Israel's military expansion foreshadows increased conflict

Netanyahu's thirst for blood has not been quenched by the genocide in Gaza, so he has become desperate to satisfy it with the blood of Lebanon. Therefore, he has rejected the international community's call for a ceasefire with the Hezbollah group in Lebanon. He has instructed Israeli forces to attack Lebanon with full force. As fears of an all-out war in the Middle East increase due to Israel's assaults in Lebanon, the United States, United Kingdom, European Union (EU), and several Arab states have called for a 21-day temporary ceasefire in Lebanon. They have also expressed support for a ceasefire in the Palestinian territories of Gaza.

After the Israeli forces launched a massive attack in Lebanon, more than 550 people have been killed, and over half a million have been displaced. Israel is also continuing its assaults in the Gaza Strip. In a joint statement, the United States, Australia, Canada, the European Union, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar have indicated that it is time for a diplomatic resolution to allow civilians to safely return to their homes along the Lebanon-Israel border. French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barré stated at an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council regarding Lebanon that Paris and Washington are proposing a three-week ceasefire to facilitate discussions and allow for a more sustainable ceasefire. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has called for an immediate ceasefire in Lebanon. While Israel has welcomed the diplomatic issues raised regarding Lebanon, it has not agreed to a ceasefire. Experts, however, assert that Netanyahu must be stopped.

He has committed another crime through the horrific attacks in Lebanon. Will those who are considered to care about civilian life and human rights, such as Britain, the United Nations, and others, really turn a blind eye if the out-of-control Israeli Prime Minister commits this crime again? Such an event is hard to believe. In this context, it can be said that Netanyahu may be turning southern Lebanon, or even all of Lebanon, into a second Gaza. Since the brutality of Hamas on October 7 last year, over 41,000 Palestinians have died, most of whom are ordinary civilians. In Lebanon, more than 550 people have been killed by Israeli forces, many of whom are children. Thousands have fled their homes.

How many more innocent people will this man kill before he steps down? Netanyahu has stated that the latest massacre was necessary to "restore security balance." The reality is that Netanyahu himself is unbalanced. By ordering the removal of a sovereign country's population from southern Lebanon, he has indicated that Israel's unprecedented airstrikes there will intensify. A military operation on Lebanese soil could also occur. His strategy did not work in 2006 and it will not work now. Netanyahu's tactics have consistently failed automatically. Recently, in response to 1,300 Israeli attacks, Hezbollah is launching more rockets than before. Moreover, they have expanded their attacks. Their current goal seems to be to ensure that displaced Israeli residents cannot safely return. Violence begets violence. It does not bring security; it only breeds hatred and revenge. As usual, Netanyahu is sending mixed messages. Which one should be believed?

Netanyahu has claimed that the overall operation has a limited objective—to restrain Hezbollah and drive them away from the northern banks of the Litani River. He claims to care for the civilian population of Lebanon, just as he has claimed to care for Israeli hostages held by Hamas since October 7, many of whom have tragically died. However, in his misguided aim to destroy Hamas, Netanyahu has deliberately escalated the conflict with Hezbollah, leading to a second confrontation that U.S. diplomats have spent months trying to prevent. This escalation began with last week's attacks on walkie-talkies and pagers and the killings of key commanders. Most importantly, he seems intent on remaining in office and in power by perpetuating the war.

Hezbollah has always been clear. They have stated that they will stop launching missiles only if a ceasefire agreement is reached regarding Gaza. It is known that Netanyahu has obstructed such agreements multiple times. Despite this, Israel's ambassador to the UK has insisted on the BBC's Today program that Hezbollah poses a threat to the north due to its terrorist activities. Whose terrorism? Tzipi Hotovely? Theirs, or yours? The Israeli government's denials and misdirection continue, flowing from the top down. Netanyahu must be stopped; but who will do it? Not U.S. President Joe Biden, who will again state at the UN this week that he has a plan. In reality, he has misguidedly led this crisis down the wrong path. He is concerned that the flames of conflict across the Middle East could jeopardize the prospects of Kamala Harris and the Democrats in the November elections. So why is he not taking action?

He is concerned that if a position is taken against Israel, what will be the status of the courts? Will international law stop further aggression under Netanyahu's leadership? You won't have to wait long for the answer. Without any explanation, the judges of the International Criminal Court have yet to issue an arrest warrant against Netanyahu for war crimes in Gaza, as requested by the chief prosecutor in May. This long and unexplained delay raises suspicions. So what is the position of the United Nations itself? They have called for the evacuation of the occupied territories, where Israel is carrying out severe oppression. They may also mention the numerous ignored Palestinian proposals that should be finally implemented. However, it would be better for them to focus on restoring their fragmented authority.

Incredibly, Netanyahu is set to speak at the General Assembly this week. The UN should ban him instead of giving him this opportunity. If he shows up there, they should ignore his diplomatic privileges. The police and FBI in New York City should arrest him and take action against him, especially considering the charges. Netanyahu is dangerous. He must be stopped by all available nonviolent means. If the ongoing war in Gaza were like all other wars, there might have been a different picture by now. A ceasefire has recently occurred there. However, that ceasefire might have happened long ago. The dead would have been buried, and Israel might have had to argue with the UN about how much cement would be needed for Gaza's reconstruction; but this war is not like that. The widespread massacre happening here is not the only reason.

The massacre began on October 7 with Hamas targeting mostly Israeli civilians. Israel then launched a counterattack, which Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu referred to as "horrific revenge," resulting in the deaths of many Palestinian civilians. This war is different from others because it occurs at a time when the fault lines dividing the Middle East have been stressed. For the past two decades, the geopolitical landscape here has seen Iran and its allies on one side, and the United States and its allies on the other. At the core of Iran's network, often referred to as the "Axis of Resistance," are Lebanon's Hezbollah, Syria's Assad government, Yemen's Houthis, and Iraq's armed forces, all of whom receive arms and training from Iran. The Iranians have also been supporting Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Gaza.

At the same time, Iran is becoming closer to China and Russia. Iran plays a significant role in the war that Russia is conducting in Ukraine. China, in turn, buys vast amounts of oil from Iran. The longer the war in Gaza continues, and the more Israeli forces kill Palestinian civilians and destroy thousands of homes, the greater the risk of conflict among members of these two allied groups. However, in the current atmosphere of pain, hatred, and fear, applying this concept will be extremely difficult. Under the current leadership of Israel and Palestine, it is impossible. The Palestinian Authority has been assisting Israel for security in the West Bank but has failed to protect its own people from armed settlers. Leadership will eventually change. However, if this tragic war in Gaza does not compel Israel, Palestine, and their powerful allies to establish peace, then further wars await in the future.

Rayhan Ahmed Tapadar: Researcher and Columnist