How Chinese-Russian influence shapes the Palestine-Israel issue

China and Russia have long been supporters of Palestine; however, recently, they are being seen in a new and quite different role. Since the recent war in Gaza began about a year ago, they have intervened as mediators in the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians. In July, Hamas, Fatah, and nearly a dozen other Palestinian groups signed a temporary agreement in Beijing, aimed at forming an interim government for national reconciliation following the war in Gaza. These groups also held a meeting in Moscow in February for a similar agreement.

Both China and Russia maintain relations with important regional powers such as Iran, Syria, and Turkey. Unlike the rival superpower the United States, neither Beijing nor Moscow considers Hamas a terrorist organization. Therefore, there is no issue for China and Russia in inviting Hamas to dialogue. However, the question remains: will such mediation yield any real results?

Experts, however, believe that this is not possible. However, another important question arises: what do China and Russia aim to achieve through this intervention? They have two main objectives: gaining international influence and countering American and Western power globally. Although it cannot be said that Moscow or Beijing have a deep sympathy for Palestine in the Palestine-Israel conflict, both countries maintain strong ties with Israel. Since the start of this war, Russia and China have advocated for a peaceful resolution to the conflict. This peaceful approach, particularly from China, emphasizes the recognition of Palestinian territory as an independent state.

It's noteworthy that while Hamas is labeled a terrorist organization by Israel and the United States, China and Russia hold a different stance. For strategic reasons, they view Hamas as freedom fighters, and thus their message to Israel is to resolve the issue through dialogue. Conversely, Israel has conveyed to China and Russia that it is a gateway for Washington. In this context, it would be prudent for China and Russia to consider Israel in global problem-solving and address their bilateral issues with Washington.

In this regard, China has recently made changes to its diplomacy in the Middle East. Xi Jinping is reintroducing an ideological element into his foreign policy, but this has always been aimed at protecting China's interests. The Israel-Palestine conflict could facilitate the implementation of this strategy for China.

The relationship between Russia and Palestine began in a somewhat different way. When Israel declared its independence in 1948, the Soviet Union, under Joseph Stalin, was among the first countries in the world to recognize it. Mark Katz, an emeritus professor of government and politics at George Mason University, told BBC Mundo, "At that time, it seemed that Israel had a socialist inclination, while all its neighboring countries were European colonies." However, Israel did not become a socialist state, and by the mid-1950s, former Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev aligned herself with Arab nationalism. It was crucial for Moscow to support Palestinian interests because, as the United States backed Israel, Soviet support for the Palestinians increased its popularity among Arab nations.

However, while protecting Palestinian interests was a principled issue for many in the Arab world, for Moscow, it was merely a matter of gaining an advantage. They were not willing to support Palestine to the extent that it would create a conflict, particularly with the United States, and they were never outright anti-Israel. With the fall of the Soviet Union, Russia began to soften its stance towards Israel, easing policies that restricted the immigration of Russian Jews. When Vladimir Putin became president of Russia in 2000, over a million Israelis already held Soviet heritage, many of whom spoke Russian. Since then, the Kremlin has attempted to maintain a balance between its relationship with Israel and its support for the Palestinians.

Recently, however, this relationship with the Israeli government has cooled significantly, particularly since October 7 of last year, when Hamas launched a sudden attack on Israel, killing over 1,200 people and taking 251 hostage. In response, Israel has killed more than 41,000 Palestinians to date. China has already become the world's largest oil importer, with an estimated half of its oil coming from Middle Eastern and Persian Gulf countries. Does this mean that China's efforts to mediate in the Israel-Palestine conflict are tied to its economic interests? This question remains open. Many Arab countries have normalized their relations with Israel, and those that have not, such as Saudi Arabia, are prepared to do so once the Gaza conflict subsides. China understands this dynamic.

China's primary goal is to assert its position as a major power in competition with the United States. It aims to present itself as a rational and responsible great power interested in mediation and peacebuilding. Beijing is essentially seeking to promote an alternative perspective to the U.S.-led global order, particularly in regions where most countries support the Palestinians. However, China has no clear ideas on how to unify the Palestinians or resolve the complex conflict between Palestinians and Israelis, nor does it have significant interests tied to the resolution of this conflict.

For Russia, the conflict between Hamas and Israel has effectively diverted global attention from the war in Ukraine. Since October 7 of last year, not only has the Ukraine war been pushed off the news agenda, but some of the military assistance that the U.S. was sending to Kyiv is now being redirected to Israel.

The Kremlin believes that while the West accuses Russia of occupying Ukraine, it simultaneously applies a dual standard by remaining silent on Israel's actions against the Palestinians. After Russia's invasion of Ukraine, it has taken on a mediating role in the Palestine-Israel issue to emerge from the chill of international isolation. When Russia invaded Georgia in 2008, both Hamas and Hezbollah supported Russia's position, indicating that they did not take a stance against Muslims within Russia.

Experts suggest that despite maintaining a relationship with Hamas, it seems that the Kremlin has not sent any weapons to the group. One reason for this is that Russia does not want to take risks similar to those it is taking with Ukraine, where Israel could provide similar assistance.

However, their strategic objectives may be similar in some respects, especially in curbing U.S. influence in the Middle East and South Asia; but the approaches of China and Russia differ in this regard. Russia has become militarily involved in the region, as seen in the Syrian war. However, China has no intention of doing anything similar. China aims to maintain regional order in the Middle East for its own interests, while Russia seeks to completely dismantle it and reconstruct it in a way that benefits its own interests. Although Russia and China are advocating for a political solution to the Israel-Palestine issue, it is not difficult to see that this is essentially a diplomatic stance from their perspective.

In reality, their expectation is that this war be prolonged, drawing U.S. attention away from Ukraine and focusing it entirely on the Middle East. This way, both Russia and China can achieve their desired outcomes from the Ukraine conflict. Meanwhile, Russia has started blaming the Western world for the new crisis in the Middle East. They claim that by supporting Ukraine and ignoring the issues in the Middle East, the Western world has created a crisis that has allowed Hamas to strengthen, resulting in new problems and significantly increasing the influence of Hezbollah and other adversaries of Israel. According to the Russian government, the root cause of the 75-year-long Israel-Palestine conflict has been the United States. Essentially, the existence of the state of Israel in the Middle East has been sustained with the support of the U.S. and the West, which serves to secure their interests across the region. Meanwhile, China's active presence there has become a source of concern for the United States.

Now, continuing the fight against Hamas, Hezbollah, and other newly emerged militant groups is not feasible for Israel alone, and similarly, the unilateral presence of the United States is also insufficient. Russia can benefit in many ways from this Middle Eastern conflict; for example, it may create a rift in Western public opinion regarding the ongoing war in Ukraine, as Western countries place greater emphasis on Middle Eastern issues. This could lead to Ukraine losing international support and generate a narrative among the Ukrainian populace that Western countries are ignoring the Ukraine war. Ultimately, if the West collectively concentrates all its efforts in the Middle East, it could significantly undermine the morale of the Ukrainian government.

Analyzing these factors, we can conclude that although Russia and China do not favor Israel's attacks, they are not strongly opposing them for strategic reasons. Instead, they seem to be using their role in the United Nations to convey the message to the international community that the United States is, in fact, a war-loving nation, whose work is to perpetuate conflicts worldwide. The current situation indicates that the more the crisis intensifies and prolongs in the Middle East, the more Russia and China will benefit, thereby solidifying their positions in the complexities of international politics for the future.

Rayhan Ahmed Tapader: Researcher and Columnist