Ensuring accurate data key to reforming ‍agriculture, fisheries and livestock sectors

Dr. Jahangir Alam, a renowned agricultural economist and researcher, currently serves as the Director of the Dhaka School of Economics. Previously, he held the positions of Vice Chancellor at the University of Global Village and Director General of the Bangladesh Livestock Research Institute. Recently, due to severe flooding in 11 districts of the country, there has been extensive damage to the agriculture, fisheries, and livestock sectors. To recover from this damage, the interim government needs to implement specific plans and measures. He has discussed these issues in an interview with 'Views Bangladesh,' conducted by K.M. Zahid.

Views Bangladesh: According to the Ministry of Fisheries and Livestock, the floods in 11 districts in the southeastern part of the country have caused damages of approximately Tk 2,000 crores, affecting poultry, livestock, fodder, fish, chicks, and infrastructure. How will this damage impact our national life?
Dr. Jahangir Alam: This time, flooding was not widespread across all regions of Bangladesh. Flash floods occurred in about 11 districts in the northeastern, eastern, and southeastern areas. The severity of these floods has resulted in significant submersion of field crops and fish enclosures, while small animals such as chickens, goats, and sheep have been swept away. Farmers with poultry farms and hatcheries have faced substantial losses. In addition, goat and sheep farms, as well as dairy and meat-producing cattle farms, have also been heavily impacted. Consequently, the production of fish, meat, milk, and eggs has suddenly halted, leading to shortages in both demand and supply at the national level.

Floods in these 11 districts account for 15 to 20 percent of the country’s total area, and the government has estimated the damage at around Tk 2,000 crores. However, I believe this figure may not be entirely accurate. It appears to have been calculated based on estimates from local officials, which were then relayed through various ministries. The government's assessment primarily focuses on the fatalities, but it overlooks the significant morbidity rates among surviving livestock. Many cows, goats, buffaloes, and sheep that were previously productive have seen their output diminish. Additionally, many animals have been affected by diseases, leading to decreased milk production and disruptions in poultry and egg production.

Moreover, during this period, the marketing chain was severely impacted, disrupting the flow of goods alongside production. Therefore, I estimate that the losses to farmers may exceed Tk 3,000 crores, as many of these damages remain hidden from public awareness. The extent of destruction to infrastructure and animal feed has yet to be fully assessed.

Views Bangladesh: Incentives are crucial for rehabilitating the fisheries and livestock sector after the floods. How will this sector be restored, and who will support the affected farmers?
Dr. Jahangir Alam: While the overall damage might seem limited to 1 to 2 percent of the country, the farmers in the flood-affected districts have lost everything and are now destitute. Ensuring their recovery is our top priority. We must focus on quickly returning them to production. This involves not only financial support but also bank loans with waivers or deferrals, as well as new loans offered on easier terms. For those needing fish fry, the fisheries department can supply them from other parts of the country. Similarly, poultry farmers require immediate access to chicks and feed. Additionally, there is a risk of post-flood disease outbreaks. It’s vital that veterinarian and extension workers provide prompt treatment at the field level to prevent the spread of these diseases. They should be mandated to assist farmers actively and ensure they receive the necessary care.

Views Bangladesh: Current information indicates that the sector has suffered losses exceeding Tk 411 crores, including in milk, eggs, cattle, and poultry. Will this hinder food production and nutrition security in the country?
Dr. Jahangir Alam: In the flood-affected districts, poultry and egg production has been severely impacted, with many farms completely washed away or submerged. This disruption has led to a halt in production and a resulting market shortage. However, I don’t foresee a significant nutrition or food security crisis arising from this situation. Shortages tend to occur when prices increase, and we have already seen a rise in the prices of eggs and chicken.
That said, this price increase is likely temporary, as poultry grows quickly, and production will resume soon. The extent of flooding this year has affected about 15 to 20 percent of the country, which is relatively minor in the grand scheme. While it may not lead to an overall food shortage, there could be some protein or nutrient deficiencies if the affected areas do not return to normal production levels. Supply shortages may create instability in the market, causing prices to rise, but this should be a short-term issue.

Views Bangladesh: With the interim government in power and initiating reforms, what changes would significantly impact the agriculture, fisheries, and livestock sectors?
Dr. Jahangir Alam: To implement effective reforms, we first need accurate information about our agricultural fisheries and livestock sectors. Do we truly know the quantities of fish, meat, milk, poultry, and eggs being produced? Unfortunately, the current data is often exaggerated to please the government, which distorts market realities. This misinformation leads to poor market management and inflated prices, leaving consumers frustrated and disappointed when they cannot purchase products at reasonable rates. Such situations can escalate, as seen in past events. To address this, we need a robust system for gathering accurate data, establishing a science-based information bank through thorough field-level research. This is what we mean by reform.
Currently, the ministry provides figures for milk, eggs, fish, and meat production, claiming a per capita availability of 225 grams of milk daily, yet the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) reports only 34 grams consumed per person. For meat, the stated availability is 140 grams, while consumption is only 40.01 grams. In the case of fish, the availability is reported as 79.02 grams, but actual consumption stands at 67.08 grams. Eggs show a similar discrepancy, with an availability of 120 grams but a consumption of just 18.09 grams per person per day. If these figures are accurate, the differences are staggering.
These discrepancies stem from inflated data reporting, which has dire consequences for our nation. Our children and future generations suffer from a lack of protein and essential nutrients, hindering our potential as a talented nation. We must ensure the provision of accurate information across all sectors. Establishing correct statistics will be the true hallmark of meaningful reform in our time.

Views Bangladesh: Bangladesh is currently facing turbulent times. Given that the development of agriculture, fisheries, and livestock is primarily research-centered, how much attention can be given to research during these unstable periods?
Dr. Jahangir Alam: Following such a revolution, the country experiences instability not only politically but also in society and the collective psyche. This unrest affects research institutes and researchers, as their work requires deep focus, which is difficult to achieve under such conditions. If this situation persists, it can disrupt both lab and field research, ultimately impacting farmers' production and leading to shortages in the market. This, in turn, endangers consumers.
In Bangladesh, we typically engage in two types of research: basic and applied. Most practical research occurs at the institutional level, while basic research is conducted at universities. Unfortunately, funding for basic research is minimal, resulting in limited outcomes. Often, research findings remain confined to notebooks, failing to translate into tangible benefits for agriculture and farmers. Moreover, attempts to apply foreign research results in our context often yield poor outcomes, which diminishes the effectiveness of our agriculture, fisheries, and livestock sectors. Therefore, I recommend a significant increase in investment in research, ensuring that the right activities are conducted with close monitoring. This approach can lead to meaningful results for the country.

Importantly, we should emphasize biotechnology alongside the development of agro-fishery-poultry breeds and disease diagnosis and treatment research. Researchers and institutes need to stay updated on modern scientific advancements both domestically and internationally. By aligning our research programs with global best practices, we can better serve our nation’s agricultural needs.

Views Bangladesh: Thank you.
Dr. Jahangir Alam: Thank you too.