Attacks on Iran's oil facilities could trigger global economic shock

After flying nearly 2,000 kilometers, over a hundred Israeli planes launched attacks in three phases on various military sites in Iran's capital Tehran and two western provinces on October 26, 2024. This assault is a retaliation for an Iranian attack that occurred on October 1. In the first wave, Israel destroyed Syria, Iraq, and Iran's air defense systems. The subsequent two waves targeted different military installations in Iran without resistance. Israel specifically aimed at Iran's defense capabilities and drone and missile production facilities, refraining from attacking Iran's nuclear and economic sites due to US restrictions. Israel has named this operation "Day of Regret."

On October 1, Iran launched nearly 200 ballistic missiles targeting Israel; according to Israeli statements, almost all missiles, except for one or two, were destroyed in the air. Meanwhile, Iran claims that 90 per cent of their missiles successfully hit their targets. There is some truth to Iran's statement; otherwise, Israel would not have been adding the US's most advanced missile defense system, Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD), to its defenses. Israel's air defense system, Iron Dome, was considered impenetrable against enemy-fired missiles, rockets, or warplanes. In addition to Iron Dome, Israel has long been using the US Patriot missile system, but this was deemed insufficient, leading to the addition of THAAD.

Compared to Israel's defense system, Iran's air defense is weaker. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu noted that the October 26 attacks rendered Iran's existing air defense and missile production systems inoperative. Conversely, Iran claims that its air defense successfully repelled the Israeli aggression, but this assertion is not credible, as not a single Israeli aircraft was shot down by Iran. Realizing their vulnerability, Iran has likely taken steps to triple its military budget; however, even with this massive budget, it seems unlikely they can effectively counter Israel, as Israel often develops weapons that are more devastating than American-made ones. During the 1973 war, for example, Israel shocked both Russia and America by obliterating Russian T-72 tanks with their own missiles. According to Israel's Prime Minister, if Iran attacks again, Israel will employ devastating weapons that they have never used before.

Israel's own strength is bolstered by the support of America and Europe. France occasionally threatens to reduce arms supplies, but after counter-threats from Israel's Prime Minister, the French President remains silent. America and Europe not only supply weapons but also maintain a constant naval presence to protect Israel. These warships destroy missiles launched by Iran and keep the Houthis in Yemen in check. America has made it clear that no one will be allowed to defeat Israel. This is why Egypt's President Anwar Sadat, who was defeated in the 1973 war, lamented, "We can fight against Israel, but not against America." While America's power may change, its policy towards Israel remains unchanged.

A war of words has erupted between presidential candidates Donald Trump and Kamala Harris regarding who is more dedicated to Israel. Seeking Muslim votes, Democratic candidate Kamala Harris occasionally speaks of ceasefires, but this is seen as insincere; President Joe Biden has been echoing similar sentiments for the past year. On the other hand, Donald Trump is a staunch supporter of Israel, leaving no ambiguity in his statements regarding support for the country. Trump boasts that if he were president, Hamas would not even have the courage to attack Israel. This is why Israel hopes for Trump's victory. While Joe Biden publicly calls for a ceasefire, he also desires the destruction of Iran's armed groups across various countries in the Middle East.

It is not only America but also the Muslim-majority countries in the Middle East that seek to diminish Iran's influence in the region. This is evident as Jordan destroys missiles launched by Iran to protect Israel, and Egypt designates Hamas as a terrorist organization. In fact, the Camp David Accords of 1978 helped Egypt disengage from conflict with Israel. Israel's other neighbor, Syria, is devastated by internal civil war. Under Secretary of State Antony Blinken's strategic policies, other Muslim countries in the Middle East remain silent and indifferent. Their apathy suggests that they perceive no war in Gaza, the West Bank, or Lebanon, no children are dying, and there are no shortages in the treatment of the wounded.

For several years, a shadow war has been ongoing between Israel and Iran. Individuals in Iran deemed a threat to Israel are eliminated by Israel's intelligence agency, Mossad. Many scientists involved in Iran's nuclear program have been assassinated by Mossad, including Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh within Iran's borders. Israel has resorted not only to covert assassinations but also to open airstrikes to eliminate Iranian personnel. On April 1 of this year, seven Iranian officials were killed in an Israeli attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus. In retaliation, Iran launched 300 missiles and drones on April 13. During the swearing-in ceremony of Iran's newly elected President Masoud Pezeshkian, Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was killed in an Israeli attack on Iranian soil. Iran avenged this attack by launching 200 missiles on October 1. After a brief wait, Israel responded with a counterattack on the 26th.

Since the Islamic Revolution in 1979, Iran has not only supported the rights of Palestinians but has also committed to the destruction of Israel. However, following Israel's latest attack, Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's comments seem somewhat soft. He did not advocate for an immediate retaliatory response as before. Instead, President Masoud Pezeshkian spoke of conducting retaliatory attacks. Western countries have urged Iran not to take countermeasures against Israel's assault. Iran must remember that, according to US directives, Israel's recent attack was limited; they did not target Iran's oil or nuclear facilities. If there were attacks on oil reserves, oil fields, or supply pipelines, the world would face another economic crisis. Iran should carefully consider its response to Israel's assault, following the guidance of its Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, without treating it as mere 'neglect or exaggeration.'

Ziauddin Ahmed: Former Executive Director of Bangladesh Bank