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Iran-Israel nuclear war nothing but wrangle

Simon Mohsin

Simon Mohsin

Tue, 14 May 24

Iran’s nuclear doctrine has constantly underscored no plans to attain nuclear weapons, although the west has always been concerned of the contrary. Kamal Kharrazi, an adviser to Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has rekindled concerns over the country's nuclear ambitions. His statements underscored that if Iran's existence is perceived to be under threat by Israel, Iran will change its nuclear doctrine.

Tensions between Iran and Israel had reached a tipping point with the two sides launching attacks on each other several days ago. Iran had launched a barrage of explosive drones and missiles directly targeting Israeli territory, as a response to Israel bombing Iran’s embassy in Syria.

Reportedly, Ayatollah Khamenei's maintains his previous fatwa against nuclear weapons development. But this is not the first time that Iranian officials have hinted at changing of their nuclear doctrine. In 2021, Iran's then-intelligence minister had hinted that external pressures from the west could prompt such a reassessment.

The statement of the Iranian official is a stark reminder of nuclear fears that loom over a region that is fragmented on multiple fronts. Israel nuclear-armed power in the Middle East, and is the only country in the region with nuclear capabilities, although it has never officially acknowledged it. It is fait accompli and not governed by international agreements, as is the case for Israel for everything it seems. It was a covert operation for Israel, as is for many of the actions by Israel, unit now maybe, as it has changed its stratagem and is causing a genocide live for everyone to watch. Reports suggest that Israel began seeking a nuclear program in 1945 when the horrible weapon was first used. Israel began working with France in 1957, and created a plutonium based facility in Negev desert. US declassified documents in 1960s indicate that Israel’s nuclear program was happening and the Nixon Administration reluctantly accepted it, on conditions that it remains a secret. Well, it has remained a secet alright, an open one though!

Based on Israel’s recent behavior and actions, it is not entirely imprudent for Iran to consider posture that is contrary to its nuclear doctrine. Israel has shown no remorse for the genocide it carries out, and does not show any willingness nor respect for any international laws nor human rights. Moreover, there are concerns that Israel would stoop to a point where it would go to any extreme to involve in a conflict with Iran, and consecutively force its western allies to engage in the conflict with Iran.

Thus, a warning from Iran on changing its nuclear doctrine seems logical although intimidating because, if such a reality manifests, the repercussions of it would be devastating. However, it is still unlikely that Israel would use a nuclear strike against Iran unprovoked; Israel’s Zionist leaders have yet to lose their senses to that extent. And, Iran is not likely to provoke Israel, even though Iran continues to use strong language to criticize Israel’s genocide in Gaza. Moreover, the statement made by the Iranian official on Tehran considering changing its nuclear doctrine was a responsive statement to a question posed along those lines. Had it been a policy that was being strictly and profusely pursued, it would have come from different sources, more official than the adviser, and with more profound and carefully worded statements. Also, Ayatollah’s fatwa on the nuclear weapon issue being changed would also need to be changed and announced officially.

After analyzing the reports that have raised concerns of a nuclear conflict after the Iranian official’s statements, I strongly believe that it is only a war of word that ensues between Israel and Iran, with no real threat of such a situation occurring; not yet! For now, it seemingly remains a conjecture for the media, and security analysts to chew, spew, and churn on for the benefit of their own ratings.

Author: Political and International Affairs Analyst.

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