State of South Asian geopolitics in global competition

The geopolitical landscape in South Asia is shaped by the strategic rivalries and alliances among global and regional powers. China’s growing influence in the region, through economic and political ties with countries like Pakistan, Bangladesh, Myanmar, and Sri Lanka, is being countered by the United States, which seeks to minimize Beijing’s presence and control. At the heart of this complex geopolitical web is Bangladesh, a country with immense strategic value due to its geographical location and growing population. The political uncertainty in Bangladesh, including the fall of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s government due to external pressures from the US, adds another layer of complexity to the region's evolving dynamics.

The US-China Rivalry in Bangladesh

Bangladesh’s location between India, China, and Myanmar, as well as its access to the Bay of Bengal, makes it a critical player in South Asian geopolitics. Bangladesh has a large population and is geographically positioned at the center of several regional initiatives, making it a significant prize for powers like China and the United States.

China has been actively fueling relationships with key South Asian countries such as Pakistan, Bangladesh, Myanmar, and Sri Lanka, aiming to solidify its influence in the region through economic and infrastructure investments. These investments are part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which seeks to create a network of trade routes and strategic hubs. Bangladesh, with its strategic ports such as Chittagong and Payra, is an essential part of China’s plans to expand its reach in the Indian Ocean, bypassing the vulnerable Strait of Malacca.

However, Bangladesh’s strategic position also makes it a focal point for the United States’ efforts to counter China’s growing influence. The Bay of Bengal, with its crucial sea routes and rich natural resources, is a key area for US interests. Washington is reportedly backing opposition groups in Myanmar and fueling ethnic tensions by supporting and financing eight ethnic groups in the country, in an attempt to destabilize the region and diminish China’s influence. The US sees Saint Martin’s Island, an island belonging to Bangladesh, as a potential base to supply arms and logistical support to Myanmar’s ethnic insurgents. This would allow the US to maintain a foothold in the region and challenge China’s growing dominance over the Bay of Bengal.

The Fall of Sheikh Hasina and the Uncertainty of Bangladesh’s Political Future
Bangladesh has long been under the rule of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, whose government has been criticized for its autocratic leadership, widespread corruption, and economic mismanagement. Under her regime, Bangladesh’s foreign currency reserves have dwindled, partially due to rampant money laundering by those in her inner circle. This corruption has weakened the country’s economy, making it vulnerable to external pressures. The economic instability, combined with Hasina's close ties to China, has made her government the target of international criticism, particularly from the United States.

The potential fall of Sheikh Hasina, possibly influenced by US efforts to support opposition forces and promote democratic reforms, brings uncertainty to the region. A new interim-government in Bangladesh could be less authoritarian and more focused on reducing corruption, but it could also lack the experience necessary to navigate the country's complex geopolitical position. While this transition may bring the hope of political reforms, it also opens the door to increased competition between China and the US for influence over Bangladesh’s future.

A change in government might lead to a realignment of Bangladesh’s foreign policy, which could either bring it closer to the US or solidify its ties with China. This uncertainty creates potential opportunities for Bangladesh, especially if the new leadership can reduce corruption and make the country more attractive for foreign investment. However, it also raises the risk of instability, which could embolden China to deepen its ties with a more pliable administration.

India’s Role and Strategic Concerns
India, as a regional power, has a significant stake in Bangladesh’s future. Bangladesh is essential for India’s connectivity, particularly for goods traveling between the northeastern states and the rest of the country. The opening of the Maitri Setu (Friendship Bridge) over the Feni River in 2021 is an example of how India is working to enhance its transportation links through Bangladesh. The bridge significantly reduces the travel time for goods moving from Agartala, the capital of Tripura, to Kolkata, allowing India to improve its economic integration with Bangladesh and its northeastern states.

However, India’s main strategic vulnerability lies in the Siliguri Corridor, commonly referred to as the “Chicken’s Neck.” This narrow, 20-kilometer-wide strip of land connects India’s northeastern states to the rest of the country, and it is highly susceptible to Chinese advances. China has already captured around 60 kilometers of Indian land in Arunachal Pradesh, and any further incursions could block the Chicken’s Neck, cutting off India’s connection to its northeastern states. If China were to expand its influence in Bangladesh and Nepal, it could further isolate India’s northeastern region, threatening the country’s territorial integrity.

China’s expanding footprint in South Asia presents a direct challenge to India’s influence in the region. Bangladesh’s political transition, combined with its growing ties to China, could complicate India’s strategic plans. While India has maintained relatively strong relations with Bangladesh, a new government could potentially shift its focus towards deeper cooperation with China. This would force India to re-evaluate its regional strategy and potentially strengthen its own ties with Bangladesh to counterbalance China’s influence.

The Future of South Asian Geopolitics
The future of South Asia’s geopolitical landscape remains uncertain, particularly in light of the potential political transition in Bangladesh. Sheikh Hasina’s authoritarian rule and economic mismanagement have left the country vulnerable, but a new government could open the door to political reforms and greater transparency. However, the rivalry between China and the US over Bangladesh’s strategic position will continue to shape the country’s future.

China will likely maintain its efforts to solidify its influence in Bangladesh, using economic incentives and infrastructure investments to ensure its strategic interests in the Bay of Bengal. The US, meanwhile, will intensify its diplomatic and military engagement with Bangladesh, seeking to build a government more aligned with Western interests. India, for its part, will continue to play a critical role, working to secure its northeastern region and ensure its connectivity through Bangladesh.

Bangladesh’s ability to navigate these complex regional dynamics will determine the stability of South Asia in the coming years. A politically stable Bangladesh, free from corruption and authoritarian rule, could become a key player in balancing the competing interests of China, the US, and India. However, if the political transition leads to instability or increased external interference, the region could see heightened tensions and further geopolitical competition.

Conclusion: Bangladesh at the Crossroads
Bangladesh stands at a pivotal point in its geopolitical trajectory. Sheikh Hasina’s autocratic leadership, marked by corruption and economic decline, has weakened the country, but the potential fall of her government opens the door to new possibilities. A new, less corrupt administration could restore stability, but it will also face the challenge of balancing the competing interests of China, the US, and India.

As the global powers vie for influence, Bangladesh’s role in South Asia is becoming increasingly important. Whether the country can maintain its independence and stability amidst this geopolitical rivalry will shape the future of the region for years to come.

Md. Fazlay Elahi Tushar: FDI Consultant And Senior Business Manager, China Shandong International Economic & Technical Cooperation Group Ltd.