Dhaka’s Diplomacy Demands Deeper Dexterity

Elections are over. Results are as anticipated. PM Hasina will lead Bangladesh for the fourth consecutive term. All concerns about how the elections will be are somewhat irrelevant now. The international community has begun responding to the elections of Bangladesh. On the morning of January 8, envoys of Russia, India, Pakistan, China, Nepal, Bhutan, Brazil, Srilanka, Philippines, Singapore, Morocco, and even the diplomatic representative of Aga Khan Development Network paid a courtesy call on PM Hasina and congratulated her on her fourth term as PM of Bangladesh. Fifty countries have permanent envoys in Bangladesh and 11 of them have congratulate PM Hasina on her victory. The courtesy call is highly indicative of how the election or rather the election results are being received at least in the immediate region. More importantly, China, Russia, and India congratulating Bangladesh is quite significant. At the same time, the US and UK have also acknowledged the elections underscoring various but anticipated concerns.

It is widely perceived that India’s support is key for political stability of any regime of Bangladesh. This could stem from India's direct intervention in the 2014 election, which is well-documented. Indian political endorsement has become so important that even opposition parties, whose political foundation is rooted in anti-Indianism, had to reach out to India in an attempt to gain favour ahead of the 2018 election, but ultimately yielding no success. India's growing influence has fostered stronger bilateral ties with the AL-led Bangladesh government. The AL government has addressed India's security concerns, particularly access to northeastern India, through connectivity projects and action against anti-India insurgent groups. In return, India has steadfastly supported the AL government, to the point of overlooking democratic setbacks in Bangladesh, according to many experts of both India and Bangladesh, and even Indian media analyses. For the 2024 polls, a significant portion of the Indian media and think tanks advocated support for the current regime. Although the advocacy was not as apparent as before making some experts believe that India has adopted a different stance towards the 2024 elections. They seem to have the notion that this time, India wants the AL back in power but a weaker AL, with preferably a less controversial election, and not have to interfere in Bangladesh elections, and politics as bluntly as before. Irrespective of what kind of AL India wants to lead Bangladesh, PM Hasina continues to be the pivot of growing, and enhancing India-Bangladesh relations.

For India, another the key priority in Bangladesh for the time being is ensuring that Bangladesh has stability. They are struggling with how one can ascertain stability in Bangladesh while the AL regime ensures adherence to democratic values, and compliance to human rights. This is mainly stemming from the West’s ergo the US pressures for ensuring the democratic values, and human rights standards.

India’s additional challenge is that Myanmar is already unstable. Delhi can’t afford to have two neighbors unstable; the two that are highly penetrated and almost bordered by China to the point of strategic adversity for India, and also bordering Indian states that are also witnessing instability stemming from India’s domestic, religious, and ethnic issues. For the time being, AL is their best bet to ensure political and security stability that offers India the ease it seeks. Thus, relations with India will continue to grow, albeit amid growing awkwardness when approached from the global/west purview.

In this regard, how the US will respond to the January 7 election and its results was eagerly awaited. The US statement that came out on January 9 about the elections is nothing surprising given the concerns that the US had been conveying to all quarters about the situation in Bangladesh.

Although PM Hasina has brushed off all concerns of any adverse steps that the US may take, the US response will definitely have an impact on Bangladesh’s global relations. The US along with other western countries, and HR organizations have continually raised several human rights concerns in Bangladesh, including the narrowing civic space, increased surveillance, intimidation, and reprisals often leading to self-censorship. The US visa restrictions are a direct response to the US concerns about democracy and governance in Bangladesh. The US has expressed its concerns about human rights in Bangladesh numerous times, and the sanctions on RAB are a direct result of those concerns accumulated over the years. There are reports that Bangladesh may also get sanctions for labor issues, and many attach this looming fear with the US concerns regarding Bangladesh's state of democracy and regarding Bangladesh polls in 2024. For the time being, the US is looking towards the future while being highly cognizant of the democratic and human rights concerns that according to the west continue to mar the image of Bangladesh, making engagement with the government more awkward than naught.

