A Second Trump Presidency – A Pandora’s Box for the Global Order

According to a poll, 40% of Americans think foreign policy should be a primary issue in this election, which shows that number has nearly doubled since last year. How the U.S. impacts global affairs should be a priority for the U.S. Presidential election. However, the world has no say in who should lead the U.S., while the U.S. leader continues to dictate how the world should be governed; this paradox has continued to bewilder, frustrate, and even intrigue foreign affairs experts. In the ongoing discourse on how the next U.S. election will turn out, there is a complex debate on what a second Trump presidency would look like. Arguably, in his first term, Trump rewrote the global diplomacy rulebook. He had also transformed the domestic political landscape, which saw the attacks on the capitol, an incident that was not expected to occur in the U.S. However, this piece will focus on how a second Trump Presidency would impact international affairs.

Trump has promised to reevaluate the NATO alliance and reshape global trade. He avoided chiefly explaining how he would handle the conflicts in Europe and the Middle East, but he claimed that he could settle the Ukraine war in 24 hours.

Regarding NATO, Trump's critics say that he is reducing the importance of a 75-year alliance to the mere concept that the U.S. is an army for hire for the NATO members; this concept will strain trust with U.S. foreign allies. This approach rejects the idea that the U.S. is primarily responsible for shaping a liberal order, an apparent withdrawal from 80 years of the U.S. strategy. It should be noted that these three powers see the United States as their primary opponent. The U.S. has been a guarantor of regional security for decades – in Europe and the Indo-Pacific via alliances since World War II and the Middle East since the Cold War. The U.S. is thus standing in the way of all three countries' efforts to expand their regional power. The U.S. has not done an excellent job in shaping the world for the better; the ongoing conflicts and other conflicts in the last two decades and the unwanted and illicit interventions of the U.S. across the globe are grave testament to the U.S.' failure to do so. The situation openly repudiated the central norm of liberal democracy, which would dishearten those who believe in it and encourage those who oppose it. With Russia threatening Europe and China as a peer competitor, alliances will be more critical than ever, not just for its allies but also for the U.S.

Another Trump presidency will be particularly unpleasant for Germany. The issue of burden-sharing for European defense will be back on the table more strongly than before. The current chancellor, Olaf Scholz, is highly risk-averse. He avoids a high foreign or security policy profile and is unlikely to make any significant preemptive investment or assume a leading role in providing military support for Ukraine.

Russia, China, and Iran are increasingly working together to change the US-led international order. Although these three countries do not agree on everything, they are together in their desire to become regional powers and change the world order, which is not the authoritarian dictatorship of the U.S. Trump's victory in the U.S. may help their cause. These three countries view the U.S. as the primary obstacle in all three regions in which they want to incur influence. The U.S. has been a guarantor of regional security in Europe and the Indo-Pacific through alliances since World War II ended and in the Middle East since the Cold War.

Relations with China will also be under review. Trump will focus on changing the relations, but the results may not be dramatic because hostility toward China's rise is bipartisan. However, the opposition to China would be less about ideology under Trump, who cares little about the differences between autocracies and democracies. Arguably, he prefers the former. Thus, under Trump, relations with China would just become a contest over power, with Trump trying to keep the U.S. on top. He might try to turn Russia against China, as Nixon did China against the Soviet Union. For doing so, Trump may use the idea of abandoning Ukraine as bait.

For Ukraine, Trump's position on the war remains unclear at best. Regarding Ukraine, the Republican Party is divided between isolationists and interventionists. Trump withheld support from Kyiv in 2019 to force the Ukrainian public prosecutor's office to attest to allegedly corrupt activities by Joe Biden's family. In a survey by the Wall Street Journal, 56% of Republicans opine that the U.S. is doing too much for Ukraine. Among the population, only 37% of respondents held this opinion. This strain of public opinion would remain a political factor for President Trump.

Russian President Vladimir Putin is hoping to reach an accommodation with Trump on Ukraine that will bring Russia closer to its goal of dominance in Eastern and East-Central Europe and, ultimately, about establishing a commanding position in a Europe regarded as weak and in decline.

Chinese reactions are likely to be mixed. China will be worried about a second presidency of Trump, a populist leader who will likely push for disengaging the U.S. and Chinese economies. Trump could end up on an isolationist course that forces U.S. allies and partners in Asia to bow at least partially to Chinese influence.

In Southeast Asia, except the Philippines, which has openly sided with Washington despite any blowback from China, other major Southeast Asian countries have attempted to maintain their traditional hedging approach between the two great powers. However, their days of playing it both ways with Trump in power may end. Under a second Trump administration, tensions with China may reach a point where Southeast Asian countries, which are long skilled at balancing, will face challenges in maintaining this delicate balance.

Iran may continue to face difficulties as Trump was the one who removed the U.S. from the Iran deal that Europe wanted too much to work. The Gulf monarchies could count on U.S. support in the Middle East, as they did during Trump's first term.

In India, the BJP and Modi, with his allies, have echoed Trump in hitting hard against Muslims, bashing and muzzling independent media outlets. Trump's renewed Presidency would mean more troubling developments could lie ahead in both countries. International criticism, particularly from the U.S., is one of the few constraints the Modi regime would like to avoid. Trump would offer respite from this criticism because of his "ideological brotherhood" with Modi.

There is also the critical factor of Israel. Biden is a puppet of the Israelis. He has shown his deep-rooted loyalty to the Zionist cause since the inception of his political career. His Presidency has become the epitome of that loyalty. Trump is intelligent enough to realize how deeply entrenched the Zionists are in the U.S. economy, security, and politics. Thus, he would want to avoid riling up the Israeli lobby. However, to some extent, Trump is a showman who loves to surprise the audience. It was Trump who truly sowed the seed of this Gaza genocide by recognizing Jerusalem as the capital of Israel. Trump also has poised himself as a master negotiator. He would want to deliver on this persona by forcing the Israelis to a ceasefire that would ultimately be, in some way or the other, in favor and beneficial to the Israelis. However, the ceasefire would be achieved, and Trump could thump his chest, saying he is the man the world or the U.S. needs. The current Israeli regime led by Netanyahu may not like it, but the Zionist lobby may agree to it, seeing long-term benefits. Thus, it is unlikely that the current Israeli regime would want a Trump return.

There is also the issue of immigration. Trump is likely to ensure a tenfold increase in the volume of deportations — to more than a million per year. He wants to revive the "safe third country" agreements with Central American countries. He also wants to expand them to Africa and elsewhere. The aim is to send people seeking asylum to other countries. The same way Rishi Sunak tried to do with Rwanda but failed. Trump is very likely to succeed. He plans to suspend the nation's refugee program and once again bar visitors from primarily Muslim countries, reinstating a version of the travel ban that President Biden revoked in 2021.

If Trump introduces a 10 percent tariff on all imports, the world economy will suffer significant implications. This would be a big blow to the World Trade Organization and repudiate the U.S. commitments to lower tariff barriers over many decades.

Climate change efforts will also be impacted. Trump will likely require the U.S. to withdraw from agreements and initiatives to promote clean energy in emerging and developing countries.

As an article in the New York Times has said, Trump likes to occupy two identities: threat and negotiator. He will continue to reflect the same personality throughout his second Presidency, rewriting foreign policy books, changing the world order, and evolving U.S. alliances and competitions in ways no one can forecast.

Author: Political and International Affairs Analyst.