El Nino may intensify between July and September, warns UN

The United Nations' weather agency, World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned that El Nino could rapidly strengthen between July and September. The UN agency said this could significantly increase the risk of extreme weather events, including droughts, floods and heatwaves, across various parts of the world. Countries have been urged to prepare in advance to mitigate potential damage.

In its 'Global Seasonal Climate Update' published on Friday, July 3, the WMO said El Nino conditions have already begun in the tropical Pacific Ocean and are likely to strengthen rapidly in the coming months. According to the agency's classification, this El Nino could reach the 'strong' category, the third-highest of four levels.

El Nino is a natural climate cycle in which sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean rise above normal, affecting global wind patterns, rainfall and temperature.

The WMO said global climate models show 'high confidence' in this forecast. The agency fears that temperature anomalies in key parts of the equatorial Pacific could exceed 2 degrees Celsius.

The report said most populated areas outside the polar regions are expected to experience above-normal temperatures over the next three months. South Asia, including Bangladesh, and large parts of Australia are likely to receive below-normal rainfall, while parts of the southwestern United States may see above-normal precipitation.

WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said El Nino would increase the risk of drought, heavy rainfall and heatwaves in many regions. She stressed the importance of preparedness and early warning systems in climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture and health.

The agency also said there is no evidence that climate change is increasing the frequency or intensity of El Nino. However, its impacts could be more severe in a warmer world, as warmer oceans and atmosphere create favourable conditions for extreme weather.