Complicated calculation of the conducted election

The Election Commission (EC) completed the 12th national election within 48-hour hartal sponsored by BNP and like-minded parties. Voting took place from 9:00am to 4:00pm on January 7. Although until 3:00pm, an average of 27% voter turnout was reported, the Election Commission later announced that approximately 40% of the votes had been cast by 4:00pm.

The Election Commission has mentioned that the election was satisfactory. The Election Commission had hoped for a 50% voter turnout. Politically, the Awami League had anticipated a 50% to 60% voter turnout to consider the election successful. Even though it fell slightly short, both the Election Commission and the Awami League view it as reasonably satisfactory. At least there was no embarrassing voter turnout. Notably, both the BNP and like-minded parties had urged the public to boycott the election. They distributed 12 crore leaflets nationwide, accusing the Awami League of corruption and misrule. The distribution and promotion of these 12 crore leaflets were informed to an international news agency by the office secretary, Taiful Islam Tipu. This effort did not seem to be able to convince ordinary voters other than the most familiar and active supporters. As a major party, BNP is estimated to have approximately 25% direct activist support throughout the country.

Awami League also has 25 to 30 percent active activist-supporters. The remaining 40 to 50 percent people are floating voters and supporters of some minor parties. These voters tend to support or vote for the party or candidate they feel positively about. This 50 percent of voters is crucial, and their preferences often determine the intense rivalry between the two major parties in Bangladesh. Generally, when there is a good and fair election, 70 to 80 percent voter turnout is observed in Bangladesh. Therefore, looking at these figures, it can be said that the Awami League has been successful in bringing about approximately 40 percent voter turnout in the polling centers. However, it is essential to note that the candidates played a significant role in ensuring the presence of these voters. The goal of Awami League was to ensure voter presence in the centers, regardless of the absence of the main opposition party, BNP, and conducting the election cleanly would contribute to international credibility because if you notice, the United States has mentioned participatory elections twice, but has mainly emphasized on fair and impartial elections. The US has never directly said that the election will not be acceptable if the BNP does not come to the polls.

Notably, this election was in no way similar to those of 2014 or 2018. There was intense competition, with candidates extensively touring door-to-door to garner votes. The international community has also closely observed this election, and it is noteworthy that international media has been divided into two camps regarding Bangladesh's elections. We know that 80 percent of the world's media is controlled by Western statecraft. Except for newly formed blocs in India, Southeast Asia, and Russia, most international media has attempted to speak favorably of the BNP's voice. Election observers from the international community have noted a particular aspect. Observers from the United States, Scotland, China, Uzbekistan, OIC, Russia, Palestine, and Gambia have refrained from expressing dissatisfaction with the election. This, too, is a kind of victory for the Awami League. Observers have placed more importance on how many voters turned out, the accuracy of the votes, and whether there is any manipulation, rather than expressing dissatisfaction.

Declaring the election completely violence-free is not accurate. It's a country of 18 crore people. National elections have never been entirely free of violence. However, compared to previous instances, the election on January 7th was relatively peaceful. The administration and the Election Commission made efforts to conduct a peaceful and impartial election. No major irregularities were observed in the election process. Across the country, irregularities were reported in 140 centers, and 42 individuals were arrested. This step by the Election Commission was mostly against powerful Awami League candidates. Even the candidacy of a candidate with a boat symbol was canceled by the commission. The presence of the military as a striking force throughout the country may have prevented the intensification of violence.

However, the aftermath reveals a different story. The path Awami League has taken to ensure voter turnout in elections may prove to be detrimental to the party's long-term political interests. Throughout the country, dissent has arisen within Awami League, with leaders or workers opposing the party-endorsed independent candidates. This internal conflict is reminiscent of local elections. This has led to a fracture in the unity within the party. Across the country, instances have been observed where supporters of boat symbol candidates and supporters of independent candidates endorsed by Awami League clashed, especially in some local elections. This division raises questions about how Awami League will navigate a path of reconciliation in the future, depending on the party's ideology and strategic skills.

The role of the Jatiya Party in the election has made it more complex. Being a rival party, the presence of the National Party was expected. For a long time, the leader of the Jatiyal Party, G.M. Quader, had been criticizing the government. However, at the last moment, who knows what fear they experienced as they reached an understanding with the powerless Awami League on the matter of the actual 26 seats. This has damaged the image of the Jatiya Party. The National Party had the opportunity to be a complete opposition party, criticizing the government openly in front of BNP voters. That could have resulted in victories in many seats, according to our perception. But they did not take that risk. The National Party did not want to keep the seat where the late leader of the Jatiya Party, Hussain Muhammad Ershad, achieved a significant victory by a huge vote. After his demise, they failed to hold onto that seat in this election, proving the point.

The formation of the government after the election may happen swiftly. In this regard, a new era of brightness could emerge. Perhaps, we will see many independent candidates taking the oath as cabinet members. To witness that, we have to wait for just a few more days. We also need to wait to see the next steps of the BNP and other opposition parties, the reaction of the United States, and how other countries perceive this election.

Author: Litterateur and Journalist