The fears of drastic US measures against Bangladesh have not manifested yet. The looming fears mostly stem from the lack of required development and improvements that the US and the west at large hoped Bangladesh would achieve. However, it is also a fact that the US continues to focus on the development of Bangladesh and the US support that it has provided for the same in the previous decades. The US statement on Bangladesh elections alludes to it, while the USAID Country Development Strategy underscores the same. The strategy states that the US through the USAID will build on its work in economic growth, education, health, energy, environment, food security, disaster preparedness, and democracy and good governance.

The US is the largest investor in Bangladesh. While Chevron's investment continues in Bangladesh's energy sector, other US companies seek to engage in Bangladesh economy regularly. US based ExxonMobil Corporation, one of the world's largest oil and gas companies, has expressed interest in exploring gas in all the open deepwater offshore blocks and some onshore blocks using the required two- and three-dimensional seismic surveys. The Bangladesh Government is planning to enter into an agreement with the American company, Excelerate Energy Bangladesh Limited, for the supply of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to the private sector. Under this arrangement, the company will provide LNG for 15 years starting from 2026. There are also rumors of Dhaka considering purchase of F-16s from the US, although the State Department had refused to sell these to Bangladesh in 1999, saying they were inappropriate for Bangladesh. Bangladesh military has evolved, and its capacity enhanced. The situation can be different this time if purchase efforts are made. In multiple exchanges, the US officials have expressed willingness to "strengthen and deepen" ties with Bangladesh. Also, the US key geostrategic priorities in Bangladesh include the US trying to influence Bangladesh to join its Indo-Pacific Strategy which is the key strategic outlook of the US for its Asia pivot, and to counter the rise of China.

This brings us to the Chinese engagements in Bangladesh, and the positive acknowledgment that Beijing has expressed on the results of January 7 elections. According to the Chinese Ambassador, “China and Bangladesh have jointly carried forward our Strategic Partnership of Cooperation this year. Chinese President Xi Jinping and the Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina held face-to-face talks again after four years, injecting new and strong impetus into the development of China-Bangladesh relations. Throughout the election year of Bangladesh, China has always extended its firm support to Bangladesh in safeguarding national sovereignty, independence, and territorial integrity, and opposing external interference. It is our true belief that the upcoming election is an internal affair of Bangladesh, and the future and destiny of Bangladesh should be decided by no one but its own people. China will always stand by the Bangladeshi people in pursuing a better tomorrow.”

Thus, China’s viewpoint on the way and result of the Bangladesh elections are quite clear and evident the Beijing being among the first capitals to congratulate PM Hasina. Same can be said for Moscow. Underscoring that elections are a country’s internal issue, Russia has strongly voiced concerns that the US is trying to intervene in Bangladesh’s internal issues, through trying to influence the election procedure. Bangladesh’s growing and historical relations with Russia are seemingly frowned upon by the US and the west, as they also fret about the burgeoning Chinese investments, and engagement in Bangladesh.

The EU did not send any observer team as did not any of the key western countries for the January 7 elections. Those who supposedly came are not representatives of the respective governments of the west. EU had mentioned that they are not sending any observation team for lack of budget, but subsequent discussions and statements give a strong impression that they were not confident of conducive environment of a free and fair elections in Bangladesh. The UK has made similar insinuations, and their statement about the Bangladesh elections allude to a future outlook albeit carrying the baggage of past and present concerns regarding democracy, shrinking of political space, and human rights.

However, irrespective of what these countries perceived pre-polls, January 7 has passed, and we all need to look towards what and how things will evolve in the coming days. The US and UK statements are clear indications of moving forward but that does not mean with a clean slate, at least for them it doesn't!

