Can Trudeau weather the storm ahead?

Justin Trudeau, the current Prime Minister of Canada, has had a promising political career. Since taking office, he has encountered numerous challenges and controversies. Despite this, Trudeau has successfully maintained a strong position in Canadian politics in recent years. His political ascent began in 2015, when his Liberal Party secured a majority government, ending nearly a decade of Conservative rule. Trudeau's charismatic personality, progressive policies, and commitment to change have resonated with many Canadians, particularly among the younger generation. His leadership, grounded in principles of unity, diversity, and social justice, has helped him build a robust support base.

Trudeau has led the Liberal Party of Canada since 2013 and became Prime Minister in 2015. Having served for nine consecutive years, he has been in office longer in a row. According to the party's constitution, the leader may resign any time. Should he choose to step down, the party members will select an interim leader, and then either through a vote or consensus, a permanent leader will be chosen. Until a new leader is appointed, the interim leader will assume the responsibilities of the position. Once a new leader is elected, Trudeau will be required to transfer his authority to the successor.

Following Chrystia Freeland's resignation, Justin Trudeau convened an emergency meeting with his caucus. Media reports suggest that he informed junior members of his party in Parliament that he would need more time before making any decisions. Some of these members have openly called for his resignation. Two weeks ago, Jagmeet Singh, leader of the New Democratic Party, was the first to publicly demand that Trudeau step down. This has heightened the instability of the Liberal government, as the party's parliamentary leader has warned that if Trudeau attempts to remain as Prime Minister in the new year, the party’s MPs would vote in favor of a no-confidence motion. Trudeau has faced growing political pressure since last summer, with his popularity steadily declining among voters. A string of defeats in ridings once held by the Liberal Party has posed a serious challenge to his leadership. Consequently, it is clear that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s political future is now in grave uncertainty.

The resignation of Trudeau’s most senior cabinet member and former close ally has exacerbated the situation. Chrystia Freeland, Canada’s Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister, resigned last week through an open letter to the Prime Minister. She cited differences over government spending and outlined her vision for Canada’s best path forward. The conflict between Trudeau and the recently resigned Deputy Prime Minister largely stemmed from the decision of the newly elected US President Donald Trump to impose tariffs on Canadian products.

Analysts suggest that Trump’s imposition of tariffs could severely damage Canada’s economy. Within Canada’s parliamentary politics, even within Justin Trudeau's own Liberal Party, questions are being raised. In such a critical time, doubts about Trudeau’s leadership have surfaced. This has created a major crisis for Trudeau regarding his political future. In October, he faced a minor rebellion within his own party, with 24 Liberal MPs signing a letter calling for his resignation. Amidst this, various opinion polls have further complicated Trudeau's position.

Polls indicate that if a general election were held in Canada right now, the opposition Conservative Party would win a decisive victory. Despite all these challenges, Trudeau remains resolute. He is determined to contest the next general election as the leader of the Liberal Party. There are currently 153 Liberal MPs in Canada’s Parliament. Of these, only 13 have openly called for his resignation, and nearly half of them are not seeking re-election. CBC News has reported this information. According to the Liberal Party’s constitution, members can formally vote on the party leader’s position in one specific case: if the party suffers defeat in a general election. During the period of declining popularity, opposition Conservatives have made several attempts to hold a vote of no confidence against the government in the House of Commons. However, these attempts have failed due to a lack of sufficient support. If the government loses a no-confidence vote, the Prime Minister would be required to resign.

In this context, the government may choose to dissolve Parliament, thereby clearing the way for a general election. Canada’s Parliament consists of 338 seats, and to pass a no-confidence vote, the government must secure the support of a majority of MPs. Currently, the opposition is 17 seats behind Trudeau's governing coalition. Therefore, without backing from the New Democratic Party or Bloc Québécois, it would be virtually impossible for the Conservatives to successfully oust the government in a no-confidence vote.

Parliament is currently in recess, which reduces the immediate risk of a no-confidence vote until the end of January. To avoid such a vote, Trudeau has a feasible alternative—suspending Parliament. This would not involve a formal dissolution, but it would halt all parliamentary activities, debates, and votes temporarily. This is a standard procedural step in parliamentary practice.

In many political crises, governments use this strategy to buy additional time. The last time Trudeau suspended Parliament was in August 2020, when his government faced a scandal involving a contract with a charitable organization. Given the current circumstances, whatever course of action Trudeau takes, it appears increasingly likely that a general election will be necessary in Canada in the coming months.

Canada must hold its next general election by October, or potentially even sooner. When that time comes, voters will have the opportunity to decide Trudeau’s political fate. Despite mounting challenges, Trudeau continues to press forward, strengthening both his own and Canada’s international reputation. Unlike other political parties, he has successfully communicated who he is and what his country stands for, a narrative that can be compared to those of other global leaders. His government has delivered on several key promises, including recognizing Gaza, enacting laws that prohibit gender discrimination through Canada’s human rights framework, and placing a strong emphasis on gender equality.

On the economic front, Canada has remained engaged in negotiations with the United States and Mexico over the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), even as the US has pursued more conservative policies on its domestic market.

While unemployment in Canada is at its lowest level in history, the key question remains: can Trudeau secure the support of center-left and left-wing progressive voters for both himself and the Liberal Party, as he did four years ago?

Rayhan Ahmed Tapader: Researcher and Columnist.