Data Accuracy in Bangladesh: Challenges and Perspectives

The phrase "Garbage in, garbage out," coined by IBM programmer George Fuechsel, reflects the two most important challenges associated with data analysis and policymaking. Poor or unreliable data leads to misleading conclusions and poorly informed policies that may have great repercussions. Whereas many other developed countries have managed to develop solid systems that showcase exact data, Bangladesh has often lagged in this regard and has thus continued to provide inconsistent data ever since the beginning of collecting data. The incongruity affects a great deal of decision-making at the national level, from economic planning to health management to educational policies.

The Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) was formed in 1974 and emerged as the national statistical agency responsible to carry out the task of producing international standard statistics. Recent controversies over inconsistencies, particularly in the export figures, have raised questions about whether the BBS is really able to deliver quality statistics. These discrepancies erode confidence in the precision of its estimates- a confidence that is imperative for informed decision-making and the crafting of sound policies. Sound policy decisions depend on dependable data. If the base is faulty, then the resulting policy could be misleading or worse, hurtful. Yet, even after the government promulgated the National Strategy for Development of Statistics (NSDS) in 2013-aimed at ensuring better timeliness, quality, and accuracy of statistics. However, longstanding systemic weaknesses continue to thwart the BBS, including an appalling and pervasive lack of awareness on the part of policymakers about the imperative for accuracy. In addition, there is a strong resistance to adopting modern, scientific approaches to data collection, as outdated methodologies remain deeply entrenched in the system. These impediments prevent the BBS from full adherence to international norms, resulting in further degrading of the quality and reliability of the data it produces.

In addition, official statistics are scrutinized during the Awami League tenure for alleged manipulation, especially after AHM Mustafa Kamal took over as Planning Minister in 2014. Critics say Kamal has inflated basic economic indicators, such as the GDP growth and inflation rates, to portray an overly optimistic view of the progress of the nation. In this regard, growth figures were said to have been inflated by asmuch as 3.5% between 2015 and 2019. This manipulation has resulted in an everwidening gap between the BBS data and figures given by international organizations such as the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank. It reflects the decline in data reliability, as the Statistical Capacity Indicator for Bangladesh fell from 80 in 2014 to 60 in 2020. Kamal was further accused of removing key personnel at BBS and tinkering with data to suit the government's agenda. This distortion of data has resulted in misguided policies that hinder Bangladesh's economic planning and development initiatives.

Accurate national statistics are crucial for effective governance and policymaking. To improve the reliability of data, it is essential to implement key reforms in tandem with the NSDS. What follows is a roadmap to realize this goal:

1.Establish a National Statistics Reform Commission
Establish a commission that comprises representation from each government ministry, banks, universities, and independent experts. This commission will facilitate collaboration between data users and producers to ensure high standards of accuracy and integrity of data.

2. Sector-Specific Data Needs Assessment
Each sector has different needs-for instance, health, finance, and education. A proper analysis of data gaps in each individual sector is important to make the reforms evidence-based and complete in every aspect.

3. Periodic NSDS Updates
The NSDS must undergo regular updates to align with the evolving demands of data. This strategy should prioritize the modernization of data collection methods, enhance timelines, and integrate real-time data for more responsive policymaking.

4.Centralized National Database Establishment
A single, unified national database should consolidate all data from various agencies. Leveraging machine learning to identify anomalies will enhance data consistency and accuracy, aiding in better decision-making.

5. Improve the Capacity of Data Agencies
Quality training to the national and regional statistical agencies is a prerequisite for getting quality data. Access to digital tools and automated systems would mean equipping the agencies for more frequent and accurate data collection.

6. Data Harmonization across Sectors
Standardizing definitions, classifications, and methodologies across sectors will guarantee the consistency of data. This harmonization will enable comparisons across various sectors, ultimately resulting in more informed and cohesive policy decisions.

7. Engage Private Sector and Civil Society
Involving non-governmental organizations in data production and validation will enrich the national data landscape. Partnerships with the private sector and civil society can broaden data coverage and help identify potential gaps.

Addressing the deep-seated issues in Bangladesh's statistical system is vital to ensure that its development policies are based on accurate and reliable data. The phenomenon known as "garbage in, garbage out" has long diminished the effectiveness of policies, resulting in wasted resources, misguided decisions, and lost opportunities for growth. By establishing a National Statistics Reform Commission, modernizing its data collection methods, and fostering collaboration across various sectors, Bangladesh stands to greatly enhance the quality and credibility of its data. This will be achieved by strengthening the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics and aligning it with international standards, restoring faith in national statistics and providing a sound basis for effective policy formulation. Accurately obtained data constitute the foundation for good governance; without these, sustainable development will just be an ideal. With comprehensive reform and collaboration, Bangladesh can transcend its statistical insufficiencies and begin its journey with better insight into where it stands, hence progress.

Obedur Rashid Bin Sakrat Kaderi: Banker & Data Science Enthusiast