New dynamic: Kamala Harris vs. Trump in presidential election

A recent shooting incident at a Donald Trump rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, indicates that the time has come to raise a strong voice against political violence in the United States. It is still unclear what the political beliefs of the shooter at Trump's rally were. The Secret Service has confirmed that Trump is safe, but at least one person attending the rally and the suspected attacker have been killed. This incident suggests that the frequency of untoward incidents is likely to increase during the election year. This is particularly concerning as election-related officials continue to fear ongoing threats and violence.

In late June, a survey by the University of Chicago revealed that support for violence against Trump has increased more than support for violence in favor of Trump. Among adult Americans, 10 percent or 26 million people have expressed support for violence against Trump. On the other hand, 6.9 percent or 18 million adults have supported violence in favor of Trump. In a January survey, more people had supported violence in favor of Trump. Among the 26 million adults in the United States who support violence to prevent Trump's second term as president, more than 30 percent own guns.

Additionally, 80 percent have access to internet organizational tools. Prior to this incident, Bob Pape, a professor at the University of Chicago and director of the Chicago Project on Security and Threats, stated in an interview that there is a greater inclination among people to commit violence against Trump rather than in his favor.

Therefore, we must be prepared for violence coming from the left in opposition to Trump's administration. This rise in support for political violence in American politics has occurred through extreme partisanship, the spread of misinformation on social media, and the violent rhetoric from Trump and his allies. These factors combined led thousands to storm Capitol Hill on January 6, 2021. A survey first published in The Guardian as part of a series on political violence and attitudes towards democracy reveals that support for violence on both sides stems from distrust in the establishment and conspiracy theories. Those who support violence on both sides are predominantly urban Americans. The survey also reveals that 58.6 percent of adult Americans believe that given the current situation in the United States, elections will not be able to solve the country's most fundamental political and social problems.

The immediate reactions from political leaders to the shooting at Trump's rally largely echo this sentiment. President Joe Biden said in a statement that there is no place for such violence in the United States and that we must unite as a nation to condemn this incident. Barack Obama also stated that there is no place for political violence in a democracy. However, in recent years, political violence in the United States has taken various forms, including the January 6 insurrection, harassment and violent threats against election officials, and efforts to target election officials.

In October 2020, just one month before the last presidential election, there was a conspiracy to kidnap Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer. And just one week after the election, an executive responsible for overseeing the election was forced to go into hiding because the losing side believed the election results had been stolen. They had published the executive's home address and offered a million-dollar bounty for him.

Those who subscribe to extreme political ideologies have greater opportunities to connect with like-minded individuals online. According to the National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism, most political violence in the United States is perpetrated by individuals not formally affiliated with any organization. This shooting incident at Trump's rally occurred just two days before the Republican National Convention, where Trump was formally nominated as the Republican candidate.

According to CBS News, law enforcement authorities have expressed significant concern that the Republican convention could be targeted by foreign terrorist groups, homegrown violent extremists, domestic extremist groups, so-called lone wolves, or shooters. The path for Vice President Kamala Harris's nomination as the Democratic candidate in the U.S. presidential election is gradually clearing. Recently, President Joe Biden has withdrawn from the election race and has proposed Vice President Kamala Harris as his successor.

Although Kamala Harris has received support from several top Democratic leaders, she has not yet been officially nominated by the party to run for the presidency. Even if she secures this nomination easily, the most challenging task still awaits her: defeating Republican candidate Donald Trump in the November election. Recent public opinion polls indicate that Kamala Harris is slightly trailing Republican candidate Donald Trump. This is similar to the position Joe Biden found himself in before making the historic decision to withdraw his candidacy. After withdrawing his candidacy, Joe Biden proposed Kamala Harris as his successor.

This move has infused new energy within the Democrats, especially considering the situation over the past three weeks where questions about Biden's fitness as a candidate, his ability to continue campaigning, and other concerns had created a challenging environment within the party. By proposing Kamala Harris's name, Biden has garnered support from nearly all the top potential contenders for the nomination. Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, considered one of the most influential figures in Democratic politics, is also among those supporting Harris. There is no doubt that the November election will be fiercely contested. Kamala Harris's primary challenge and opportunity lie in capitalizing on the animosity towards Donald Trump, attracting moderate voters in key swing states, and strengthening the Democratic base.

According to Kamala Harris's campaign, within 24 hours of Joe Biden announcing his withdrawal from the candidacy, the Vice President raised over $80 million in new donations, the most any candidate has raised in a single day in this election. Additionally, the Biden-Harris fund has inherited nearly $100 million, providing Harris with a strong financial foundation for her upcoming campaign.

Over the past few months, Trump has aggressively criticized his opponent Joe Biden, accusing him of being weak and easily confused. These attacks intensified following a debate at the end of June that highlighted Biden's performance. Within the party, there was increasing pressure on the 81-year-old Biden to withdraw his candidacy. Kamala Harris, who is 59, is expected to enter the campaign trail with full vigor, offering a robust response to Trump's age-related attacks on Biden. She can also leverage this issue against Trump, who, if elected, would be the oldest president at 78. If Harris can garner additional support from minority and young voters, which played a crucial role in Barack Obama's electoral success in 2008 and 2012, it could help her secure a strong footing against Trump in the swing states. Harris's background as a prosecutor will also strengthen her candidacy.

This aspect of her career did pose problems during the 2019 Democratic presidential nomination, leading to attacks from the left. Progressives criticized her stance on crime control, labeling Kamala as a police officer. However, the dynamics have shifted in this election. Her legal background could aid her in campaigning against Trump. Vice President Harris has spoken in support of abortion rights, which has proven to be a positive stance for Democrats in recent elections. In this scenario, Democrats might either unanimously choose another candidate or face internal discord. The last four weeks have shown how quickly fortunes can change in the race for the White House. Harris has punched her ticket to the biggest stage in American politics, and now she needs to demonstrate her ability to compete.

For the first time in history, Kamala Harris, an Indian-American woman, is running as a vice-presidential candidate in the United States. The Democratic presidential candidate Biden has announced Kamala Harris, a senator of mixed Black and Indian descent from California, as his running mate. If Biden wins the U.S. presidential election, Kamala will become the first Black woman to be appointed Vice President in America. Never before has a woman of color from either of the two major political parties been accepted for the position of President or Vice President. Now, the question remains whether Kamala Harris can win against Trump in the presidential election and how the competition will unfold.

Raihan Ahmed Tapadar: Researcher and columnist.