Future of India-Canada-U.S. diplomatic tension

It would not be incorrect to say that the current phase of diplomatic relations between India and Canada is the most strained and complex in history. Both countries are large in terms of area, population, and economy. A significant Indian-origin population resides in Canada. In fact, about 40% of all international students studying in Canada are from India. Therefore, the cooling of this relationship is particularly significant. Despite geographical distance, the friendship between the two countries began; however, it is quite interesting that for nearly two hundred years, tensions have arisen repeatedly between them. This story has had both sweet and bitter moments.

Both Canada and India were part of the British Empire. During Queen Victoria's reign, people from Asia, particularly China and Japan, began to migrate to Canada and the United States. They earned well and sent money back home. At that time, Indians were hesitant to migrate abroad. Only Sikh Punjabis had no objections to moving abroad for work; however, they lacked the courage to do so due to the prevalent attitudes in Canada that looked down upon people from the East. In such a situation, two companies, the Canadian Pacific Company and Hudson's Bay Company (similar to the East India Company), stepped in and assured them that Indian workers would be guaranteed jobs and treated with respect. Even then, only a few members of the Sikh community migrated to Canada.

In 1858, Queen Victoria made a historic declaration stating that Indians, regardless of caste, creed, or religion, would be considered equal. Following this, a larger number of Indians, particularly from the Sikh community, began to migrate to Canada. However, at the beginning of the 20th century, the Canadian government issued an order stating that Indian laborers could come to Canada, but they were not allowed to bring their wives and children. At that time, a sense of hostility towards Indians emerged within the Canadian government.

One heartbreaking incident to mention is that at that time, there were no ships available for Indians to migrate to Canada. In 1914, nearly 400 Sikhs embarked on a two-month journey on a Japanese ship named Komagata Maru, only to be denied permission to disembark upon reaching Vancouver harbor.

Meanwhile, food and water on the ship ran out, leading them to attempt to land. However, the Canadian government at the time informed the Sikh leader, Gurdit Singh, that if they did not leave the harbor, the entire ship would be burned with everyone on board. The passengers, facing death, were forced to return to Kolkata. They no longer wanted to go back home, as they had sold their properties to migrate. They revolted. Eventually, British police opened fire on the passengers, and Gurdit Singh was executed. Despite achieving full independence in 1982, Canada remains, in many ways, a land of the British and Americans, culturally and in terms of foreign policy.

However, in modern times, the tensions between India and Canada began in the 1970s and 80s. In 1974, India conducted its first nuclear test, codenamed "Smiling Buddha." Canada had previously assisted India with nuclear technology for peaceful purposes through the Canada-India Reactor project, but following the nuclear test, Canada ceased that support, leading to a rift in relations.

From the 1980s onwards, the Khalistan movement in Canada, demanding a separate homeland for Sikhs, gained momentum. India views this movement as separatist. Those who have acquired Canadian citizenship began campaigning for the independence of Punjab, organizing fundraising activities, etc. During this time, the Khalistan movement intensified. In 1984, India launched an operation at the Golden Temple in Punjab, resulting in the deaths of 400 people, including 87 Indian soldiers. India accused the separatists of using Canadian soil for their activities. In 1985, a bomb exploded on an Air India flight traveling from Montreal to Delhi, killing all 329 passengers. India claimed that Sikh separatists were behind the attack.

Again, in 1998, during Atal Bihari Vajpayee's tenure, India conducted nuclear tests, provoking Canada once more, which, along with its Western allies, imposed some sanctions on India. Eventually, those sanctions were lifted, and trade relations between India and Canada continued. However, after 2010, the relationship between Canada and India deteriorated significantly, primarily centered around the Sikh movement.

Today, India is no longer as vulnerable as it was in the 20th century. India's economic power has increased, its intelligence agencies have strengthened, and it has secured a position among the top four or five military powers globally. As a result, the current antagonism has become much more internationally significant. The Khalistan movement has gained considerable traction within Canada’s Sikh community. India has repeatedly accused Canada for inciting separatism among it's Sikh political leaders.

In 2017, the Sikh community banned Indian officials from entering in Gurdwara in Canada. India expressed strong objections to this action. Following this, in 2018, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau visited India to strengthen diplomatic relations; however, among his representatives was Jagmeet Singh, whom India considers a separatist. When the Canadian High Commission in India invited Jagmeet Singh for dinner, India grew even more agitated. In 2020, a farmers' protest erupted in India, primarily led by Sikh farmers from Punjab and Haryana. When Justin Trudeau expressed concern over the government's treatment of the protesters, India accused him of interfering in its internal affairs.

Now the question arises: why does the Canadian Prime Minister repeatedly speak on behalf of Sikhs and make statements regarding India's internal matters? The influence of Sikhs in Canada’s domestic politics is significant. There are 18 elected Sikh representatives in the House of Commons, and three full ministers in Trudeau's cabinet are Sikh. The New Democratic Party, led by Sikh leader Jagmeet Singh, was in coalition with Trudeau's government. Although that coalition has ended, their relationship has been reestablished. As a result, Trudeau feels pressure regarding Sikh's interests in domestic politics.

Then, starting June 18, 2023, relations between India and Canada faced their most severe challenge. On that day, Sikh Khalistani leader Hardeep Singh Nijjar, who held Canadian citizenship, was killed in Surrey, Vancouver. Canada views Nijjar as an activist, while India considers him the mastermind of the armed group Khalistan Tiger Force. Justin Trudeau alleged that Indian agents were responsible for Nijjar's murder, although India has consistently denied these accusations.

Recently, after the Royal Canadian Mountain Police reported that Indian government agents were involved in the murder of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, the Canadian government expelled six diplomats, including India's High Commissioner to Canada. In response, on the same day, October 14, India expelled Canada's High Commissioner, Deputy High Commissioner, and four First Secretaries from the country. In fact, India and Canada have informally imposed stricter visa regulations on each other.

Canadian Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly even hinted at the possibility of imposing sanctions on India. Meanwhile, aligning with Canada, the United States also stated that India had not provided sufficient assistance in the investigation. The spokesperson for the U.S. State Department, Matthew Miller, indicated that they support Canada in this conflict.

It’s noteworthy that Gurpat Singh Pannun, a leader of the Khalistan movement who resides in the U.S. and has acquired citizenship there, has issued threats of attacks similar to those of Hamas against the Indian government and announced various rewards for the overthrow of the Indian government and its fragmentation. In 2020, India designated Pannun as a terrorist and filed 22 charges against him, seeking Interpol's assistance, which was denied.

In 2023, there was an assassination attempt on Pannun. The U.S. accused a former Indian intelligence officer named Vikas Yadav of being involved in this assassination plot. According to U.S. allegations, this Indian intelligence officer provided all the arrangements and information about Pannun to the would-be assassin, Nikhil Gupta. The U.S. believes that Gupta is currently in India.

In other words, this conflict has effectively involved India, Canada, and the United States, leaving the future of their diplomatic relations uncertain. However, there is no doubt that the current relationship between Canada and the United States with India is quite strained. With elections in Canada scheduled for 2025, it seems unlikely that there will be any significant improvement in relations with the Trudeau government before that time.

Author: Litterateur and journalist.