Record-breaking heat: A harbinger of perilous consequences?

Human-induced climate change and the El Niño phenomenon are progressively increasing the global temperature. El Niño exacerbates warmth over the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. The Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) of the European Union has reported that since the onset of record-keeping in 1850, 2023 marked the hottest year on earth due to the escalating temperatures attributed to climate change. Following the end of that year, January 2024 became the warmest January in history.

According to Bangladesh Meteorological Department data, January, typically the coolest month in the country, maintained relatively normal temperatures. However, from June to December of the previous year, temperatures in the country were consistently over 1 degree Celsius higher than usual. Meanwhile, BBC reports that since June 2023, each consecutive month has set records for being the hottest globally.

Samantha Burgess, deputy director of C3S, told Reuters that "Following the record warm January, we are experiencing temperatures consistently 1.5 degrees Celsius warmer than pre-industrial times for twelve consecutive months."

Scientists emphasize the urgent need to mitigate global temperature rise by swiftly reducing greenhouse gas emissions. American scientists warn that the likelihood of 2024 being even warmer than preceding years remains high.

The greatest cause of global temperature rise is the increased presence of various greenhouse gases, including carbon dioxide and methane, in the atmosphere. These gases primarily trap solar heat in the Earth's environment and atmosphere. The Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) has revealed that in 2023, there was a record amount of carbon emissions worldwide. Europe's main climate research center further stated that the average daily temperature in 2023 exceeded that of previous years before the industrial era by over 1 degree Celsius, reaching over 2 degrees Celsius higher for the first time in November.

Additionally, after the signing of the Paris Agreement in 2015 by various member states of the United Nations, the goal was set to limit global warming to well below 1.5 degrees Celsius. However, according to C3S, the temperature in 2023 surpassed this target by a significant margin. The global average temperature increase since the pre-industrial era reached 1.7 degrees Celsius. Despite the Paris Agreement's efforts, global temperatures continue to rise rapidly, making it increasingly challenging to meet the set targets.

The uncontrolled increase in global warming cannot be curbed without stringent control measures for carbon emissions. While various countries have initiated and undertaken efforts to control carbon emissions, the current pace of action is insufficient to halt the relentless rise in global temperatures. Ensuring the sustainability of the world's climate requires unity among nations and an expansion of efforts. In this regard, both political action and a shift in mindset are essential for effective change.

Moreover, although Bangladesh is known as a naturally warm country, abnormal temperature behavior in recent years has tarnished that reputation. The highest recorded temperature in the Bengal region was documented in 1960 at 42.3 degrees Celsius. After independence, on May 30, 1972, Rajshahi recorded a temperature of 46.2 degrees Celsius. In 1995, the temperature reached 43 degrees Celsius. On April 26, 2009, Jashore set a record for the highest temperature in the past 14 years at 42.2 degrees Celsius. While superficially it may seem that temperatures are decreasing, the average highest temperature has increased significantly. According to research by the World Wildlife Fund, the average temperature in Dhaka city alone has increased by 1 degree Celsius from 1972 to January 2024. In the last 50 years, the rate of temperature increase in the country has been 0.5 percent. Without any intervention, Bangladesh's average temperature is projected to increase by 1.4 degrees Celsius by 2050 and by 2.4 degrees Celsius by 2100. The phenomenon of rising temperatures will exacerbate at an alarming rate because increased temperatures will lead to more evaporation of water, increasing the amount of water vapor in the air. Although natural temperatures may not rise, perceived temperatures will increase. Already, there has been a gradual increase in humidity in Bangladesh. By 2030, annual average rainfall is expected to increase by 10-15 percent, and by 2075, it is predicted to rise by almost 27 percent. Consequently, humidity levels will soar. This humidity will intensify the perceived heat.

The panel on climate change adaptation, under the auspices of the United Nations Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change, has stated in a prepared report that several coastal countries, including Bangladesh, will face severe freshwater crises in the coming years due to climate change. The impact of climate change has already exacerbated various natural disasters in Bangladesh, including cyclones, salinity intrusion, floods, river erosion, and landslides. While major natural disasters occurred every 15 or 20 years in the past, currently, significant disasters are occurring consecutively every two to three years. According to the British research institute Maplecroft's list, Bangladesh is ranked highest among 15 countries at risk due to natural disasters. If the trend continues unchecked, not only Bangladesh but the entire world, which is engaged in competitive carbon emissions reduction efforts, will face severe natural calamities. Experts have no doubt that our planet Earth will be vulnerable to catastrophic natural disasters.