Let India-Bangladesh ties be based on justice, not radical beliefs

Chief Adviser Dr. Muhammad Yunus on Wednesday (December 4) evening held a meeting at the Foreign Service Academy with political leaders from various parties. Among the attendees were political leaders and legal adviser Professor Asif Nazrul, who gave speeches on the topics discussed during the meeting. From their statements, it was evident that all the participants had reached a consensus on the importance of safeguarding Bangladesh's sovereignty, existence, independence, and dignity.

The meeting also made a commitment to stand united against India's misinformation and provocations against the country. They proposed organizing gatherings, political or security councils in the future, should further provocations arise, to reinforce their promised unity. Despite differences in views and approaches, the participants of the meeting took an oath to maintain solidarity on the issue of the country's existence. The next day, the Chief Adviser also held a meeting with Islamist parties on the same issue.

"The country is going through a difficult time"—this statement was made by Chief Adviser Professor Dr. Muhammad Yunus. Just two days before assuming office, he had said in an interview with the Indian channel NDTV, "If you destabilize Bangladesh, the impact of that instability will spread like wildfire to Myanmar, the Seven Sisters, and West Bengal." Such a strong statement against India had not been made by any Prime Minister or potential adviser before. He was perhaps the first to express the desire to build a relationship of equality with India. Interim government adviser Mahfuz Alam stated, "After 1971, we had failed as a state; but not this time." BNP leader Ruhul Kabir Rizvi, speaking from outside of power, remarked, "If India continues its aggressive stance against Bangladesh, we too will demand Bengal, Bihar, and Odisha."

After the people's uprising in Bangladesh, concerns and tensions regarding the Seven Sisters have risen. During the severe floods in Feni, students chanted slogans calling for these seven states to be shaken. Allegations have been made that during the BNP-Jamaat alliance government, the 10 truckloads of weapons were brought in for the armed groups in these seven states. India has further claimed that Pakistan's ISI, with the cooperation of the Bangladesh government, provided training to the armed groups from the seven states on Bangladeshi soil. However, no such accusations have been made against the Awami League government. This is because, under the Awami League government, the leader of Assam’s armed groups, Anup Chetia, was arrested and handed over to India. India's concern is that if the Awami League is not in power, the armed groups from the seven states will reorganize.

Several Indian YouTube channels are extensively promoting Bangladesh’s people’s uprising, communal conflicts, and various post-uprising events. While there has been anger in Bangladesh due to the exaggerations in Indian media, the explosion of this discontent occurred when Mamata Banerjee proposed sending peacekeeping missions. Mamata, who had previously appeased Indian Muslims, now realizes that she can no longer maintain this stance while ignoring Hinduism and contending with the BJP. Thus, she proposed sending peacekeeping forces to appease the aggressive Hindu elements in West Bengal. In response, Bangladesh's Home Adviser suggested that such peacekeeping forces should be deployed in Mamata's state. Hatred between the two countries is being cultivated even over flags. After the arrest of the spokesperson of the Joint Hindu Jagaran Jote, Chinmoy Krishna Das, an attack occurred on Bangladesh's Assistant High Commission in Agartala, India, where the building was vandalized, and the flag was torn down. Similarly, at BUET in Bangladesh, an Indian flag was used as a mat to wipe shoes.

The relationship between India and Bangladesh has been turbulent in recent months. The Awami League, seeking to distance itself from a subservient foreign policy, aims to show India through a united people's protest that Bangladesh is no longer a weak state. BNP, which has significant chances of coming to power, has also started visible actions to boycott India. Ruhul Kabir Rizvi of BNP, who previously burned Indian shawls, has now burned his wife's Indian saree; however, he is not burning imported Indian goods such as rice, lentils, onions, garlic, spices, cotton, and thread. Criticism of the Awami League government's subservient policies regarding border killings and fair water sharing has again intensified. Relations with Pakistan are deepening, with Pakistani ships full of goods arriving at Chittagong port. Efforts are underway to find alternative sources for Indian goods. It seems that the nation is ready to make any sacrifice in the bloodshed-driven spirit of ousting the Awami League government.

