Congress-led UDF leads Kerala vote count, signals possible shift in power

India’s Kerala state is witnessing a significant political shift as vote counting trends show the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) moving strongly ahead, while the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF) falls behind.

According to the latest counting updates on Monday (May 4), the UDF is leading in more than 90 assembly seats, putting it on course to potentially form the next government. In contrast, the incumbent LDF is ahead in just over 40 constituencies, indicating a weakening position. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is trailing with limited leads in a handful of seats.

Counting began in the morning, with postal ballots initially giving the UDF a clear advantage, broadly aligning with pre-poll survey predictions. Early trends showed the UDF leading in 60–68 seats, but its advantage expanded steadily in subsequent rounds to over 95 seats.

The LDF has suffered setbacks with several cabinet ministers trailing in their constituencies. Ministers V N Vasavan, R Bindu, Veena George, J Chinchurani, Ramachandran Kadannappalli and M B Rajesh are reportedly behind in their respective seats.

Significant losses have also been reported for sitting MLAs K K Shailaja, Dalima and U Prathibha, further adding to concerns within the Left camp.

One of the most closely watched contests is in Dharmadam, the constituency of Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, where early rounds indicate he is trailing by over 2,000 votes against UDF candidate Abdul Rasheed.

In Nemom constituency, early leads shifted rapidly, with BJP state president Rajeev Chandrasekhar moving ahead after initially trailing LDF candidate V Sivankutty. In Manjeshwaram, BJP candidate K Surendran has maintained an early lead.

Several other senior LDF leaders, including O R Kelu, P Rajeev, K B Ganesh Kumar, V Abdurahiman, A K Saseendran and Roshy Augustine, are also reportedly trailing in their constituencies.

Analysts say voter sentiment appears influenced by anti-incumbency factors, including concerns over inflation, unemployment and local governance issues, following years of Left rule in the state.

The UDF, meanwhile, has campaigned on promises of administrative change and solutions to local grievances, which appears to have resonated with a significant section of voters.

While counting is still underway and final results are awaited, current trends suggest a major political realignment in Kerala, with the UDF strongly positioned to return to power.