the United States builds up in the South China Sea, China's current formidable military prowess has become unbeatable. The United States knows this. Therefore, it only wants to use China’s neighbouring countries as proxies.

The hopeful sign is that the ice between China and India has already started melting. In October 2024, the meeting between President Xi and Narendra Modi at the BRICS summit and Jaishankar’s participation in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization have significantly thawed tensions. Since July, India has started issuing visas to Chinese citizens after five years. A few months ago, China also started issuing visas to Indian tourists. Jaishankar said that both countries would work to ease the widespread hostility between their peoples.

If India builds a strong relationship with China, the United States and its allies will not take it well. Especially, they will try to exert economic pressure on India. They may even seize opportunities to interfere in India’s internal politics. But India must remember Columbia University professor Jeffrey Sachs’s comment on the Ukraine issue: trying to form an alliance with a distant country while maintaining hostile relations with a neighbouring one never ends well.

Mohsin Habib: Journalist and international affairs analyst