Macron – The Ambivalent Kingmaker in High Stakes French Political Game!

The National Rally (RN) was on the brink of power, but the second round of parliamentary elections shifted the balance. If the RN had won a majority in the second round of the National Assembly election, Macron might have had to share power with the first far-right government since the Vichy France regime of World War II. The decisions in the French general election determine the direction of France's governance and resonate deeply within the broader European and global contexts. However, the results in the second round left France facing the stunning prospect of a hung parliament, which threatened political paralysis in a pillar of the European Union and Olympic host country.

For context, let's do a short recap.
It all started when the French far-right succeeded in the European Parliament elections. The RN secured more seats and votes than any other French party. This substantial victory had tremendous and profound implications for the French political situation. However, the results had little impact, as European elections are second-order polls that usually witness lower voter turnout and are considered less impactful on national policy directly.

However, the results were significant enough to prompt President Emmanuel Macron to make a sudden and unexpected decision: to not wait for a more opportune situation and call for snap parliamentary elections on June 30, 2024. This decision, made without consulting key advisors like Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, was seen as reckless.

Now, as the results stand, the discussion of whether Macron's gamble paid off or not can go either way. Macron's gamble can be deemed a success because the far-right's attempt at power has been bottlenecked. On the other hand, given the scores of seats Macron's party lost, the gamble should be considered a failure.

When writing this piece, French politics was stuck in parliamentary limbo. The left-wing coalition's New Popular Front has the most seats in the National Assembly but is insufficient to form a government. Next in line is Macron's centrist coalition, which lost several seats. Finally, in third place is the RN, which was expected to lead by pollsters and pundits alike.

The NFP (left-wing coalition) won 182 seats in the National Assembly, making it the largest group in the 577-seat parliament. Macron's centrist Ensemble alliance, which became a distant third in the first round, recovered strongly, winning 163 seats. Despite leading the first round, RN and its allies won 143 seats.

The coalition has the most seats but is still short of the 289 seats needed for an absolute majority. Now, France has a hung parliament. The situation now mainly calls for the principle that mainstream parties must unite to prevent the extreme right from coming to power.

So, what happened? Or, what has transpired in French politics over the years to cause such significant changes and transitions in public opinion and the political prowess of the far-right?

The decline of centrist parties, like Macron's, has long been underway. In many recent elections, a shift in voter preferences away from traditional political parties was noticeable in the French political landscape. Les Republicains (LR), the inheritor of Charles de Gaulle's party, represents the conventional right and is on the verge of extinction. It struggled to attract support, only securing 6.57% in the first round.

The rise of the far right in France has technically been triggered and coaxed by Macron's administration, facilitating the growth of far-right ideologies. Macron himself is criticized for normalizing far-right rhetoric, a strategy he reportedly adopted since his election in 2017. His appointment of Gerald Darmanin as Interior Minister was seen as an overture to far-right constituents, especially because Darmanin has a history of contentious statements against Muslims. Macron's overture turned to a fundamental shift toward far-right ideologies in 2021 with the passage of the separatism bill, signaling a significant political change. The anti-Muslim rhetoric, without any deviations, extends to the whole of the Islamic community in France and across the globe, with Middle Eastern countries and Turkey becoming the main target of its narrative.

This rebranding has aimed to obscure the party's past. The party's main support base was the skinheads and neo-Nazis, so anti-semitic ideology was at the core of this far-right. Meyer Habib, a member of parliament from the rightist LR party, represents French citizens in Israel. He played a significant role in mainstreaming the far-right NR and weakening the leftist opposition. It is perceived that Macron had realized the political evolution in the country, causing the left and far right to become the two mainstream political movements. Macron had opted for the far-right narrative to sustain his political prowess. However, it has allowed the far-right to gain more ground in the political arena, disallowing Macron's political strategy to succeed as he had aspired. Macron's plan is still unclear, leading to much speculation. The loss in the European election may have been difficult for the French president, whose entire political identity is based on his support for the European project and his ability to counter the far right in France.

Marine Le Pen has also received international support, mainly from the Kremlin. Her Russian connection has been apparent, particularly since the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine War in 2022. It has tarnished her image, but not so much. In a 2017 interview, she openly supported Russia's actions in Crimea. It is also an open secret that she has received generous campaign loans from Moscow-linked banks. Moreover, there is support for the far-right from a few French business tycoons that are normalizing culture wars by funding racists on TV, social media, newspapers, and think tanks, transforming the boundaries of political discourse in France, and steering public discussions towards far-right ideologies.

The rise of the far-right is a threat to the 10% of the French population that constitutes the Muslim community. The Muslim clothing bans in France have already created massive restrictions and negativity for Muslims. If Macron adheres to his far-right overtures, it could bring the far-right to power. This means that Macron may negotiate a power-sharing deal with RN to maintain control and his far-right courtship, as France seems to be gradually levitating toward such ideologies. It will be harder for him to advance initiatives that he champions. These include Eurobonds for defense at the European Council, a European pillar of NATO at the Washington summit, or a "new security architecture" for Europe. France's partners and allies will also be aware of his reduced capacity to act legislatively and budget, strengthening the RN.

This would plunge the country into unchartered political territory for minority communities, especially Muslims, who are already constricted by shrinking space in French society. Consequently, this would mean more robust support for Israel and nothing good for the Palestinians.

Such a scenario could have other implications for foreign policy, too. The RN could push through nationalist ministers who might fight against Macron's key policy issues central to his legacy. He envisions enlarging the European Union to include Ukraine, Moldova, and the Western Balkans, but the RN forcefully rejects this idea. Regarding the Western Balkans, RN members advocate a revisionist approach to Kosovo and Bosnia because they term the Muslims as extremists and blame them for persecuting and pushing away Orthodox Christians in the region. The RN will also oppose Macron's attempts to structure European defense, making France a key security provider for Europeans, especially if there is a U.S. retrenchment from Europe. It is noteworthy that such an idea has been ongoing as an undertone since Trump's Presidency, a topic for further discussion but beyond the scope of this article. Coming back to the topic, Macron has revived the idea of "Europeanizing" French vital interests, which could trigger the use of French nuclear weapons. The RN is absolutely against this notion.

The far-right's arrival to power is not only a concern for French foreign policy and Muslims but also the academia and scientists in France. The absence of a clear winner presents uncertainty for scientists. Many believe the new government will not positively affect research and higher education. Moreover, if the far-right comes to or shares power, that would mean bad news for them. Scientists are concerned that there might be reductions in research budgets, limitations on immigration, and a rise in climate change skepticism. Science and education did not receive attention during the European and French parliamentary election campaigns, and financial limitations mean that research won't be a top priority. Far-right supports isolation, which could translate into visa restrictions for researchers and students and threats to academic freedom, among other issues, as opined in an op-ed in the newspaper Le Monde, signed by Nobel laureates and hundreds of other scientists.

If Macron opts to collaborate with the RN, things will worsen for many, although highly interesting for foreign policy pundits. However, Macron could take Sunday's election results as a vote of no confidence and then resign and trigger a snap presidential election. Macron's presidential term ends in 2027, and he has said that he does not intend to step down before that; however, evolving politics could force him to change his mind. The constitution grants Macron power over foreign policy and the armed forces. The leftist alliance's success means the weakening of Macron.

The left alliance cannot collaborate with the RN. Thus, the situation makes Macron a kingmaker or chaos creator, depending on his actions. But in any case, his political prowess has been weakened, which is a reality that he must compute in his following political equations—which is the key variable!

Author: Political and International Affairs Analyst.