Kamala-Trump poll race and the future of Bangladesh politics

Through his Friday's statement over the 'mob violence' on minority community people, Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump has made the issue of US interference in the recent politics of Bangladesh much clearer. So far, a suspicion related to the July-August mass uprising has been the top issue of discussion and criticism in the columns, reviews, and social media platforms. That is: The uprising was planned and carried out under direct supervision of the United States. Through his remarks, Donald Trump has added a new dimension to that discussion. The former US president's message on X, the social media site formerly known as Twitter, has now become the talk of the country ahead of the final electoral race in the USA.

Trump fired off a post on the recent situation in Bangladesh on the X handle on October 31. In this post, he condemned the 'brutal violence' on religious minorities in Bangladesh. He also commented that a chaotic situation is prevailing in Bangladesh at present. The most important comment is 'It would have never happened on my watch'. The literal meaning of Trump's statement is that if he had the power of the United States, such an incident would not have happened in Bangladesh. Through this speech, Trump clarified the direct role of the United States in the recent politics in Bangladesh. This statement of the former US president about the political situation in Bangladesh carries a different meaning.

Bangladesh interim government Chief Adviser Dr. Muhammad Yunus's 'close contact' with the US Democrats has been a popular talk for a long time. Especially, Dr. Muhammad Yunus is a close friend of the 2016 presidential candidate Hillary Clinton and current US President Joe Biden. In this election, Joe Biden was the first presidential candidate, but later the Democrats changed candidates and announced the name of Joe Biden's Vice-President Kamala Harris. And the Republicans have retained former president Donald Trump as their candidate. But apart from the Kamala-Trump electoral face-off, the main fight will be on the question of Joe Biden's policies in the last four years. The Biden policy or the Trump policy, which was more suitable for the United States, will play a key role in the results of this election.

In this situation, Donald Trump posted his remarks mentioning the name of 'Bangladesh Just five days ahead of the poll. This statement is deemed to be an embarrassment to the current interim government led by Dr Muhammad Yunus. Most importantly, Trump said: 'It would have never happened on my watch' or if he was in power, such an incident would not have happened in Bangladesh. In this context, the question arises, if Trump wins the election, would the policy of the Biden administration on Bangladesh change radically? How will it change? Who will benefit in Bangladesh from the policy change? How will the relationship of the Trump administration with the current Biden-backed government in Bangladesh?

As the bitterness of the Trump-Biden relationship became visibly clear since the 2020 presidential electoral race in the United States, it will not be an unusual question: Would Trump support this pro-Democrats government in Bangladesh? And what will happen if he doesn’t extend his support?

Although we have seen earlier that the US usually doesn’t bring many changes in their foreign or international policies with the shift of power, after the 2020 presidential election, US policy has been seen to be changed radically in some areas. For example, Donald Trump has adopted a policy of improving relations with countries that have been hostile to the United States for a long time. He also met with the President of North Korea. Trump's Middle East policy has not offered unconditional support to Israel in question of indiscriminate attacks, killings, and waging war on Palestine. Rather, Trump has been meeting with the heads of the states of the Arab countries for a permanent end to the war in the region. On the contrary, Joe Biden came to power and went on a policy of increasing hostility with enemy states. Direct evidence of this is the Russia-Ukraine war. Although the long-time allies of the United States in Western Europe do not want this war, the Biden administration has created this war situation with a single policy. The negative consequences of this have to be suffered by the people of the United States and the whole world. In the Middle East, Biden emphasized the policy of creating and maintaining a state of war. Biden's war policy has bled from Palestine to Lebanon. There is no doubt that Joe Biden's running mate Kamala Harris will contain the Biden policy and expand the bloody chapter of the Middle East to new frontiers if she is elected.

Now the question is if Trump wins, what will happen? Surely Trump will go back to his old policies. Four years into his first term, Trump adopted a new diplomacy of establishing US global supremacy not through war, but through stability and building relationships of trust. Trump's policies also differed from those of his Republican predecessors. For this reason, many international political analysts call Trump an independent president of the United States rather than a 'Republican President'. Therefore, in the case of Bangladesh, will Donald Trump take a position against Biden's policy?

Trump answered this question in his X handle post. He described the current situation in Bangladesh in his own way and commented that he would not have allowed such a situation to arise if he was in power. This means that Donald Trump does not condone the current situation in Bangladesh and he will take a stand on the contrary. Now the question is what is the opposite position? So will Trump's blessings go in favor of the fallen Awami League government?

Considering the current reality and the history of American diplomacy, Trump's position has changed, but it does not seem to go in favor of Sheikh Hasina or the Awami League as the government of any other country can't give active support to the government that fell through a mass uprising or to the head of the government who was overthrown and fled. Giving shelter to a former head of government who fled the country and supporting her return to power are not the same thing. This is where diplomacy gets foggy.

Rather, no matter whether Trump or Kamala is elected, the biggest focus of US policy in the future around Bangladesh will be to keep an eye on the rise of extremism in the country. According to media reports, the current Biden administration has also given a diplomatic message to the interim government of Bangladesh regarding this issue. Neighbouring India is sure to have this concern as well. And in the geopolitical reality of South Asia, India, and the United States have agreed to work based on joint partnership on regional security issues. As a result, it is a fact that both India and the United States will not support the rise of extremism in Bangladesh. China and Russia also have large investments in Bangladesh. Therefore, China or Russia will not want political instability or the rise of extremism in Bangladesh for the sake of investment.

Political instability in any country is the biggest contributor to the growth of extremism. Political stability is indeed impossible without an elected government formed through a national election acceptable to all. For this reason, it is reasonable that the diplomatic messages of China, India, Russia, or the United States will be pressured to hold a national election as soon as possible. Even within the country, the BNP and like-minded parties have also expressed their clear stand in favor of national elections. The government has also set up a search committee to form a new election commission. Through this, the current government's journey towards national elections has started.

Bangladesh's electoral system was destroyed during the defunct Awami League government. Hopefully, the current government will restore people's confidence in the electoral system by conducting a free and successful national election. The government elected in that election will build a political culture of mutual respect, and humane understanding, through which a new Bangladesh of prosperity and progress will be built instead of the culture of revenge and arrogance. Whether Trump or Kamala is elected the president of the United States, there must be cooperation and support in building a new Bangladesh of peace, stability, and prosperity.

Rased Mehedi: Journalist, Editor Views Bangladesh.