A year of fear, liberation and uncertainty: Political turmoil unfolds

The 12th National Election made 2023 a highly discussed and significant year for the country's political parties, more so than in recent years. However, 2024 has emerged as one of the most critical years since independence due to the ousting of the former Prime Minister after nearly 16 years in power and her flight to India, leading to a new political realignment. Whether this shift will result in a new political settlement driven by demands for reform or a rebranding of old politics remains uncertain. Nevertheless, the direction of the fractured political landscape will largely depend on the interim government.

The past year can be divided into two distinct phases: the first half reflected the dominance of the Awami League (moving towards authoritarianism), and the latter half saw the fall of Sheikh Hasina, a political shift, and the resounding presence of Islamic politics.

The year began with elections involving 29 parties, as the BNP, Jamaat-e-Islami, and a 12-party alliance, along with the Left Unity Front, boycotted the polls. Controversies over vote counting, the downfall of the Awami League government triggered by quota reform movements, the exile of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, rumors of new political parties led by anti-discrimination movement leaders, the registration of a new political party, and the rise of Islamic politics have collectively made 2024 a historic year in Bangladesh's political timeline.

Controversial Election Marks the Beginning of the Year

On January 7, 2024, the 12th National Parliamentary Election saw the Awami League, led by Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, secure over a two-thirds majority, winning 222 out of the 298 declared seats in the 300-seat parliament. This victory allowed the party to form the government for an unprecedented fourth consecutive term. Of the 28 political parties that participated, 24 failed to win a single seat, with all but one of their candidates losing their deposits.

In this election, the Jatiya Party secured 11 seats, while Jasad, the Workers' Party, and the Kalyan Party won one seat each. Notably, all 11 Jatiya Party members won with the support of the Awami League, which withdrew its candidates from those constituencies. The Jasad and Workers' Party candidates won using the Awami League’s "Boat" symbol, while the Kalyan Party’s seat was also won with the party’s backing. Among the 62 independent winners, 58 were Awami League members running independently. Additionally, by 3 PM on election day, 14 candidates had boycotted the election.

The election, boycotted by 13 political parties, including the BNP, saw a voter turnout of 26.37% by 3 PM. However, within the next hour, official figures showed voter participation reaching 41.8%, raising widespread skepticism about the credibility of these numbers, both domestically and internationally.

Writer and political analyst Mohiuddin Ahmed remarked that the aftermath of this election raises concerns about the possible establishment of a one-party “democracy” in the country.

Clashes Between AL and BNP Activists Injure 15

As in previous years, the human rights organization Ain o Salish Kendra (ASK) reported on political violence throughout the year. In the first eleven months, there were 597 clashes between political parties, primarily involving the Awami League and BNP during their opposing programs, leaving at least 5,603 people injured. During this period, 88 people lost their lives.

The Politicization of the Anti-Discrimination Movement and the Fall of Sheikh Hasina

In less than two months after the start of the anti-quota or anti-discrimination student movement led by Ganatantrik Chhatra Shakti (Democratic Student Force), former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, whose rule had raised concerns of one-party democracy, was ousted from power.

The movement gained momentum with the active participation of private university students. When police fired upon students during protests, ordinary citizens joined in, fundamentally changing the dynamics of the long-standing opposition against the Awami League-led government, which had been in power for over 15 years.

In 2021, after a gazette abolishing the quota system was challenged in the High Court, the court declared the abolition of the freedom fighter quota illegal on June 5. On June 6, students protested at Dhaka University, demanding the cancellation of the court's ruling to reinstate the quota. However, by July 1, the movement had spread nationwide.

The situation escalated when, on July 16, six students, including Abu Saeed in Rangpur and Wasim in Chittagong, were killed. This turned the movement for ending inequality in government jobs into a politically charged issue.

On August 3, Bangladesh erupted in mass protests, demanding the resignation of the government. Late at night on August 4, the anti-discrimination student movement called for a "Dhaka March" program to press their demand for Sheikh Hasina’s resignation. Facing immense public pressure and mass uprisings, Sheikh Hasina resigned and left the country on August 5. That same day, masses stormed Ganabhaban and the National Parliament building, setting fire to the Bangabandhu Museum on Dhanmondi 32 and the Awami League’s office in Dhanmondi.

According to the Human Rights Support Society, 294 people died on August 5 alone in clashes between police, Awami League activists, and protesters. Between July 16 and August 5, at least 772 people lost their lives.

Formation of the Interim Government

After Sheikh Hasina resigned and left the country on August 5, Army Chief General Waqar-uz-Zaman announced the formation of an interim government. On August 8, Dr. Muhammad Yunus was sworn in as the Chief Adviser of the interim government. Initially composed of 17 members, the cabinet now consists of 23 advisers as of December 20, following the death of Adviser AFM Hasan Arif. Among the current members are three coordinators of the anti-discrimination student movement.

Ban on Jamaat and Its Reversal

On July 29, the 14-party alliance convened to discuss banning Jamaat-e-Islami and its student wing, Islami Chhatra Shibir. On August 1, the government issued a notification banning both organizations. However, after the fall of the government, the Ministry of Home Affairs' Public Security Division revoked the ban on Jamaat-e-Islami and Islami Chhatra Shibir through a notification on August 28.

Diverging Views on Elections Among BNP, Jamaat, and Concerns About Awami League
As discussions about the election roadmap intensified, major political parties, including the BNP, pressed for clarity. Interim government Chief Adviser Dr. Yunus hinted at the possibility of holding the next national election within a year and a half. However, questions about the participation of the ousted Awami League in these elections gained prominence.

On December 19, Badiul Alam Majumdar, head of the Election System Reform Commission and Secretary of Citizens for Good Governance (SUJAN), stated that he saw no legal barriers preventing the Awami League from participating in the upcoming national elections. However, anti-discrimination activists, along with the BNP and several other political groups, opposed the Awami League’s participation without prior accountability.

