How US Trump card could change global diplomacy

Donald Trump has been elected as the 47th President of the United States. This is an incredible comeback for a former president who instigated a forceful attack on the US Capitol, was convicted of felony charges, survived two assassination attempts, and still refused to concede defeat. He criticized his opponent, Kamala Harris, using intensely personal language that exhibited misogyny and racism. He depicted a grim picture of a nation perceived to be overwhelmed by violent migrants. This abrasive rhetoric, coupled with an image of hypermasculinity, appealed to voters, particularly men, in a highly polarized political landscape. The fact that Trump is back in the President's seat underscores that the US society, both men and women, has voted for patriarchy, misogyny, racism, and fascism. His win against Harris, the first woman of color to contest in the Presidential race, marks the second time he has defeated a female rival. It may indicate that some sociology scholars are correct in their views that the US is not ready to accept a female President. They may add that it is further away from accepting a female leader who is not white.

Maybe it is the true nature of the US society that has just crept up more vividly than ever before while the country continues to display its disregard for all human rights, international law, decency, and integrity, beginning from the Iraq War and also before that. Even the genocide conducted on the Native Americans is simply the onset of this society's true nature. As the core of it seems immutable for now, let's try to assess what a second Trump Presidency will look like.

Trump pursued an "America First" foreign policy in his first presidency. This policy resulted in his withdrawal from major international agreements, launching a trade war with China, verbally antagonizing allies, and engaging in complex negotiations with several US adversaries.

For US domestic politics, Trump has vowed that in his second term, he will pursue an agenda centered on dramatically reshaping the federal government and pursuing retribution against his perceived enemies. He warned that he would deploy the military to target political opponents, threatened to take action against news organizations for unfavorable coverage, and suggested suspending the Constitution. He plans to launch the largest deportation effort in US history, to use the Justice Department to punish his enemies, and to expand the use of tariffs dramatically. He wants to pursue a zero-sum approach to foreign policy again. The approach threatens to upend longstanding foreign alliances, including NATO. Trump has said he would surround himself with loyalists who will enact his agenda, no questions asked. If it all becomes a reality, the US democracy touted as the best would not hold the test of time!

Trump will inherit various challenges when he gets into office in January. The list includes heightened political polarization and global crises testing the US influence globally. In this 2024 campaign, he pledged to impose an additional 60 percent import tariff on Chinese products and an extra 10 percent tariff on products from the rest of the world. According to a study by the Roland Berger consulting firm, assuming retaliatory measures from Beijing and Brussels as a response, the impact on the European Union economy will be $533 billion through 2029, $749 billion for the US, and $827 billion for China.

During his first term, Trump withdrew the US from multiple international agreements, including the Iran deal and the Paris climate agreement, which requires countries to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Other diplomatic casualties included a pact with Russia that limited the development of certain nuclear weapons from the Cold War era, the Open Skies Treaty that allows countries to conduct military reconnaissance flights, and two international agreements on migration.

In the second term, Trump pledged to withdraw from international agreements and organizations.
Trump committed to withdrawing the US from the Paris Climate Accords, which were re-entered under President Joe Biden's administration. He has expressed intentions to diminish US collaboration with certain UN entities, notably the World Health Organization, which he has previously criticized. Additionally, Trump has proposed establishing new tariffs, advocating for duties that could reach 20 percent on imports from US trading partners. He threatened to increase tariffs to 100 percent, specifically on imports from Mexico, the largest trading partner for US goods as of 2024.

One partnership that Trump would find hard to change is the US agreement with NATO. The NATO charter does not allow for an easy withdrawal. Recently, Congress passed a law requiring approval from Congress if the US wants to leave NATO. Trump can change how the US engages with any country in Asia or Europe. He could pull out troops, close bases, and stop investing in shared projects and logistics that keep the alliance strong. This could impact the US's position in NATO.

Two of Trump's former national security chiefs in a research paper said the US should Trump's weapons supply to Ukraine but make the support conditional on Kyiv entering peace talks with Russia. To entice Russia, the West promised to delay Ukraine's much-wanted entry into NATO. They also said that Ukraine should not give up its hopes of getting all of its territory back from Russian occupation but that it should negotiate based on the current front lines. Trump has underscored that his priority is to end the war and not drain US resources. Any improvement on the Russian-Ukraine front will be an excellent respite for the West, who might try to appease their disgruntled population protesting the genocide in Palestine.

As with Ukraine, Trump has promised peace to the Middle East.
He has repeatedly said that if he had been in power, Hamas would not have attacked Israel because of his pressure policy on Iran, which funds the group. Trump would likely attempt to return to the policy and apply more significant sanctions against Iran. In any form and shape that Trump tries to broker peace in the Middle East, it is unlikely to give Palestinians any respite from the ongoing genocide.

