Japan faces new era of political instability as LDP coalition loses majority

Japan faced a period of political instability on Monday after its longtime ruling party suffered its worst election performance in 15 years, leaving Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba under pressure to resign and casting doubt on the makeup of the next government.

Sunday’s vote saw the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its junior coalition partner, Komeito, fail to secure a majority in the country’s powerful lower house, setting off a scramble to find smaller partners to form a government within 30 days.

Ishiba, who became prime minister just last month, had hoped the election would solidify his leadership amid public outrage over a political funding scandal and rising living costs. Instead, his gamble backfired.

The ruling coalition won just 215 seats, far short of the 233 needed for a majority. For the LDP, which has dominated Japan’s post-war politics, it was the worst showing since 2009, when the party lost power for four years.

“The result is that the Japanese political system is indeed entering a new and uncertain period,” said Tobias Harris, founder of Japan Foresight, a political risk advisory company.

Despite major gains, the opposition – ranging from Communists to far-right groups – is seen as too divided to form a government. Many opposition parties have also ruled out joining a coalition with the LDP and Komeito, further complicating the path forward.

Some analysts predict the LDP and Komeito may try to form a minority government, relying on smaller, center-right parties like the Democratic Party for the People and the Innovation Party, to pass legislation on a case-by-case basis.

However, such an arrangement would not be “particularly stable” and would be vulnerable to collapse if it fails to meet opposition demands, Harris wrote in a blog post.

Another question is the fate of Ishiba himself. Just last month, Ishiba emerged victorious over his more conservative rivals within the LDP, including those loyal to the late prime minister and conservative icon Shinzo Abe.

But the election result has weakened both Ishiba and the Abe faction, with many of Abe’s allies losing their seats after being implicated in the slush fund scandal.