Dhaka at high risk of devastating earthquake

Due to both geographical and human factors, Dhaka is at extreme risk of earthquakes. Various studies and surveys, both domestic and international, have identified Dhaka as a hazardous zone for seismic activity. Experts warn that a major earthquake in this densely populated city could lead to significant casualties and destruction.

A 2023 survey by the United Nations' Risk Assessment Tools for Diagnosis of Urban Areas Against Seismic Disaster listed Dhaka among the world's top 20 most geologically vulnerable cities. Similarly, a 2022 study conducted by the Department of Geology at Dhaka University, with support from Japan's Tokyo Institute of Technology (TIT), also categorized Dhaka as a high-risk city for earthquakes.

According to Md. Ali Akbar, Director of Geology at the Bangladesh Geological Survey Department, "There is no fault line near Dhaka capable of triggering an earthquake of magnitude 8 or 9. However, a fault line near the Modhupur region, just 60 kilometers from Dhaka, could generate an earthquake with a magnitude of 7 to 7.5. Such an earthquake could cause extensive damage and loss of life in the capital."

He further explained, "If a magnitude 7 to 7.5 earthquake occurs at night, over 200,000 people could be killed or injured in Dhaka. During the day, the number could be around 150,000. Tens of thousands of buildings would be damaged, and several thousand could collapse entirely."

Professor Mehedi Ahmed Ansari from the Civil Engineering Department of BUET (Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology) added, "The soil in and around Dhaka is soft and red, and many residential areas in the capital have been developed by filling in water bodies. Soft, reclaimed soil amplifies seismic waves. Furthermore, most buildings in Dhaka are not designed to withstand moderate or strong earthquakes. This is why an earthquake of magnitude 7 or higher could cause significant damage and loss of life in this city."

Earthquake Magnitude Scale

On the Richter scale: 1 to 4.99: Minor, 5 to 5.99: Moderate, 6 to 6.99: Strong, 7 to 7.99: Severe and 8 and above: Extremely Severe.

BUET researchers have divided Bangladesh into three seismic zones based on an earthquake risk map:

Zone 1: High-risk zone covering 43% of the country, including Jamalpur, Sherpur, Kishoreganj, Kurigram, Panchagarh, Rangpur, Gaibandha, Mymensingh, Netrokona, Sunamganj, Moulvibazar, Sylhet, Habiganj, Thakurgaon, Sirajganj, Tangail, Rangamati, Khagrachhari, Brahmanbaria, and parts of Cox's Bazar.

Zone 2: Moderate-risk zone covering 41% of the country, including Dhaka, Tangail, Manikganj, Rajshahi, Cumilla, Feni, Natore, Meherpur, and Magura.

Zone 3: Low-risk zone covering 16% of the country, mainly in the southern regions such as Barishal Division, Khulna, Satkhira, Bagerhat, and nearby islands and char areas.

A 2024 study by the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory at Columbia University in the United States revealed that tectonic plates beneath Bangladesh have been under pressure for approximately 400 years. The release of this accumulated pressure could result in an earthquake with a magnitude of 8 or more on the Richter scale. Such an event would cause widespread devastation across most parts of Bangladesh, with casualties surpassing all previous records.