Trump enacted strongly pro-Israel policies in his first term, i.e., naming Jerusalem as Israel's capital and moving the US embassy there from Tel Aviv. The move energized the Christian evangelical base, a core Republican voter group, and in essence, proved to be the last step in bolstering Israel to carry out its genocide against Palestine. Critics argue his policy had a destabilizing effect on the region, and it is manifesting in a brutal genocide of all Palestinians, including children.

The Palestinians boycotted the Trump administration because Washington abandoned their claim to Jerusalem, and they were further isolated when Trump brokered the so-called "Abraham Accords," which saw a deal to normalize diplomatic ties between Israel and several Arab countries in exchange for getting access to advanced US weapons in return for recognizing Israel. They did so without Israel having to accept a future independent Palestinian state alongside it - the so-called two-state solution - previously a condition of Arab countries for such a regional deal. Trump introduced the concept of a "no two-state solution," something Israel always coveted, allowing the Zionists to become overtly and voraciously denying the concept. The Palestinians were left at one of the most isolated points in their history by the only power that could apply leverage to both sides in the conflict. It further eroded their ability to protect themselves on the ground as they saw it. The results of that happening are evident to the whole world.

Trump's supporters frequently characterize his unpredictability as an advantage in diplomatic negotiations. However, for the Middle East, which is currently experiencing a crisis of unprecedented scale and complexity, the implications of this approach remain uncertain.

The US approach to China is its most strategically important area of foreign policy as it would have the most significant implications for global security and trade. Trump imposed tariffs on some Chinese imports, making China a "strategic competitor," sparking tariffs by Beijing on US imports. Efforts to de-escalate the trade dispute were thwarted because of the pandemic, and relations got worse as Trump labeled COVID-19 a "Chinese virus." Biden administration claimed to take a more responsible approach to China policy but did not withdraw the Trump-era import tariffs.

Trump has praised Chinese President Xi Jinping as both "brilliant" and "dangerous" and a highly effective leader, a feat that opponents characterize as Trump's admiration for "dictators." The US has maintained military assistance for Taiwan, which China views as a breakaway province that will eventually be under Beijing's control. In all forms and shapes that one can estimate, the complexity of China-US relations will likely return, causing chaos to the global economy. The trade war that Trump has threatened to wage against China risks weakening global growth. Asia accounts for 60% of global growth. It would be hit hard because of the US-China trade war, as the International Monetary Fund warned earlier.

Moreover, A Trump presidency is seen strengthening the US dollar, with his policies leading to higher inflation and growth for the US, meaning the Federal Reserve would need to keep rates high to prevent the economy from overheating, which would be bullish for the dollar. Trump's plans to impose trade tariffs, force European allies to pay more for defense, and suspicion of multilateral institutions will likely depress growth elsewhere in the world, boosting the dollar's allure.

During his first term, Trump was dismissive of Africa, having cut some funding, curbed immigration, and reportedly referred to some of its nations as "shithole countries." Biden tried hard to convey that Africa is a valued and essential partner. His efforts gained some results. The US was praised for investing in the Lobito Corridor, a rail line stretching through Angola, the DR Congo, and Zambia to transport critical raw materials. In 2023, the US invested more than $22bn since Biden came to power, but there are concerns that Trump will roll back on this investment and trade. The African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa), enabling eligible African countries to export some goods to the US without paying taxes since 2000, is a key concern. Trump said the scheme would not be renewed when it expires in 2025. Africa gets most of its aid from the US. It has reportedly donated almost $3.7bn over this financial year. Trump's last administration repeatedly proposed slashing foreign aid worldwide. During Biden's administration, Russia increased its presence in Africa, mainly through providing troops and arms to countries hit by militants, such as Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso. Russia's increasing foothold is alarming for the US. In addition, China has already made and continues to make significant economic headways in Africa. Will Trump offer support to African countries to push Russia and China out? It does not seem likely. Instead, Trump, being the transactional leader, will approach this issue accordingly.

Trump's victory will have an enormous impact on Latin America. Conservatives like Argentinian President Javier Milei, El Salvador's President Nayib Bukele, and Jair Bolsonaro, the former Brazilian President, were among the first to congratulate Trump. Trump prefers such strongmen leaders, and they will also feel emboldened by Trump's victory. Progressives like Colombia's Gustavo Petro and Mexico's Claudia Sheinbaum will likely face a bumpy relationship with the US. Mexico will likely bear the brunt the most as it is the most significant trading partner of the US. Mexico's exports could be hit hard by Trump's protectionist tariffs.

The world is preparing for a bumpy and uncertain ride when Trump assumes power in January 2025. Only time will tell how the world will cope with the situation.

Simon Mohsin: Political and International Affairs Analyst.