While the BNP has remained firm on holding elections swiftly, Jamaat has expressed varying opinions, sometimes advocating for delayed elections and at other times favoring reforms before elections.

Revitalized BNP, Organizational Disarray in Awami League

After nearly 16 years, the fall of Sheikh Hasina and the Awami League government has instilled significant confidence within the BNP. However, allegations of misconduct against local BNP leaders and activists are surfacing across the country. Despite these challenges, the BNP is actively forming new committees in various regions.

While the BNP is becoming more organizationally active than ever, the Awami League finds itself in a state of collapse. Caught off guard by the sudden political upheaval, Awami League leaders and activists now find themselves marginalized. Not only have a majority of the general population turned against them, but many disillusioned and mistreated party members have also withdrawn their support.

The party’s tendency to suppress dissent and maintain power through intimidation—labeling its own disgruntled members as affiliated with Jamaat-Shibir and forcing them out—was common practice. On the other hand, in an attempt to strengthen its position, the Awami League actively absorbed Jamaat-Shibir activists or members of rival parties into its ranks. Ironically, this strategy backfired during the successful uprising, leaving the party further destabilized.

Rumors suggest that many top leaders have fled the country, although there is uncertainty about who has left. Some have been arrested while attempting to escape. Most of the remaining leaders are in hiding, creating a severe leadership vacuum within the Awami League. Grassroots leaders report that the party is in organizational disarray and that many members are living in fear and anxiety.

What is most alarming is the absence of effective directives from the party's central leadership months after the upheaval. Communication is reportedly impossible, even over the phone. Leaders and activists in Dhaka and nearby areas express frustration over the lack of support, citing ongoing legal battles and increasing hopelessness. Some are even contemplating leaving politics altogether.

The Year of Jamaat and the Rise of Islamic Politics

The political atmosphere at the start and end of 2024 has been strikingly different. What began with concerns over the establishment of authoritarian secular democracy under the Awami League quickly shifted to the emergence of religious politics following the government’s fall mid-year. This shift has made 2024 a particularly significant year in discussions about Bangladesh's political landscape.

Islamic political parties have always been a critical subject of discussion in Bangladesh. Recently, there have been reports of Jamaat-e-Islami leading efforts to form a new Islamic coalition. The party is said to be holding meetings with various Islamic groups and scholars, working on a framework for the potential alliance.
Alongside Jamaat, this coalition could potentially include Islamic Unity Alliance (Islami Oikya Jote), Khelafat Majlish, and several smaller groups aligned with Islamic politics. However, the history of Jamaat’s activities and its contentious relationships with opposition parties and the government could complicate the success of this initiative.

Criticism of Jamaat and the rise of Islamic politics is not in short supply. The party’s controversial role during Bangladesh’s Liberation War remains a focal point of debate. A significant portion of secular political factions and civil society view this resurgence as a threat to democratic governance. While 2024 may appear to be a promising year for Jamaat and Islamic politics, their long-term stability and influence will depend on their political strategies, public support, and both national and international contexts.

Other Islamic groups remain cautious about forming an alliance with Jamaat. They argue that ideological differences make unity with Jamaat a potentially self-destructive move. Many of these groups have expressed a preference for maintaining ties with the BNP instead.

Organizations like Islami Andolon Bangladesh are also making efforts to foster unity among Islamic parties. They are initially focusing on uniting Qaumi madrasa-based factions before considering talks with Jamaat.

Recently, a consultation meeting took place between Jamaat leaders and the 12-party alliance. However, no formal announcement of a coalition has been made yet.
Meanwhile, rumors suggest the emergence of a new political party linked to the anti-discrimination movement. Leaders associated with the movement have indicated that it will be an Islam-centric political organization.

Formation of New Political Party Rooted in the Anti-Discrimination Movement

Leaders of the anti-discrimination movement have announced that the students who led the protests are set to launch a political party soon. However, the name of this organization has not yet been finalized. They stated that the National Citizens' Committee and the Anti-Discrimination Student Movement would continue to function as non-political forums, while a new political party under a different name will be introduced. Leaders also mentioned that anyone from these two forums could join the new party.

Political leaders have expressed their willingness to welcome any new political party. However, leaders from the BNP, Jatiya Party, and other like-minded parties have warned that if the new party operates under the patronage of the interim government, it could raise questions about the government's neutrality.

Rumors of Tarique Rahman’s Return and Khaleda Zia’s Possible Departure

With the withdrawal of cases against BNP Chairperson Khaleda Zia and Acting Chairperson Tarique Rahman, speculation is rife about Tarique Rahman’s return to Bangladesh. Unconfirmed sources suggest that he may return in the first half of February in the new year. As part of preparations, security arrangements are reportedly being assessed. It is even rumored that a house is being sought for him. A delegation from the United Kingdom has reportedly visited Bangladesh to evaluate security concerns for Tarique Rahman.

Meanwhile, BNP Chairperson Khaleda Zia, who had refrained from traveling abroad during the Awami League regime, is now likely to travel to London for medical treatment in the first week of January. However, the exact date of her departure has not yet been finalised.

Bangladesh Named the Best Country of the Year by The Economist

Bangladesh has been named the "Country of the Year" for 2024 by the influential British magazine, The Economist. A report on this announcement was published on December 19.

According to the report, the selection of the "Country of the Year" is not based on wealth, happiness, or moral superiority but rather on which country has made the most progress over the past 12 months. The report noted that there was intense debate among The Economist's correspondents during the selection process.

Bangladesh emerged as the "Country of the Year," while Syria was the runner-up. The final shortlist included five countries: Bangladesh, Syria, Poland, South Africa, and Argentina.