Concern about renewed tension spreading in the Middle East

The nuclear tensions with Iran, which have persisted for decades, along with attacks on enemies and negotiations with the West regarding lifting sanctions, have often given new presidents plenty of time. However, the new president, Masoud Pezeshkian, had only 10 hours. Within hours of his swearing-in as president, Hamas leader Haniya was killed in an attack on a powerful Revolutionary Guard guesthouse in the capital city of Tehran. The leader of Hamas's political branch, Haniya, was warmly received by Iran's President Pezeshkian and the country's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. They have condemned the attack as a disgraceful act by Israel.

Amidst the ongoing Israeli attacks on Gaza, Iran and its proxies—Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis—have announced retaliation for multiple Israeli strikes within Lebanon and Iran. This has heightened fears of increased conflict in the Middle East. On his first day in office, President Pezeshkian had no alternative but to engage in attacks on Israel, given the circumstances. Consequently, he spent his first day in discussions with national security officials to finalize the decision. In response to the killing of Haniya, Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has ordered a direct attack on Israel. Following Haniya's death, Khamenei conveyed a message of vengeance in a social media post, stating that it is our duty to seek retribution after such a bitter and distressing incident occurring within Iran's borders. Earlier this April, Iran had carried out an attack on Israel.

During that time, 99% of Iran's 300 drones and missiles were successfully intercepted and destroyed in the air by a coalition of the United States, Israel, Jordan, and the United Kingdom. How Iran chooses to seek retribution this time could make a significant difference in the conflict. If Iran opts for direct attacks as it did before, the tensions are likely to escalate further. If Hezbollah, the armed group closely aligned with Iran in Lebanon, attacks northern Israel or if the Houthis in Syria escalate their attacks in the Red Sea, the conflict could further spread in Lebanon and Syria. For over nine months, there has been ongoing intermittent cross-border conflict between Hezbollah and Israel. During this period, Hezbollah has used various types of weapons to carry out attacks on Israel.

Hezbollah, one of the world's most well-armed non-state groups, is said to have the largest stockpile of weapons among such groups. In this context, the U.S. Navy may need to intervene to maintain shipping routes in the Red Sea. Another risky option available to Iran is to restart its nuclear weapons development program, a path it has pursued for decades. Iran has been advancing its nuclear capabilities by producing nuclear fuel and recently enhancing its uranium enrichment for potential bomb-making. U.S. intelligence officials believe that Iran is still behind in its nuclear weapons development. However, Iranian leaders have recently publicly discussed considering this path. In response to Haniya's killing, Hamas has announced plans for retaliation. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Nasser Kanaani stated that Haniya's blood will not be in vain. As a result, there are growing concerns about renewed tensions spreading in the Middle East amidst the ongoing conflict in Gaza.

Before Haniya's killing, Israel claimed responsibility for an attack in the Lebanese capital, Beirut, that killed a Hezbollah leader. The assassination of two key leaders from Iran-backed armed groups within less than 24 hours has understandably raised concerns among experts about a new escalation of tensions in the Middle East. Iran is intent on retaliating against Israel, as the killing of the Hamas leader has cast doubt on the effectiveness of Iran's security apparatus. Meanwhile, the United Nations is expressing concerns about a large-scale war spreading across the Middle East in the wake of the death of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh. An emergency meeting was convened by the Security Council to address the situation, where tensions also flared. Kelly Petillo, a Middle East researcher at the European Council on Foreign Relations, stated that the impact of these two assassinations will be felt across the entire region.

In an interview with the Germany-based news outlet Deutsche Welle, Kelly Petillo stated that while it is difficult to predict the exact impact, it is important to be prepared for the worst-case scenario. He noted that, following Haniyeh's death, Israel has effectively eliminated Hamas's political leadership, who were considered moderate. Haniyeh played a crucial role in the ceasefire negotiations being pursued by Qatar, Egypt, and the United States. Petillo believes that this development will likely bolster support for the military wing of Hamas among Palestinians. They can also argue that Haniyeh was pursuing a path of negotiations, and his current fate is evident. China was also attempting to mediate in the ceasefire talks, arranging discussions among 14 Palestinian groups. They were working towards reaching an agreement on who would govern Gaza after the conflict. Haniyeh's death could potentially affect these efforts as well.

Additionally, this could impact the release of individuals held hostage by Hamas. Professor Simon Wolfgang of Hebrew University in Jerusalem told DW that it is currently difficult to predict the exact consequences of Haniyeh's death. However, he noted that discussions on prisoner releases were in the final stages, and it appears that this assassination is likely to affect those negotiations. Not only is the conflict between Hezbollah and Israel likely to escalate, but Hezbollah might also become more actively involved in the fighting with renewed vigor. Simon Wolfgang stated, "For many years, Iran has supported both Hezbollah and Hamas. Haniyeh's death is a significant blow to Iran in Tehran."

Most importantly, this incident occurred during the new president's swearing-in ceremony. It also demonstrated that Iran could not even provide security for its own guests. Petillo noted that the killing took place on Iranian soil, so Iran will likely seek to retaliate. All eyes will now be on them. Israel and Iran have had a long-standing intense rivalry. Due to Tehran's controversial nuclear program, ballistic missiles, and support for armed groups that vow to destroy Israel, Israel has long viewed Iran as its greatest threat. On the other hand, Iran views itself as the chief patron of Palestinian resistance against Israeli rule, and its top leaders have long called for the removal of Israel from the map. Iran's ambassador, Amir Saeed Iravani, stated at an emergency Security Council meeting that "the Security Council should take immediate action to hold Israel accountable for this aggression." This request was made by his government following the killing of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran early in the morning.

This includes considering the imposition of sanctions and other measures to prevent further violations, as well as signaling to the international community that Israel's malicious activities will not be tolerated. Both Iran and Hamas are holding Israel responsible for the death of the Hamas leader who was attending President Masoud Pezeshkian's inauguration ceremony. Although Israel has not officially claimed responsibility for the attack, there is a strong suspicion that they carried it out. The United States designated Hamas as a terrorist organization in 1997, and Israel, Egypt, the European Union, and Japan also consider Hamas to be a terrorist group. Lebanon's Charge d'Affaires stated that Israel appears to be aiming to drag the region into a larger conflict with devastating consequences.

U.S. envoy Robert Wood stated that Washington was not involved in Israel's attack on the Hezbollah leader and had no prior knowledge or involvement in targeting Hamas officials. He said, "We have no independent verification of Hamas's claims regarding his death." He added that this attack has heightened regional tensions, which could potentially escalate further across Middle Eastern countries due to the ongoing conflict in Gaza. Analysts believe that Iran has only shown a glimpse of what it is capable of. This is a scene unlike anything seen before. Following such an attack, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is on high alert for potential retaliation and has also issued a warning to Israel.

Rayhan Ahmed Tapader: Researcher and Columnist