Reasons for rise of far-right forces in France

Before and after the parliamentary elections, President Macron faced unprecedented questions about his leadership from both conservative loyalists and centrist rebels. Candidates worried about their chances in the election openly distanced themselves from him. Meanwhile, influential leaders in the government, like Prime Minister Attal, distanced themselves from Macron's decision to call for early elections. The leftist coalition, New Popular Front (NFP), won the most seats in the French national parliamentary election, successfully blocking a landslide victory by the far-right National Rally (RN). The coalition includes the Socialists, Greens, Communists, and Jean-Luc Mélenchon's France Unbowed party, which were previously deeply divided. Uniting these groups into a coalition was not easy, making their victory a groundbreaking event.

Since forming the NFP coalition last month, they faced intense criticism from both the centrist elite and the far-right. Both sides attacked the leftist coalition as a future threat to the French Republic. The media environment was also extremely hostile towards the NFP, with French media disparagingly suggesting that the far-right and far-left were politically very close. Marine Le Pen and National Rally President Jordan Bardella tried to present their party as the new center-right during last month’s election campaign, depicting the NFP as the real extremists. They labeled the leftist coalition, especially Jean-Luc Mélenchon, as anti-Semitic due to their support for Palestine. This is despite the fact that the National Rally was founded by a convicted criminal who was a Holocaust denier. The effort to whitewash RN’s racist legacy and portray the NFP as anti-Semitic was so intense that after the first round of elections on June 30, the media began to suggest that a leftist victory would be harmful to France; that it was better for a far-right party to win than for the leftists to come to power.

In recent years, centrist President Emmanuel Macron had adopted several right-leaning authoritarian policies, blurring the lines between centrism and right-wing politics. This paved the way for the rehabilitation of the National Rally as a mainstream party in parliament. It began to seem that the far-right party was on the verge of taking control of the French parliament. Despite clear predictions of RN’s victory in the polls, French voters rejected Le Pen’s far-right RN in the recent election. The NFP coalition won 182 seats, placing first. Macron’s centrist and neoliberal coalition came in second with 163 seats. Le Pen and Bardella’s RN won only 143 seats, leaving them with no realistic path to form a government.

Mélenchon and his new allies’ victory across France is undoubtedly a memorable one. They demonstrated that the left, with their uncompromising demands for meaningful reforms and social justice, has won. They showed that the leftist agenda acted as an antidote to the rise of the far-right, which had been facilitated by the policies of the centrists. The RN has secured 143 seats in parliament, but the leftist coalition’s seat count is insufficient to form a government on their own. This means that political instability is likely to ensue in France in the near future. The RN will certainly have a strong voice in parliament. There is every reason to believe that RN will fight even more vigorously in future elections. Despite all this, the leftist coalition now stands before a significant and previously lost opportunity. French voters have made it clear that they are tired of Macron’s centrist and ideologically unclear governance. Macron has also failed to set the economy on the right path. His authoritarian policies have normalized the far-right, causing many French voters to lean towards RN. Now, voters have also rejected RN, giving the leftist coalition a real chance to implement their agenda. They have the opportunity to create a new path for France based on social justice, care for the environment, and a foreign policy that nurtures the values and perspectives of the French people.

The NFP coalition’s promises include increasing the minimum wage, reducing the retirement age from 64 to 60, building 1 million affordable homes within five years, and stabilizing prices for essential goods such as food, fuel, and gas. The coalition has promised that all education expenses for children will be borne by the state, financed by higher taxes on the wealthy. Implementing these ambitious agendas can restore balance to France’s political system. They can truly emerge as a counterforce against the far-right. They can show the path to building a leftist future in a country that urgently needs to break away from Macron’s neoliberalism.

Attal, who was appointed at the beginning of the year, worked tirelessly for the party's campaign, traveling extensively to garner support for the candidates. He faced the media to defend Macron's camp. However, on election night, Attal openly opposed Macron’s unexpected decision to dissolve parliament. He said, "I did not like the decision to dissolve parliament; but I refused to stay silent." Prime Minister Attal's combative attitude made him popular among other dissenting lawmakers in the party. The NFP coalition includes the French Communist Party, France Unbowed, Greens, and the Socialist Party. The leaders of these parties have held their first round of discussions on what their upcoming tasks will be. France Unbowed leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon has said that the new prime minister should be chosen from the NFP coalition. However, the coalition has no single leader, and there are differences of opinion among the coalition parties about who would be the best candidate for prime minister.

Former French Prime Minister Édouard Philippe and several centrist leaders have expressed their readiness to work on an agreement to establish a stable government. Outgoing Prime Minister Gabriel Attal has stated that he will submit his resignation, although it is uncertain if President Macron will accept it immediately, considering the various tasks related to forming a new government. Gabriel Attal has said that he will serve in a caretaker role, affirming, "As long as needed, I will of course continue to fulfill my duties. There is no way to avoid this because the Olympic Games are approaching, and it is very important for our country."

Even if there is no post-election coalition agreement to form a government, according to the French Constitution, Macron cannot organize new parliamentary elections within 12 months. The constitution states that the decision of who will be asked to form a government will be made by the President, which in this case is Macron. However, whoever he chooses will have to face a confidence vote in the National Assembly. This vote could take place on July 18. This means Macron will need to propose a name acceptable to the majority of legislators. Macron will want the Socialists and Greens to break away from the leftist coalition so that they can form a center-left coalition with France Unbowed left alone. However, there are no signs of fractures within the New Popular Front so far. Leftist supporters have been seen celebrating their substantial victory. Twenty-three-year-old designer Baptiste Forasti, who joined the celebrations, said, "We did not expect this. No opinion poll hinted at this. We are glad that the French people have once again succeeded in blocking the far-right." Nonetheless, Forasti also showed some anxiety, fearing that the far-right might gain more strength and win next time.

Forasti commented, "It will be difficult to work with a hung parliament. But it is at least better than having the far-right in the lead." Although the leftist coalition New Popular Front (NFP) won the French parliamentary elections, they did not achieve the necessary majority. In this situation, there are two paths open for the NFP in forming a government. The NFP could either work as a minority government with fewer seats, which would result in a hung parliament and necessitate relying on support from other parties to pass any legislation. Alternatively, if they do not want to form a government with fewer seats, they will need to include another party in their coalition. While forming coalition governments is common in European countries like Germany or Norway after parliamentary elections, this is not typically seen in France. Therefore, it can be said that the opportunity for creating a new path for France may have arrived.

Raihan Ahmed Tapadar: Researcher and columnist.