India-Pakistan War: Nuclear tensions and role of global powers

The biggest concern about the war that has been going on between Pakistan and India since May 7 is that there is no strong mediation or de-escalation initiative from the international level so far. China, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Iran have offered to mediate. Iranian Foreign Minister Seyyed Abbas Araghchi has already visited the two countries. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is also in telephone contact with both countries. Still, the initiative to calm the situation through mediation between the two nuclear-armed countries does not seem to be enough.

Especially the statement by US Vice President JD Vance has disappointed many. Talking about India-Pakistan conflict, he said, “It is not our business”. In other words, it’s not their concern. Such a comment from a senior official of a major country, especially the US, after the start of a war was quite unusual. However, international analysts suggest that there is a reason for this. On one hand, the US is deeply engaged in the Ukraine war, and on the other hand, it is preoccupied with the Gaza situation and the Houthi rebels in Yemen, making it unable to focus on this issue at the moment. However, the fact that Secretary of State Marco Rubio is maintaining formal telephone discussions with both countries is a positive step.

Many incidents indicate that the situation is clearly not normal. The Pakistan Cricket Board wanted to move the Pakistan Super League (PSL) to the United Arab Emirates, but the Emirates Cricket Board did not grant permission. As a result, Pakistan was forced to suspend this year’s PSL. On the other hand, India has cancelled the ongoing IPL tournament. IPL is a major tournament and is not something that gets cancelled for minor reasons. In addition, numerous flights between the two countries have been suspended. Neither India nor Pakistan is willing to accept such a stagnant situation.

Since gaining independence, Pakistan and India have faced at least four major wars and numerous smaller border skirmishes over the past 80 years. In recent times, situations that nearly led to war occurred in 2016 and 2019 over the Uri and Pulwama attacks. Even during the 1999 Kargil War, the conflict was not as widespread. The Kargil War was limited to the Line of Control and the Kashmir region. The last major war took place in 1971.

This current state of war is different from previous India-Pakistan wars in several ways. In 1947, 1965, or even 1971, neither side had the capability to destroy an entire country. Now, they do. Today, the presence of drones, various types of advanced missiles, and state-of-the-art fighter jets has made both nations more confident and aggressive.

India has already launched attacks on several Pakistani cities, including Lahore and Karachi. In response, Pakistan has carried out drone and missile strikes in India’s Jammu, Udhampur, and Pathankot in Punjab. Such deep attacks clearly indicate a large-scale war. Another significant aspect of this war is that Pakistan’s Army Chief General Asim Munir is known to be hot-tempered and strongly anti-India in personal life.

On the other hand, India’s ruling BJP government is also strongly anti-Pakistan. A major part of their political stance is built on opposing Pakistan. For a long time, the Indian government has believed that all security threats in Kashmir are incited by Pakistan. It is true that India has transformed the economic condition of Jammu and Kashmir. It has managed to remove a large section of the common people from opposition to India. People in Jammu and Kashmir are witnessing the severe economic hardship in Pakistan-administered Kashmir, which has increased tolerance among them compared to the past. Exactly two years ago I visited Kashmir. There has been a radical change among the Kashmiris there.

The road infrastructure of Jammu and Kashmir has changed, and even Srinagar seems more orderly and tidier than many big cities in India. On the other hand, the economic condition of the entire Pakistan has reached a dangerous level. The poverty is evident in Pakistan-controlled Kashmir. The economic condition of Pakistan is really fragile, as can be seen by looking at the index. At the same time, Afghanistan's relations with Pakistan over the Durand Line have deteriorated a lot. Balochistan independence activities have gained momentum for some time now. Attacks on Pakistani security forces are frequent. Pakistan sincerely believes that India is behind the Baloch insurgency.

Another dangerous aspect of the two countries getting involved in the conflict is that the people of both countries are supporting the government, that is, the Indians are pressing for full revenge for the Pahalgam terrorist attack on April 22, while the people of Pakistan also want India to give a befitting reply to the May 7 attack. A major reason behind this is social media. The governments of both countries are strictly controlling social media and telling their own stories of victory. At the same time, they continue to narrate what wrongs the opponent has done. As a result, not only are the people being deprived of real news, but they are also becoming increasingly aggressive through government-controlled news.

No matter how much JD Vance says "not our concern," in reality, all arms-selling countries are deeply concerned about this war. Pakistan has shot down a state-of-the-art French Rafale fighter jet. French intelligence agencies have made every effort to prove this report false, but within two days, the United States confirmed that a Rafale was indeed shot down.

When the issue is selling cattle from two houses, who wants to praise the other house’s cattle? In fact, exposing the weakness of the competitor's product is a business tactic. The US confirmed that the Rafale was brought down by a Chinese J-10. Both are 4.5-generation fighter jets. While China’s aircraft had long been underestimated, the incident has now raised serious concerns among Western nations.

Because a direct confrontation between the United States and China over the Taiwan crisis is not impossible, there is now ongoing research into what type of systems or technologies these aircraft are using. Though many countries have issued formal statements calling for peace, they are in fact divided into two camps. Turkey has already provided significant military support to Pakistan. According to Indian military spokesperson Colonel Sofia Qureshi, Turkey has supplied Pakistan with drones of the Asisguard model. Additionally, amid the India-Pakistan tensions, on May 2, a Turkish C-130 Hercules military aircraft arrived in Pakistan carrying various military hardware. On the other hand, there are allegations that India is using Israeli drones and receiving military assistance from Israel.

Gunfire continues day and night on both sides of the border. At night, blackouts are enforced in cities on both sides. Immediate resolution of this situation is necessary not only for India and Pakistan, but for the entire region—even the entire world. A nuclear war may not happen, but if one country—especially Pakistan—faces a crushing defeat, there is no guarantee that nuclear weapons won't be used.

Therefore, this war must be stopped by the international community. It is not enough to focus only on arms sales and trade. Protecting human life is also a major responsibility of powerful countries. Although our experience shows that very little attention has been paid to that.

Mohsin Habib: Journalist, international affairs analyst.