Pakistan's nuclear capacity could bring about catastrophic consequences

Pakistan is a large Muslim country, is strategically located, and has nuclear weapons. Experts debate whether these weapons' safety is under reasonable control. Some people are worried that by 2030, Pakistan might have the third-largest number of nuclear weapons in the world. This makes some Western countries, especially the United States, worried. There are also allegations that some people in Pakistan might support extremist groups. Some of these groups have even said they want to use nuclear weapons if they get them. People wonder if these groups think it is okay to use nuclear weapons based on their religious beliefs.

Pakistan decided to develop nuclear weapons mainly because of its war in 1971, resulting in East Pakistan liberating and becoming Bangladesh and also India conducting its first nuclear test in 1974. Faced with a growing imbalance in conventional weapons compared to India, Pakistan believed that having nuclear weapons would help prevent major conflicts in the future and maintain stability. Since then, Pakistan has been working on ways to deal with what it sees as threatening actions by India.

India publicly enunciated its nuclear strategy in 2003, but Pakistan kept it more implicit. Instead, Pakistan occasionally gave some information about its nuclear policy through official statements. This secrecy has given Pakistan more freedom to change its policy as India has developed its regular and nuclear military capabilities.

A mock-up of the Little Boy atomic weapon dropped on Hiroshima, Japan in August 1945. Photo: Collected

Pakistan has chosen not to commit to a "no-first-use" policy for nuclear weapons. They have not ruled out the possibility of using nuclear weapons first. At the same time, India has a policy of not using nuclear weapons first. Pakistan believes that having the option to use nuclear weapons first is necessary to protect itself from potential attacks, both conventional and nuclear, from India. This is especially important because India's commitment to not using nuclear weapons first has seemingly weakened in recent years, mainly given the political extremism that has occurred in India.

Pakistan has offered to make a deal with India to limit their nuclear weapons, but India has not agreed to it. Pakistan says its nuclear weapons are only for defense, mainly against India. At the same time, India's policy is more flexible and does not single out specific enemies. Since 2001-2002, India has been pressuring Pakistan in the international forums by accusing them of supporting terrorism and using that as a reason to avoid talking directly to them. Meanwhile, Pakistan has been trying to get other countries to support its claims that India is sponsoring terrorism and fascism.

Having devastating weapons puts a lot of pressure on a country and its government. The first thing it needs is to have a stable government and strong organizations. Countries that are not politically stable can be unpredictable and unreliable. Those with strong religious influences are a matter of greater concern for the West. If Pakistan is peaceful and gets along with everyone, it's not a problem. The Pakistani military, a strong organization, has helped keep things stable, as it is in control of Pakistan's nuclear weapons. However, it would be better if Pakistan had a stable government and significant state organizations in the long term, with the military outlook aligned with the country's political ideology. For now, the military is the designer of the country’s political ideology, and thus, the US is more prone to support the military as the dominant power structure within Pakistan.

Pakistani missiles on display at the Ideas 2008 Defense Exhibition in Karachi, Pakistan. Photo: Collected

Pakistan has developed its nuclear weapons capabilities independently, utilizing indigenous uranium and operating outside the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty due to its weapons program. This has limited Pakistan's access to nuclear plants or materials trade, hindering its progress in civil nuclear energy development.

Two years after engaging in their most severe cross-border clashes in decades, India and Pakistan have forged a ceasefire, resulting in significant confrontations being avoided. Meanwhile, the threat of a broader regional escalation emanates from the effects of the worsening genocide in Gaza. Israel is believed to have nuclear weapons, though it officially neither confirms nor denies it. Iran, while possessing an advanced nuclear program, is not believed to have developed any nuclear arms and has explicitly rejected any suggestions that it intended to produce any. Still, it maintains the region's largest and most sophisticated missile arsenal.

Pakistan doesn't call for Israel's destruction like Iran does but is a vocal and robust critique of Israel in all forums. However, in some ways, Islamabad poses a greater concern for Israel than Tehran. There has been a severe and necessary question in recent months about what concrete actions countries, especially those in the Muslim world, can take to help stop Israel's aggressive attack on the Palestinians. Many people criticize Muslim leaders for not taking action beyond just making statements, and this criticism is evident throughout the Islamic world.

Ever since the U.S. left Afghanistan, there have been some significant changes in how countries in Asia relate to each other. Pakistan is getting closer to China, while India is getting closer to the United States. Both India and the United States are worried about China. The U.S. is worried that terrorists might take Pakistan's nuclear weapons or that a true democracy prevails in the country. If this was happening, the U.S. might have to step in and stop it. Then Pakistan might ask China for help, which could lead to a dire situation between the U.S. and China. This is a big deal because no one wants a direct and possibly deadly fight between these powerful countries. Pakistan’s politics have not allowed the situation to come to that point, but inclinations of such have occurred now and then.

Pakistan began developing nuclear devices under the leadership of Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, promising to design the device by 1976-77 to ward off foreign threats. Photo: Collected

Pakistan, bordering Afghanistan, is considered an unusual ally of the U.S. The country is governed by ineffective politicians and trained military leaders who strive to address the risks of domestic terrorism while trying to contain and control the country's political institutions. If not properly managed, this situation could pose a significant threat. Although challenges persist, Pakistan has effective security mechanisms for its nuclear materials. It is developing a culture that prioritizes nuclear security. This effort deserves recognition.

Pakistan's generals have consistently supported imperial dominance. The generals and their civilian allies in the Sharif and Bhutto-Zardari clans can use the country's armed forces to align with world powers, especially the U.S. When individuals like Imran Khan try to change Pakistan's role in the global order, certain powers become uneasy, and work to maintain the status quo. As a result, it is not surprising that Imran Khan faced challenges to his leadership and political career.

The U.S. and Pakistan have a long history of being close allies. Pakistan has been considered one of the U.S.'s strongest allies in Asia. While Pakistan has strong economic and strategic ties with China, it maintains good relations with the U.S. and its allies. If the U.S. overlooks Pakistan as a potential economic partner, it could push Pakistan further into China's influence. Strengthening relations between the U.S. and Pakistan could prevent Pakistan from becoming too dependent on China and protect U.S. interests in South Asia. Pakistan's National Security Policy and leadership statements have consistently emphasized its neutrality in the competition between major world powers and its desire to maintain positive relationships with the U.S. and China. While Pakistan may not have a clear plan for this, the U.S. government's willingness to engage will determine the extent and nature of future interactions.

An expert opinion piece in the BBC in 2013 insinuated that Saudi Arabia had invested in Pakistan's nuclear program, hoping that it could acquire a nuclear weapon. In recent months, UAE and Iran have also been known to woo Pakistan for greater ties. Some likely alarmist views have opined that these countries are also wooing Pakistan to acquire nuclear weapons quickly, given the uncertainty prevailing in the Middle Eastern region. Premiers of both UAE and Iran had visited Pakistan earlier this year. As UAE is transforming into the U.S.'' newest bosom friend, Iran's overtures towards Pakistan were certainly concerning for the U.S. Two months after Raisi visited Pakistan, skirmishes between Pakistan and Iran were seen across their common borders. Coincidence? Maybe not!

India and Pakistan see each other as a significant security threat. Pakistan also sees India as having ambitions to be a superpower. It continues to be regarded as the big brother in South Asia. At the same time, the Muslim world at large is increasingly aggrieved with the West's unjust and invasive policies based on anti-Islamic views and beliefs. Add to it the concerns of an all-out regional conflict in the Middle East. A nuclear conflagration in the region would have devastating consequences. Pakistan is at the heart of it, either as a victim or a culprit.

Simon Mohsin: Political and International Affairs Analyst.