Israel, Iran are on the brink of all-out war!

A terrible, unequal war is ongoing in West Asia. Since October 7, 2023, the Ministry of Health of Palestine reports that over 41,500 people, including women and children, have lost their lives in Gaza, with 96,000 suffering serious injuries. The Israeli offensive has devastated the territory, effectively reducing much of Gaza to rubble. Practically all the resistance forces of Gaza, including Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Al-Qassam Brigades, and Al-Quds Brigades, have been exhausted.

This crisis extends beyond warfare; it has evolved into a severe humanitarian disaster. The majority of the population is without shelter, and essential services such as electricity, water, and sewage systems have collapsed. Various international organizations, including the United Nations, are attempting to deliver food and medicine to stave off famine for approximately 2.2 million Gazans, with much of the aid being facilitated through Israel. In other words, although there has been no formal announcement, the war in Gaza is effectively over.

As a result, Israel has shifted its focus to Hezbollah in Lebanon. In the past week, Israel has launched extensive attacks on Hezbollah strongholds. A significant development during this campaign was the so-called Pager Attack. On September 17, pagers—electronic devices used for communication, similar to walkie-talkies—exploded simultaneously in Lebanon and Syria.

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in last February had warned his fighters that Israeli intelligence might access mobile networks. Following this warning, Hezbollah procured 5,000 gold Apollo company pagers from Hungary. There is considerable speculation regarding this incident, but it raises questions about Israel's intelligence capabilities. There is a lot of speculation about this now; however, there is no reason for Israel to be unaware of this information in advance.

Reports suggest that Israeli intelligence agencies had planted approximately 3 grams of explosives, known as Pentil, in each pager about five months prior. On September 18, additional explosions involved a walkie-talkie and several laptops and mobile devices. Over these two days, 42 people lost their lives, and around 3,500 were injured, with 80 to 90 percent of casualties being Hezbollah members. This attack has significantly weakened Hezbollah, leaving the group vulnerable to ongoing Israeli operations.

The situation in Lebanon has escalated dramatically, with reports indicating that over 800 people have died as Israel intensifies its efforts against Hezbollah. Since the October 7 attack by Hamas, which resulted in 1,240 Israeli casualties and the taking of hostages, Hezbollah has also engaged in the conflict by firing rockets into Israel. For some time, Israel has carried out limited retaliatory attacks on Lebanon, but it has now begun full-scale operations. Naturally, questions arise: once the operation against Hezbollah is complete, will Israel target the Houthis in Yemen, or will it directly attack Iran? Or will Iran launch an attack on Israel soon?

Speculation includes possible actions against Yemen's Houthis or Iran, especially given the Houthis' missile attacks on Israel and their actions against shipping in the Red Sea.

Meanwhile, even amidst the Hamas-Israel conflict, the Houthis have carried out several attacks on Israel, including a hypersonic missile strike. Israel has taken the matter very seriously. Additionally, the Houthis have attacked numerous ships navigating the Red Sea. On the other hand, there have been sporadic missile exchanges between Iran and Israel, which are not insignificant. On April 1, Israel conducted an airstrike on the Iranian embassy in Syria, killing 16 people, including Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Zahedi, a senior member of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, most of whom were members of Al-Quds. Iran announced that it would take revenge, and on April 13, it launched 300 missile, drone, and rocket attacks toward Israel. However, Iran had informed the United States a few hours before launching the attack that they were planning to do so which some analysts interpreted as a move to address internal political pressures. In response, Israel targeted an Iranian nuclear site, indicating a rapidly evolving and dangerous regional dynamic.

Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi on May 19 was reportedly killed in a helicopter accident during a visit to East Azerbaijan province, raising suspicions among experts who believe it may not have been an accident. Among a fleet of three helicopters, the one carrying Raisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian crashed in a remote mountainous area. Although this incident is being labeled merely as an accident, many experts still believe it is far from just that. Following that, on July 31, Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was also killed in Iran under mysterious circumstances, with speculation about the cause of his death pointing to possible Israeli involvement. Some have claimed that a bomb was planted in the rest house, while others suggest that he was killed by a projectile launched from a distance. Regardless of the method of assassination, many countries, including Iran, have pointed fingers at Israel, which is only natural.

