Is Trump's era the start of a new world order?

Donald Trump is set to take the oath as the elected president of the United States. In the current era, nearly every country in the world has some form of relationship with others. These relationships can be either friendly or adversarial, meaning that every country, especially major powers, has interests intertwined with others. Accordingly, the United States, the world’s largest economy and military power, has commercial, military, and even ideological ties or conflicts with nearly every country. These relationships also experience ups and downs. It is important to note that those who believe that US foreign policy does not change regardless of which party forms the government are influenced by outdated thinking. Such thinking is old-fashioned, a relic of the Cold War era, when the US maintained consistent policies toward the Soviet Union and the countries in the socialist bloc, regardless of which party was in power. However, that bloc has now collapsed, and even large socialist countries like China are now operating under free-market principles.

Another new feature has emerged. In some countries, the government may be pro-US, but the population is anti-US, and in others, it is the opposite. For example, in several European countries, the governments are pro-US, but a large portion of the population opposes the US, while in some other countries, the situation is reversed. Hungary and Serbia are examples of such cases. On the other hand, many countries around the world are currently embroiled in wars and conflicts, such as the Ukraine-Russia war, the Israel-Hamas conflict, and the civil war in Sudan. The United States itself is almost directly involved in all three of these conflicts. Therefore, a very sensitive period lies ahead.

In the United States, the identity of the president, their foreign policy, and their personal stance towards different countries are now considered with great importance—issues that were not as closely scrutinized in the past. On the other hand, internal politics in the US have become so polarized and politically contentious that the distance between politicians and party supporters on various issues has grown significantly compared to the past. One government's policies are being overturned by another without any logical reasoning. It feels as though the country is operating like a third-world nation!

Because of these factors, after Donald Trump unexpectedly won the U.S. election on November 5, 2024, the entire world took notice. Yes, it was truly unexpected! On January 20, he is set to assume office for his second term as president. His first term was in 2016 when he was elected as the Republican candidate. However, he was defeated by Joe Biden in the 2020 election and left office. After that, Donald Trump faced numerous challenges. Following his defeat, he was immediately linked to the January 6, 2021, Capitol Hill attack, with accusations that his supporters carried out the attack at his instigation. He had to face these allegations. Trump also faced a case involving a porn star where he was accused of paying hush money, which stirred controversy and led to legal challenges. He was also embroiled in a tax evasion case. For these various reasons, as well as his outspoken and unconventional statements, he has faced significant criticism.

Because of these factors, after Donald Trump unexpectedly won the US election on November 5, 2024, the entire world took notice. Yes, it was truly unexpected! On January 20, he is set to assume office for his second term as president. His first term was in 2016 when he was elected as the Republican candidate. However, he was defeated by Joe Biden in the 2020 election and left office. After that, Donald Trump faced numerous challenges. Following his defeat, he was immediately linked to the January 6, 2021, Capitol Hill attack, with accusations that his supporters carried out the attack at his instigation. He had to face these allegations. Trump also faced a case involving a porn star where he was accused of paying hush money, which stirred controversy and led to legal challenges. He was also embroiled in a tax evasion case. For these various reasons, as well as his outspoken and unconventional statements, he has faced significant criticism.

At one point, it seemed that Trump’s nomination would be nearly impossible. After surpassing all other contenders to secure the nomination, an incident occurred during his campaign in which he was shot. Although he was injured, he narrowly survived. Eventually, he re-emerged as president with the mandate of the American people, a victory that forced not only his opposition but also governments and people in Europe and other countries to take notice. Trump did not just win the presidency; he also gained a majority in both the US Senate and Congress. As a result, there is widespread speculation about what his government’s military and trade policies will be. Many countries are awaiting January 20 with hopes or fears about how Trump's second term will affect them.

What might happen once Trump assumes office and which direction global politics will take can be partially inferred by looking at his new cabinet. Some of his policy intentions are becoming clearer. Trump’s nominee for Secretary of State is Marco Rubio, who believes that China poses the greatest threat to the US in every way. While Rubio sees NATO as important, like Trump, he believes that other NATO members should increase their financial contributions to the alliance. He questions why the US should spend billions of dollars for ensuring the security of others. Notably, Trump has argued that European countries should spend 5 per cent of their budgets to cover NATO expenses, and he has threatened to withdraw from the alliance if they fail to do so. Marco Rubio agrees with this stance. On the other hand, European leaders are anxious because the leaders of several major European countries openly or subtly supported Democratic candidate Kamala Harris. Rubio, who believes in Trump’s "America First" policy, might put Europe in a difficult position as a result.

For the next US Secretary of Defense, Trump has chosen Peter Brian Hegseth, commonly known as Pete Hegseth. He believes that Islam has fallen into the hands of Islamists who wish to destroy Jews and Christians. His views on China align closely with those of Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Hegseth also believes that the victory in the 2020 election was snatched from Trump.

For Treasury Secretary, Trump has selected Scott Bessent, who is a strong proponent of imposing tariffs on various countries. He believes that while the US has kept its markets opened to the world, China’s economy has become increasingly powerful, presenting a significant obstacle to the US. The only solution, according to Basset, is to impose high tariffs. Trump has chosen Michael Waltz for National Security, an expert on China and Afghanistan. Waltz believed that Afghanistan’s people could be culturally transformed without the use of excessive force. However, he is staunchly anti-China. In a speech as a congressman, he said, "We are in a new Cold War with China’s Communist Party." There are many others in Trump’s circle who share similarly hostile views towards China. This indicates that trade tensions with China will likely intensify during the Trump era, and it would not be surprising if new fronts for war open up in the process.

Europe has reason to be concerned. Donald Trump has chosen Matthew G. Whitaker as NATO Ambassador. Whitaker believed that Russia meddled in the US elections in 2016 and 2018 to help Trump win. He is now notably more lenient toward Russia and Vladimir Putin. The US-appointed NATO Ambassador is extremely important for Europe. He is a supporter of the new President Trump, who is about to take charge regarding the Ukraine war. It is clear that he will not be as pro-Ukraine as his predecessors, such as Julian Smith or Scott Oudkirk, who were appointed by the Democratic Party.

Although these matters are becoming clearer, the new US President Trump's policies towards India and Pakistan are still unclear. Among the individuals he has appointed to key positions, some support the current Indian government, while others oppose it. Therefore, it is better not to comment on this matter. However, three things have become clear: The trade war with China will intensify, immigration restrictions will tighten and Europe will be pressured to take a more active role in the Ukraine war, while the US may scale back its involvement.

No matter how much he claims that he will end the Ukraine war, it is difficult to say how successful he will be. To end the war, Russia would have to relinquish the territories it has occupied, which could severely damage Trump’s relationship with Europe. How much Trump will take this into consideration remains to be seen in the near future.

We only see the power of the country's president, but we can hardly imagine how difficult it is to run the United States and maintain overall balance. Let’s see how President Donald Trump, with his character beyond traditional traits, handles the situation.

Mohsin Habib: Writer, Journalist, and Analyst of International Affairs.