Pakistan Elections: Who, What, Why, How, and Where from Here!

Pakistan’s elections were anticipated by many analysts as one of the least credible in the country’s nearly 77-year history, owing to the military’s crackdown on Khan and his aides. It is labeled as a “selection” — not an election. Human rights monitors have condemned it as neither free nor fair. As voters cast ballots, the influence of Pakistan’s powerful military and the turbulent state of its politics were on full display. It is a vivid reflection of the generals’ ultimate hold on Pakistan’s troubled democracy.

However, the military is facing new challenges to its authority from a discontented public, making this an especially fraught moment in the nation’s history. It was a shock to the system. PTI party was barred from formally running nominees under its own name, but PTI-aligned independent candidates nonetheless massively outperformed expectations in national elections on February 8, leading in a plurality, but not a majority, of seats in the National Assembly. Independent candidates representing PTI, the party of imprisoned former Prime Minister Imran Khan, received support from young voters.

Youth have played a major role by coming out in massive numbers. They are 44 percent of the electorate, up to fifty-seven million. Women appeared to come out in droves to vote despite constraints. The youth also showed the effectiveness of social media in the campaign, especially when coping with official controls on traditional media. Another underscoring factor is the manner in which Pakistan can deal with its periphery. The demographic outburst through the polls underscores that Pakistan needs to address the disaffected youth of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan and bring them into the national conversation and carefully weigh their demands rather than resort to kinetic actions to quell debate and dissent. Outsourcing this issue to the military would not be a prudent choice anymore.

To quote Ammar Habib Khan is a nonresident senior fellow at the South Asia Center - Legacy parties i.e. Nawaz Sharif, and Bilawal Bhutto Zardari - underestimated the demographic change currently underway in Pakistan, with an increasing number of first-time voters who continue to challenge the status quo.

A weak coalition is set to emerge at the center. Any governing alliance will be clouded by its lack of popular legitimacy. This will have a direct impact on the decision-making ability of the next government on dealing with crucial economic and security challenges. It will have to navigate the competing pressures of managing an unstable economy beset by skyrocketing inflation through tough and unpopular decisions while keeping the governing coalition intact.

Pakistan's military has long been accused of interfering in, even rigging the nation's elections. Since Pakistan gained its independence from Britain in 1947, not one of its 24 prime ministers has ever completed a five-year term. The nation's political leaders have instead been derailed by assassination, military coups and being forced into exile. Amir Rana, director of the Islamabad-based Pakistan Institute of Peace Studies think-tank said the military would continue pulling the strings in the background, and that means there's unlikely to be much in the way of change, even if Pakistani voters demand it.

The Pakistan-Iran border has been a hotspot for cross-border militancy, with both countries suffering from attacks launched by militant groups operating in the border regions. The level of cooperation and joint security measures undertaken by Pakistan and Iran to combat these threats is influenced by the diplomatic and security policies of Pakistan’s government. An administration committed to enhancing security cooperation could lead to more effective control of militant activities.

Pakistan’s strategic position in South Asia, its role in regional security dynamics, particularly in relation to India, Afghanistan, and China, and its influence in Muslim-majority countries make its political stability and policy orientations crucial to regional and global affairs.

Pakistan’s relations with Iran are also influenced by its ties with other countries in the Middle East, particularly Arab states like Saudi Arabia, as well as its relationship with the United States. The new Pakistani government will need to navigate its close ties with the Gulf Arab states and the US, which have had strained relations with Iran, while also engaging constructively with Tehran. This balancing act is crucial for Pakistan’s broader foreign policy strategy and regional diplomacy.

The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and the broader strategic partnership between China and Pakistan are highly dependent on the political climate in Pakistan. The upcoming government’s stance on CPEC will be instrumental in determining the pace and scope of development projects that are vital for regional connectivity and economic growth. The depth of the strategic partnership between China and Pakistan could be influenced by the election outcome, affecting defense cooperation, technology transfer, and investment. This issue is among the key catalysts of how Pakistan’s relations evolve with India.

The nature of the elected government in Pakistan could either worsen tensions or open avenues for dialogue and peace negotiations, depending on its stance towards India and its willingness to engage in diplomatic efforts. While Modi’s BJP continues to use Pakistan as a fueling catalyst for the populist leader’s strongman approach based on anti-Muslim rhetoric, the new government of Pakistan would need to tread carefully in engaging with its most important neighbor. For the time being, it seems that the military and even the US are comfortable with having Nawaz Sharif in the helm as he would move with a softer and more stabilizing approach. However, whether Sharif will come to power, and if he does, whether it will be with a strong coalition government, all these crucial questions for Pakistan’s approach to its neighbors.

Pakistan’s role as a mediator and its policies towards the Afghan Taliban will affect peace and stability in the region. A government in Islamabad looking to foster stability in Afghanistan could work towards ensuring that Afghan soil is not used for anti-Pakistan activities. Relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan have become increasingly worrying due to security concerns. Pakistan has accused the Taliban-led government in Afghanistan of not doing enough to prevent attacks from armed groups, including the Islamic State in Khorasan Province (ISKP or ISIS-K) and the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), across the porous border between the two countries. The relationship has also been impacted by Pakistan’s decision to expel more than 1.5 million allegedly undocumented Afghan refugees and migrants, a move that has triggered tensions with Kabul. The Afghan government has criticized the expulsions as “unilateral” and “humiliating,” highlighting humanitarian concerns and potential negative effects on bilateral relations. With ongoing instability in Afghanistan, Pakistan’s approach to managing its border and handling the refugee situation will impact regional security and humanitarian concerns.

The Biden administration has adopted a two-track approach towards Pakistan, characterized by a distinct division of labor: robust engagement through the State Department, ongoing military, and defense ties, but notably, a lack of direct engagement from the White House itself. This approach marks a departure from previous US administrations, where engagement with Pakistan often included direct White House involvement with Pakistani leaders. Pakistan and US relations are at a critical juncture, reflecting a complex interplay of historical ties, recent geopolitical shifts, and evolving priorities on both sides.

The outcome of the vote is crucial, not only for Pakistan’s internal governance but also for its position on the regional and international stage. As the country stands on the edge, the impact of these elections on Pakistan’s future, particularly its democratic processes and civilian-military balance, remains to be seen.

Author: Political and International Affairs Analyst