The interim government’s strategy of confronting India together might come with both advantages and disadvantages. If Bangladesh boycotts India, the prices of goods will likely increase, as Indian products are relatively cheaper, and their transportation costs are lower. Relying on other countries for essential perishable goods, such as vegetables and fruits, may be risky. If imports from India are cut off, the garment industry could face problems with cotton and yarn, as sourcing from countries like Pakistan, Uzbekistan, China, and Egypt would come at higher prices, making garment exports harder to compete in the global market. The absence of Indian vehicles like microbuses, trucks, and CNGs, along with their spare parts, could create a void in the transportation system. If low-cost treatment for complex diseases in India is halted, patients would have to be sent to Thailand or Singapore. Without Indian drugs for treating incurable diseases like cancer, Bangladesh would need to import medicines at higher prices from other countries. The unrealistic fantasy of Bangladesh becoming self-sufficient by producing everything is not a wise approach.

In Bangladesh, countries that do not have embassies will now require travel to Pakistan, Thailand, or Singapore to obtain visas instead of India. With the cessation of legal business, illegal activities such as smuggling will increase. As smuggling grows, Indian border guards may react more aggressively, leading to higher casualties among Bangladeshis. Regarding water resources, no matter the state of relations between the two countries, during the monsoon season, floods caused by Indian water will inevitably affect Bangladesh. Bangladesh has not yet received its fair share of water from the 54 common rivers, mainly due to the submissive foreign policy of the Awami League government. However, if relations deteriorate, India might reduce the water flow even further during the summer.

In such a situation, Bangladesh could either apply pressure directly or use influential allied nations to push India for its rightful share of water, or it could approach the United Nations for intervention. During Ziaur Rahman’s era, the Farakka issue was raised in the UN, but after discussions, it was removed from the agenda after a mutual resolution was suggested.

If Bangladesh were to sever ties with India, its economic loss would be far smaller compared to India’s potential financial setback. India exports between $10–14 billion annually to Bangladesh, whereas Bangladesh’s exports to India are only around $1–2 billion, which is just 2.5 per cent of India’s total exports. Moreover, many Indian businesses are established in Bangladesh to meet its demand. Every year, 2–2.2 million Bangladeshis travel to India, generating at least $20–25 billion annually from tourism and medical services.

If trade and business relations between the two countries deteriorate, India could face significant difficulties in maintaining smooth communication and timely delivery of goods, especially to West Bengal and the Seven Sister States in India’s Northeast. According to Bangladesh Police, as of 2023, there were 107,167 Indian nationals in Bangladesh, including 10,485 on business and investment visas, 14,399 working, 6,827 studying, and 75,456 on tourist visas. These individuals also contribute significantly to India’s remittance inflows from Bangladesh.

If rivalry and stubbornness increase, India might disregard the benefits it has previously enjoyed, similar to Pakistan's approach. In response to India's nuclear bomb, Pakistan developed its own nuclear capabilities. However, Pakistan did not have the financial resources to maintain its nuclear program. Driven by resolve, Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto had once declared, "If needed, I will eat grass, but I will make a nuclear bomb."

From the strength shown by Bangladesh's interim government and various political parties, it seems clear that Bangladesh will not accept India's hegemonic behavior at any cost. The Awami League, by following a subservient foreign policy, has only given in to India, but now Bangladesh intends to stand tall, asserting its rights. All political groups, except the Awami League and its allies, are now united against India. It is hoped that, under the leadership of Dr. Muhammad Yunus, Bangladesh will rise to the status of an equal and respected state in the ongoing tension with India.

No matter how much tension rises, India will not want to lose access to Bangladesh's vast market. This is also echoed by Bangladesh's finance advisor, who stated, "Regardless of India's political stance, they will not sacrifice the interests of their businesspeople." Amidst this tension, on December 9, there were discussions at the foreign secretary level between Bangladesh and India. Furthermore, the Indian central government has yet to make any negative comments about the interim government or Bangladesh. Some speculate that this political maneuver aims to prevent the Awami League's revival and restore the image of the interim government and BNP. The public sentiment is clear: "If possible, hold firm; if not, please stop."

Regardless of how the situation is analyzed, the smile seen on Dr. Yunus's face after meetings with political parties should remain unchanged.

Zeauddin Ahmed: Former Executive Director of Bangladesh Bank.