These incidents highlight the ongoing proxy conflict involving Iran, which is known to supply weapons and support to groups like Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis in Yemen. While Iran's indirect involvement in these conflicts is clear, whether it will escalate to a direct confrontation remains uncertain. The geopolitical dynamics are complex, and many factors will influence Iran's decisions moving forward.

The ongoing conflict between Israel and armed groups in the Arab world is significantly different from the Arab-Israeli wars of 1948, 1967, and 1973. In 1948, during the establishment of the state of Israel, countries like Egypt, Transjordan, Lebanon, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and North Yemen directly participated on the Arab side. Similarly, in the 1967 Six-Day War, Arab nations united to fight, with Egypt, Syria, Jordan, and Lebanon actively involved. Of course, there was also support and assistance from other Arab countries.

Subsequently, during the 1973 Arab-Israeli war, known in history as the Yom Kippur War or the Ramadan War, almost all countries in West Asia and North Africa joined Egypt and Syria against Israel. In every one of those wars, Israel emerged victorious in one way or another; however, at that time, Iran—today’s biggest enemy of Israel—was relatively tolerant of Israel. After Turkey, Iran was the first Muslim nation to recognize Israel. During the 1948 war, 30,000 Iranians protested in the capital, Tehran; however, Iran did not take any sides. Instead, from 1953 to 1979, it remained an ally of Israel. After the Islamic Revolution in Iran, the country severed all ties with Israel and denied its existence. Since then, the relationship between Israel and Iran has increasingly become more bitter and hostile.

On the other hand, Israel's relations with currently powerful countries like Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Egypt have normalized, and these nations are not only refraining from opposing Israel but are also displaying signs of friendship in certain instances. For example, when Iran launched 300 missiles and drone attacks towards Israel, several of them were intercepted over Jordan and Saudi Arabia on charges of violating their airspace. Discussions for establishing formal diplomatic relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia were underway and had progressed significantly. Israel believes that Hamas, encouraged by Iran, launched an attack on October 7, 2023, to thwart this progress.

Anyway, after Hamas, nearly 900 Lebanese have been killed in the uneven conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, and one million people have been displaced from their homes. On the other hand, two Israelis have been injured in sporadic rocket attacks by Hezbollah. Many believed that after completely defeating Hezbollah, Israel would likely pause its operations, meaning it would not attack Iran or the Houthis in Yemen. However, Israel has realized that after the Pager attack, continuous airstrikes, and the death of Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah is quickly weakening. Thus, on September 29, Israel rapidly began targeting specific positions of the Houthis. Nonetheless, many believe that it won’t go much further unless Iran instigates a significant event in the meantime.

Several reasons may lead Israel to limit its attacks. First, defeating Hezbollah has become essential for Israel. Due to repeated attacks by Hezbollah, 60,000 Israelis had to be relocated from the border area with Lebanon, and Israel wants to secure that region. Thus, attacking Lebanon was necessary for them. Second, despite its victories in the war, Israel is somewhat fatigued. Third, both Yemen and Iran are quite far from Israel, making it costly to conduct repeated or prolonged attacks on the vast Houthis' positions in Yemen. Therefore, Israel aims to utilize the power of the United States and the United Kingdom to deal with the Houthis in the future. For now, they want to destroy specific military installations. If Iran gets involved, Israel has stated that the U.S. will join in the conflict, as expressed in a statement shortly after Israel's attack on the Houthis on September 29. The U.S. has said it is capable of military intervention within a short time.

However, this could change. In a speech at the United Nations, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu issued a stern warning, stating that any attacks would be met with retaliation. Meanwhile, following the killing of Hassan Nasrallah in Lebanon on September 27, Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei declared that revenge would be taken for Nasrallah's assassination. The United States and the United Kingdom want to ensure that Israel does not further escalate the conflict after its operations against Hezbollah, as this could ignite the entire Middle East. There could be calls for regime change in various countries in the region, and Russia, or even China, might involve themselves in the conflict. In such a scenario, the United States would also have to engage directly in the war, leading to a global catastrophe.

Mohsin Habib: Senior Journalist and International Affairs Analyst