Bashar al-Assad’s Fall: The message to Russia and Iran

The Assad family's rule in Syria began in the early 1970s. It now seems that President Assad has left Damascus, signaling what appears to be the final moment of 54 years of autocratic rule in Syria. This outcome is largely due to the weakening of Assad's two close allies, Russia and Iran, who have lost focus and strength due to other events. Notably, Russia has been engaged in a war with Ukraine for several years, while Iran-supported groups Hamas and Hezbollah are devastated by Israeli attacks. There have even been direct missile strikes between Iran and Israel. Furthermore, ninety percent of Syria's population now lives below the poverty line, with many residing in camps for displaced persons. The truth is, the people have become exhausted.

Since 2018, the country has effectively been divided into three parts, with Bashar al-Assad's authoritarian rule, Kurdish forces, and Islamist rebels controlling different regions. For a long time, analysts believed it would be difficult to end the war in Syria. The years of conflict have devastated the country, crippling its economy, destroying infrastructure, and plunging millions of people into extreme hardship. This has created a humanitarian crisis with no clear path to recovery. According to the United Nations, more than half of Syria's pre-war population of 22 million has been displaced. Of the 6.8 million internally displaced people, more than 2 million live in overcrowded refugee camps with limited resources. Additionally, nearly 6 million people have fled the country, most seeking refuge in Lebanon, Jordan, and Turkey. However, on November 27 this year, just hours after a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon took effect, the Syrian opposition coalition Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) launched its largest military offensive.

In the past few days, they have taken control of Syria's second-largest city, Aleppo, and the entire Idlib province, moving closer to the city of Hama. This unexpected offensive by the opposition has reignited a long-standing ceasefire conflict, shattering the notion that Syria’s ruler Bashar al-Assad is invincible. The opposition seized nearly 250 villages and towns, captured the largest city, Homs, within 24 hours, and advanced beyond the previously stable front lines to enter Damascus. After a 54-year empire built by father and son, President Assad embarked on his disappearance. Prior to this, Iran and Russia jointly called both sides to peace talks in Doha, Qatar; however, the opposition side ignored the call and virtually took control of the capital without resistance. These events were hardly surprising.

Assad has never truly been victorious in Syria's civil war. His rule had been weakening for a long time, and in recent years, his position has become even more unstable and precarious. For many years, the general perception about Syria was that the crisis was stabilizing, the tension of war was a thing of the past, and Assad was an inevitable victor. As a result, international attention waned, diplomatic initiatives regarding Syria almost ceased, and various governments gradually redirected resources away from Syria towards other global challenges. As the situation in Syria worsened, Arab countries moved to restore relations with Assad in 2023, effectively normalizing his position within the Middle East. This shift towards regional engagement with Syria was seen by US policymakers as a hopeful sign.

Furthermore, in opposition to the European Union's anti-Assad policies, Italy led a coalition of 10 European countries that sought to recognize Assad's rule again and initiate diplomatic re-engagement with Syria, as well as discussions on refugee return. These advances created the perception that, although the situation in Syria was dire, the crisis was stable, controlled, and that Assad was strengthening his rule. However, this idea turned out to be false. Syria's economy has been in ruins for years. At the beginning of 2020, following a ceasefire between Turkey and Russia, the exchange rate was around 1,150 Syrian pounds against the dollar. When the opposition offensive began earlier this month, the rate reached 14,750 Syrian pounds to the dollar. After a week of fighting on December 4, it rose further to 17,500 pounds. The ceasefire had been meant to stabilize the situation in Syria and provide some respite to civilians after years of conflict, but following this agreement, Syria's humanitarian crisis deepened.

The United Nations reports that at least 90 per cent of Syria’s population now lives below the poverty line. Despite the government has been making a profit of $2.4 billion annually, the benefits are not reaching the common people. In reality, government subsidies on fuel and food have steadily decreased. Due to the economic crisis, the government struggles to pay its various military forces and civil administration regularly. In fact, there was no one left to rescue Assad from the state bankruptcy. Russia and Iran, long-time supporters of Assad, are themselves facing economic weakness. Russia’s economy has been severely impacted by the war in Ukraine, and Iran is also grappling with financial crises. Had Assad moved sooner to restore relations with Arab countries or strengthened ties with Turkey, Syria’s position today could have been different.

As Syria’s humanitarian crisis has reached its peak, and the world’s interest and ability to assist have diminished, the Syrian public has realized that there is no end to this crisis and they must take initiative themselves. Recently, they took to the streets once again, demanding Assad's fall. One of the key reasons for Syria’s economic collapse has been organized crime. At the industrial level, drug production and trafficking became a core part of the Syrian government's security apparatus. In fact, Assad’s Syria was turning into one of the largest narcotic states in the world. The opposition group HTS had been informed about the possibility of an attack since mid-October. Turkey tried to stop them, and Russia also carried out counter-airstrikes; however, Assad's forces began to move towards Iraq, with thousands of fighters crossing the border and seeking refuge there.

Despite Russia’s eight years of effort, Assad’s military effectively lost its ability to fight. The special forces established by Russia, such as the 25th Special Task Division, were unable to break the stagnation within the Syrian army. Widespread rebellion continued to brew among the forces. In fact, a disorganized militia network proved to be more militarily capable than the army itself. Notably, HTS (Hayat Tahrir al-Sham) formed new types of units that brought significant changes to the battlefield in recent conflicts. In 2015, Assad had once again faced a serious challenge, with his regime on the brink of collapse. At that time, Russia intervened militarily to regain control of the situation. However, in 2023, following the rebellion led by Russian mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin and his subsequent death, Russia was forced to withdraw the Wagner Group’s forces from Syria.

In the same year, Moscow also withdrew some of its air force units from Syria. The number of Russian aircraft stationed at the Hmeimim base in Latakia was significantly reduced compared to pre-Ukraine war levels. Hezbollah also reduced its presence in Syria, as the Israel-Lebanon conflict had severely weakened the group, and many of its senior leaders were killed. As a result, a large part of their forces in Aleppo and Idlib had to be withdrawn to Lebanon. Iran, too, reduced its military presence in Syria, as Israel frequently targeted their positions. Consequently, there were no longer any forces left to come to Assad’s rescue. The biggest concern at that point was whether the rebels, after ousting Assad, would take extreme revenge, potentially leading to another genocide.

HTS (Hayat Tahrir al-Sham) has announced that government institutions will be under the supervision of former Prime Minister Mohammad Ghazi al-Jalali until they are officially transferred. For now, the reassuring aspect is that the rebels have shown remarkable prudence in this matter. The opposition group has stated that they will not seek revenge. The question now is who will take leadership of Syria, which remains unclear. However, in a statement, Jolani mentioned, "We are turning the page of a dark past and opening a new horizon for a new future. A free Syria seeks to deepen relationships with all brotherly and allied countries based on mutual respect and interests. We aim to play a constructive role in achieving security and stability in the region and the world." This shift in Syria could potentially reshape not only Syria’s future but also the entire political and strategic map of the Middle East. Many countries in the region still operate under different forms of autocratic rule, and this rebellion could bring about a true Arab Spring across the region.

Rayhan Ahmed Tapader: Researcher and Columnist.