In Hezbollah-Israel Conflict, Palestine is the Ultimate Casualty

Israel and Hezbollah again returned from the brink of an all-out war against each other. The two pulled back after an exchange of heavy fire this Sunday. The situation raised stark fears for the region getting embroiled in another war, while Gaza continues to be a victim of a live genocide. Regional tensions remain high. The conflict between Hezbollah and Israel is decades old, and it is likely to only escalate in the future. The two began the near-daily strikes and counterstrikes along the Israel-Lebanon border shortly after Israel began its genocide on Gaza. Since their recent mutual onslaught, global and regional actors have become active in containing the situation, and it seems they have succeeded for now. However, it is only a matter of time before these two engage in another escalation against each other.

Israel launched airstrikes with about 100 warplanes targeting Hezbollah's rocket launchers across southern Lebanon. Israel claimed to do so as a preemptive strike to thwart an imminent Hezbollah attack. Hezbollah launched more than 300 rockets and drones aimed at military bases and missile defense positions in northern Israel and the Israeli-annexed Golan Heights. Both adversaries, especially Israel, claimed to incur minor damage, while both claimed to have achieved the objective of their strikes. The key objectives of these strikes warrant further assessment to understand the two adversaries' goals with the recent strikes.

Hezbollah's primary objective was clear. It called the attack a response to last month's targeted killing of one of its top commanders, Fouad Shukur, in an Israeli airstrike in Beirut. Hezbollah leader Nasrallah stated in a speech that its attack was guided by the principle that the attack would not be on a civilian target, even though there are civilian martyrs in the southern suburbs of Beirut. Hezbollah was making it a point to underscore to the world and the region that its focus of attack is military installations only. This is a conscious attempt of Hezbollah to distinguish itself from Israel, which continues to target civilians, as has been Israel's unspoken and oft-denied military policy for a long; it is also apparent from the genocide that Israel is carrying out in Gaza.

Nasrallah's speech, delivered after Hezbollah's attack, also refuted several of Israel and Netanyahu's claims that received sufficient coverage in the Western media, unlike Nasrallah's speech. Netanyahu claimed that Israel had destroyed thousands of rocket launchers of Hezbollah inside the Lebanon border, but Nasrallah refuted those claims, underscoring that such falsehood only reflects Israel's military weakness.

The content of the speech offered clear insight and categorical objectives of Hezbollah's attack on Israel, which seemed to have accurately forecasted Hezbollah's imminent strike. Hezbollah had identified a primary target for the operation deep inside the Glilot Base, which houses a military intelligence base that is reportedly responsible for Israel-approved assassination operations. To be more specific, Hezbollah's intended target was the Israeli Military Intelligence (Aman) Unit 8200 base in Glilot, near Tel Aviv, and Hezbollah claims that one rocket had reached the base. According to prominent journalist Sam Husseini and James Bradford, a leading intelligence analyst, Unit 8200 specializes in eavesdropping, codebreaking, and cyber warfare. This unit's newest and most influential organization is the Data Science and Artificial Intelligence Center, which was responsible for developing the AI systems that transformed the IDF's concept of targets. Back in 2021, the Israeli military described its 11-day war on Gaza as the world's first AI war. Israel's ongoing invasion of Gaza offers a more recent example. Hezbollah's rockets successfully reaching this target raises grave security concerns for Israel, which has a more long-term goal implicit in its attack.

Israel continues to try and create unrest and instability in the region, either targeting Iran or Hezbollah. Israel's main objective is to engage in a long-term conflict in the form of a regional conflict or war with either Hezbollah or, preferably, directly with Iran. Israel has lost its global support to a great extent, with only the Western governments led by the US continuing to fuel and support Israel's convoluted narratives of self-defense, right to exist, anti-semitism, and whatnot. As the situation in Gaza becomes irremediable and irredeemable, Israel's above-mentioned and more narratives will eventually become ineffective and useless. In order for Israel to be able to continue and sustain its support from the Western governments, Israel needs a new frontier of conflict with a potent adversary with prevailing negative perceptions in the Western world. It is becoming increasingly imperative for Israel to get engaged in such a conflict and preferably compel the US to become actively engaged in the same. Otherwise, Israel will not be able to sustain itself in that conflict and also will lose all support beyond the Gaza situation. Thus, Israel is intent on compelling Hezbollah into a long-term conflict or doing so with Iran, which is preferable for Israel as the US' active participation in such a conflict is inevitable.

The Western governments face immense domestic pressures, mainly from youth and the general population, who are increasingly becoming more aware of Israel's previous apartheid and injustices with the ongoing genocide, making them more cognizant of the zionist nature. Israel and its cohorts within the Western government are well aware of this growing pressure that has the potential to force a decoupling between Israel and the West, mainly the US. The possible situation would open a pandora's box for Israel, with ICC, ICJ, international sanctions, and many other forms of repercussions for Israel, and also most probably for the US that, in all principles and considerations, is complicit in the genocide in Gaza. Thus, Israel continues to seek another long-term conflict, and its US cohorts are naturally fully engaged in fueling it. With the US faced with elections in the coming months, Israel likely agreed to contain itself from all-out war against Hezbollah as Israel needs to ensure that the US smoothly crosses the election hurdle and becomes fully active in supporting Israel again. The US support for Israel is unlikely to decline post elections irrespective of who wins - Kamala or Trump. It must be underlined that Trump is the one who showed unprecedented support for Israel, endorsing Jerusalem as Israel's capital, violating all international regulations without any qualms. Kamala had been an ardent supporter of Israel before being nominated for candidacy and has uttered some statements of protest against the sheer number of casualties in Gaza only recently. Her protest is likely nothing more than an electoral ploy to ensure votes and support from constituents who are against the US supporting Israel.

Of the entire Hezbollah-Israel situation, the biggest casualty again is Gaza, as the clashes between the two seem to occur when there seems to be some likelihood of progress in the ceasefire negotiations. Many experts claim that Hezbollah carries out its attacks during negotiation periods to put pressure on Israel to acquiesce, while others opine that Israel carries out such attacks during negotiation periods to thwart any potential progress. The latter seems plausible as Netanyahu has added new conditions to ceasefire agreement negotiations. These conditions are incorrigible for Hamas to agree to, thus allowing Israel to continue stalling until it achieves total control over Gaza, completing its genocidal intent. The information about the progress of the negotiation itself remains a confusing factor as the US, Israel, and Hamas continue to give incoherent narratives about the role, progress, discussion, and conditions pertinent to the ceasefire discussions and negotiations. Ultimately, it is the Palestinians that are the worst off in every probable situation that may occur in the coming days.

Simon Mohsin: Political and International Affairs Analyst.