Bashar al-Assad's fall in Syria: What’s happening there?

After nearly 14 years of civil war, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has been ousted for the first time. Syrian rebels have declared that the 'dictator' President Bashar al-Assad has fled the country, and Syria is now free. If, within the next few days, it is heard that Bashar al-Assad has been arrested or killed by the rebels after stepping down from power, it would not be surprising. However, it is more accurate to describe the war in Syria as an international conflict rather than a civil war.

This is because the protest movement that began in 2011, calling for democracy and the downfall of Bashar al-Assad, involved not only non-state actors but also became entangled with countries such as Turkey, Iran, Israel, Russia, the United States, the United Kingdom, NATO, and several neighboring countries of Syria that are part of the Gulf Cooperation Council.

Initially, the internal political movement transformed into an armed rebellion, leading to the formation of the Free Syrian Army. This was a result of the prolonged hold on power. Bashar al-Assad has been in power for 24 years since his father's death in 2000. His father, Hafez al-Assad, ruled Syria for 29 years, from 1971 until his death in 2000. Officially, the country is known as the Syrian Arab Republic. There were several failed attempts to overthrow his father as well.

The long movement to oust Bashar al-Assad has resulted in over 600,000 lives lost in Syria since 2011, with nearly 7 million people forced to flee the country.
The movement to overthrow the Syrian government was part of the Arab Spring. While countries like Libya, Egypt, and Tunisia saw the fall of long-standing rulers, this did not happen in Syria.

The reason for this was the exclusive support Syria received from Russia and Iran. The war in Syria is so complex, with so many stakeholders involved, that describing it is nearly impossible. After the war began, the Obama administration of the United States started providing direct financial aid and light arms to the Free Syrian Army and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), led by Kurdish guerrillas. Although Turkey opposed Bashar al-Assad, it was displeased with the US support for the SDF. Due to the assistance given to Kurdish guerrillas, a rift developed between the United States and Turkey, despite Turkey being a NATO member. It could be said that the rift expanded. However, all parties continued to provide assistance to various groups aimed at overthrowing Assad.

At one point, the United States not only banned ISIS or Daesh but also carried out airstrikes against them. On the other hand, the US and several Western countries, including Israel, have repeatedly carried out airstrikes in Syria. However, the motives behind Israel's and the US's attacks were different. According to Israel, whether Bashar al-Assad remains in power or not, the threat to Israel must be eliminated. Israel is often seen targeting Iranian interests in Syria, particularly in areas related to Iran.

In contrast, the primary objective of the US was to overthrow Bashar al-Assad. Meanwhile, Russia, in an attempt to stabilize the situation and protect Bashar al-Assad, sent warships to the Mediterranean. This provided some balance in Assad's favor. The United States, seeking to avoid large-scale conflict, ceased its exclusive airstrikes in Syria. Amidst these complexities, at least five zones of control were established in Syrian territory. Although cities like Aleppo, Homs, and Hama remained under government control, Syria was effectively divided among the "Syrian National Army," "Syrian Democratic Forces," "ISIS" (Syrian ISIS), and the armed group "Hayat Tahrir al-Sham" (HTS).

This Hayat Tahrir al-Sham group is now advancing towards the capital, Damascus. The group has become more powerful after joining forces with several others, including Jaysh al-Sunna and the Nur al-Din Zenki Movement. Although there is widespread belief that Hayat Tahrir al-Sham has roots in al-Qaeda, its leader, Jolani, has denied this connection.

In 2018, during President Trump's first term, the United States declared Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) a terrorist organization and offered a $10 million bounty for its leader, Abu Mohammad al-Jolani. Six years later, towards the end of the Democratic administration, Jolani, who was the subject of the bounty, gave an interview to CNN, a staunch supporter of the Democratic Party. This shift in circumstances raises the question: how did the situation change?

Until recently, major cities like Aleppo were effectively guarded by the Iran-backed Hezbollah group. As Hezbollah was supported by Iran, it remained aligned with Bashar al-Assad’s government. However, when Israel launched a full-scale offensive in Lebanon, most Hezbollah fighters left for Lebanon to battle Israel, weakening their position in Syria. Israel did not only focus on Lebanon; it also launched repeated attacks on Hezbollah positions in Syria. As a result, Hezbollah fighters lost their capability to continue fighting in Syria. Taking advantage of this situation, HTS started advancing against Assad’s government.

Meanwhile, Russia, heavily preoccupied with the Ukraine war, has been unable to focus fully on Syria. Although Russia has carried out several airstrikes against HTS, they have had little effect. Additionally, Russia’s Additionally, Russia's Wagner Group in Syria has also weakened in numbers. On the other hand, Bashar al-Assad's closest ally, the Shia-majority country Iran, has become so deeply involved in Lebanon and Gaza that it has been difficult for them to provide protection for Assad. As a result, Syria had to rely entirely on its own military to defend Damascus, but in the end, Bashar's fall became inevitable.

It should be noted that 74 per cent of the population in Syria belongs to the Sunni branch of Islam, while 13 per cent follow the Shia Alawite sect. Bashar al-Assad himself is a member of this sect. Even though Bashar al-Assad has been ousted, will this solve Syria's problems, or will the country be permanently fragmented? In the past, cities like Aleppo and Damascus in Syria had a remarkable unity in terms of religious and ideological diversity. Now, the main goal of many armed groups was to oust Bashar al-Assad, and the outcome has been achieved.

These groups have now taken control of Syria, and are providing food and aid to the hungry people. They are saying, "Together we return." But now that Bashar has been overthrown, will this "together" remain? It can be safely said that it will not. Since 2016, the United States has occupied a military area in the southeastern part of Syria, known as Al-Tanaf, to maintain its military presence in Iraq and Syria.

The groups currently fighting against Bashar al-Assad will soon divide, as they include both extremists and moderate forces. The Kurds will likely seek to establish an independent region, which is strongly opposed by Turkey. Due to such complex equations, it is clear that even after the fall of Bashar al-Assad, Syria's conflict will not end anytime soon.

Mohsin Habib: Writer, Journalist, and International Analyst.