For India, China, and Russia, the road ahead is clear for relations with Bangladesh albeit a bit bumpy maybe when it comes to the Indian versus Chinese factor in Bangladesh. PM Hasina has astutely maneuvered the maze of India-China competition. It is likely to continue but with new caveats stemming from the US priorities in this region. Although, the US is amenable to have India as its key ally for South Asia, and a counterweight against China. However, given Delhi’s continued penchant to circumvent US concerns about Russia and maintain all relations, especially trade relations, underscores that India will follow its own policy dictated by its internal, regional, and global interests, and not just give in to US wishes. Thus, it is also likely that the US will to certain extent approach South Asian countries i.e., Bangladesh independent of Indian wishes. Thus, we will see that will continue to pursue its interests in Bangladesh through its key priorities and goals but will also unreluctantly take strong position and hard measures for ensuring that the ruling regime of Bangladesh adhere to its democratic, human rights, and civil rights priorities. As the US sanctions against Bangladesh's labor sector looms large, so will other tools and efforts of the US will be coming along in the coming months post Bangladesh elections, mostly to coax Bangladesh Government into compliance of US priorities in terms of governance and human rights.

Bangladesh will also continue to enjoy enhanced relations with Russia, as Moscow has begun to display its geopolitical clout in Bangladesh, especially since the pandemic. Russia has displayed, in fact competed with other global and regional powers through vaccine diplomacy to establish its geopolitical influence not only in Bangladesh, but in Asia. With overt narratives of supporting AL regime through being critical of the US positions on Bangladesh elections, Russia has made it clear that its relations with Dhaka will only move in a positive and burgeoning trajectory. The same will be the case with China. Relations are only going to enhance and evolve with a positive trajectory. Concerns from the US, especially India will be there, but PM Hasina would have to prove her diplomatic dexterity more than often in days to come.

A relative calm from the EU states underscores that they are not seeking to be as harsh as the US, but want to see the democratic and human rights improvements that they have regularly called for and advocated to Bangladesh Government. There have not been any overt concerns from the EU countries about slapping sanctions on Bangladesh or any entities of Bangladesh. But the US approach always influences EU policies in similar trajectory. However, EU is already in discussion with Bangladesh about the EU GSP facilities post LDC graduation of Bangladesh scheduled for 2026. The EU has a very potent tool to negotiate with Bangladesh for ensuring that the government improves its democracy and human rights record. However, it is unlikely that those negotiations will become a Sword of Damocles just yet.

Bangladesh is endeavouring to handle its relations with the US, while political narratives sometimes ruffles feathers on both sides. Navigating the dynamic geopolitical situation of the world while maintaining close relations with competing global powers will require astute diplomatic strategies and judicious decision-making on Bangladesh's part. While attempting to maintain relationships with China, Russia, and the US, Bangladesh will also need to prioritise human rights and democratic principles, particularly in the context of potentially embracing the Indo-Pacific Strategy, which is time and again highlighted as a key priority for the US, as it is in the US statement. However, if this embracement is subject to a decoupling from China, then it would be an impractical ask from Washington, as it would be demanding something that neither India nor the US has been able to achieve; proving that this concept of decoupling in this globalized word of production, strategy, supply chain, and information is a mere myth. Thus, Washington now speaks of derisking from China, a strategy that is also not feasible given the deep engagement China has with Bangladesh. However, the US will continue to push the AL regime for improved democratic and human rights environment; and, experts believe that targeted sanctions may be on the table. The US has used this tool globally, historically, and Bangladesh is not immune to it.

Sanctions have been employed for centuries as a weapon. By the 17th and 18th Centuries, European countries at war were inflicting sanctions against each other to prohibit trade. The US has in recent history imposed targeted sanctions, meaning they reduce collateral damage to civilians and are aimed toward those organisations or government officials responsible for the offence. In recent times, sanctions have been imposed as a result of the country's involvement in acts of terrorism, accumulation of nuclear weapons, human rights violations, military disputes, and other foreign policy concerns. Thus, targeted impositions are a viable option for the US, but it is unlikely that they would exceed those imposed against Myanmar with a much worse record of gross human rights violations and breach of democratic practices.

It is imperative that the AL Government ensures that improves its human rights and governance records in the coming years. With the multipolar geopolitical environment in the globe, with increasing frictions on multiple fronts among the global and regional powers, Bangladesh’s usual diplomatic maneuvering for maintaining effective policy of friendship to all and malice to none would not be an easy task. Dhaka’s diplomacy now demands deeper dexterity.

Author: Political and International Affairs Analyst