Syria – The Renewed Geopolitical Playground

The History
The conflict in Syria began amid widespread dissatisfaction with President Bashar al-Assad's government, marked by high unemployment, corruption, and limited political freedom. Pro-democracy demonstrations started in March 2011 in Deraa, leading to a violent government crackdown and nationwide protests demanding Assad's resignation. As violence escalated, opposition groups formed, and the situation transformed into a civil war involving various rebel factions and foreign powers. Extremist organizations, including ISIS and al-Qaeda, became involved, heightening international concerns. The Kurdish population, seeking self-governance, contributed to the conflict's complexity. Right now, over 12 million people have fled their homes. Significant human suffering exists, with more than 16 million people needing humanitarian assistance. The conflict has led to soaring food prices, electricity blackouts, and difficulties accessing medical support. The need for emergency shelter supplies remains, as people will continue to be displaced by ongoing conflict between armed groups, and existing shelters need repair after years of use. The majority of Syrian refugees have stayed in the Middle East. Syria’s neighbors, Lebanon, Jordan, and Turkey, are hosting over 90%. Other families have fled to neighboring Iraq, Egypt, or North Africa. Some refugees have fled to European countries. At the height of the European migrant crisis in 2015, 1.3 million Syrians requested asylum, with Germany, Sweden, Hungary, Greece, Austria, the Netherlands, Belgium, Denmark, France, and Bulgaria receiving the most applications.

The Situation
The Assad regime has fallen in Syria. It’s a historic turning point in the 14-year-long civil war. The situation is fast-moving, and control is shifting between armed groups and opposition forces. Curfews are in place in many areas. The situation is volatile in northeast Syria. There is escalating violence between different armed groups and lots of crime. There is renewed hope for families who have been displaced to return home and reunite with friends and family. But there is also a lot of uncertainty. Hundreds of thousands are moving, but they don’t know what they will face or whether their homes are still standing. Millions of people are still entirely reliant on humanitarian aid. And for people left exposed without adequate shelter or the proper support, the harsh and unpredictable winter poses a significant risk to life. Civilians are caught in shifting power dynamics and territories, not knowing where will be safe for them and their families.

The Players
The conflict in Syria originated as an uprising against President Bashar al-Assad's government. Over time, various groups have joined the fighting, including the Free Syrian Army (FSA), Kurdish Rebel Fighters, the Islamic State, Jabhat Fath al-Sham, Hezbollah, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), leading to complex inter-group conflicts. International involvement has significantly influenced the Syrian conflict. Key supporters of the Syrian government include Russia, which began a major air campaign in 2015, and Iran, which has deployed troops and funded militias like Hezbollah. Initially, Western powers, including the US, UK, and France, backed moderate rebels but later shifted focus to non-lethal aid as jihadist groups rose. The US-led coalition conducted air strikes against ISIS and supported the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). Turkey has backed opposition groups while trying to contain Kurdish militias, and Saudi Arabia, which once armed rebels, is now discussing Syria's reintegration into the Arab League. Lastly, Israel has conducted air strikes against Iranian military activities in Syria.

HTS and Jolani
The leader of the Islamist militant group, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, is very much putting himself forward as the figurehead of a post-Assad future in Syria. Without his group's sudden, devastating advance on Aleppo and then into Hama and Homs from their power base in the northwestern province of Idlib, there is no doubt that the tumultuous events of the past week and a half would not have happened. Al-Jolani has sought to reshape the image of his organization, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), from a feared group linked to al-Qaeda into a pragmatic alternative to the Assad regime. HTS originated as Jabhat al-Nusra in 2011 and was affiliated with al-Qaeda, with its formation involving Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. Although HTS has attempted to distance itself from its past by promoting inclusiveness and rejecting violence, doubts remain about its complete break from al-Qaeda. The organization has faced allegations of human rights abuses and has been involved in conflicts with other groups. Syria's political future will depend on HTS's intentions, the actions of competing groups, and the influence of external powers, regardless of Assad's continued rule. The US has established direct communication with HTS, which remains classified as a terrorist organization. Turkey benefits from the current power dynamics in post-Assad Syria and has been a supporter of HTS's actions. A joint statement from the US, Turkey, EU, and Arab countries expresses support for the Syrian people during this critical time. However, ongoing US-Turkey disagreements over the Kurdish issue and Turkish-Arab competition may complicate diplomatic relations. The international community is closely monitoring HTS's actions in the reconstruction phase due to concerns about repeating the Taliban precedent in Afghanistan. Now that Assad is gone, the pressing question is whether these disparate groups can unite under a single leadership. Historical and ideological differences make this prospect challenging.

Isreal’s Game
Israel maintains that it has no interest in conflict with Syria yet continues to conduct airstrikes on military installations and weapons facilities following the fall of President Bashar al-Assad. These strikes aim to eliminate threats to Israeli security, particularly from Iran and Hezbollah. Significant targets include sites in Tartous and Damascus, which serve military purposes, such as naval bases and air defense systems. Israel has also violated the 1974 armistice by entering the UN-patrolled buffer zone in the Golan Heights and has plans to increase settlements in the region. The weakening of Syria's air defenses could enhance Israel's ability to strike targets in Iran, especially amidst uncertainty regarding the future Middle East strategy under the Trump administration. Israel is establishing a "sterile defense zone" in southern Syria near the Golan Heights to prevent insurgent groups from organizing near its borders. This buffer zone aims to create a security barrier without a permanent Israeli presence, indicating a long-term strategy rather than a temporary measure. Additionally, Israel has been countering Iranian influence in Syria through airstrikes targeting Iranian military sites and proxies, advancing its broader goal of Greater Israel by ensuring regional stability and control.

Challenges for Iran
Iran has supported Bashar al-Assad since the onset of Syria’s war in 2011, supplying fighters, weapons, and military advice to maintain his regime and uphold Tehran’s “axis of resistance” against Israel and the US. Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, labeled the opposition, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), as an “American-Zionist ploy” aiming to destabilize the region following the Israeli war on Gaza. Recently, militants attacked Iran’s embassy in Damascus, causing significant damage and destruction. Assad’s potential downfall represents a major shift in the Middle East, threatening Iran’s influence and strategic ambitions, particularly its support for Hezbollah, which faces operational challenges without Syrian backing. Sunni insurgents and regional powers like Saudi Arabia and Turkey are exploiting this power vacuum. At the same time, Israel views Assad’s potential fall as advantageous, possibly paving the way for direct action against Iran. Iran's Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, has claimed that Syria will be "liberated" by its youth, indicating a potential re-involvement of Iran and possibly Russia in Syria's political and military landscape. This development complicates the situation, especially with Turkey supporting the Syrian National Army (SNA) and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which conflict with U.S.-backed Kurdish forces (SDF). There are rising tensions in Syria and challenges to achieving stability in the post-Assad era.

Russian Distress or Exchange
Until now, Russia has been a supporter of Assad in Syria. In 2015, following Assad’s request, Russia intervened militarily, deploying troops, including the Wagner Group, to combat both the Syrian opposition and the Islamic State, accompanied by air strikes. By 2017, Russia had stationed soldiers permanently, solidifying its support. However, when rebels gained control, Russia refrained from using military force to back Assad, offering refuge to him and his family instead. Despite these changes, Russia remains interested in Syria, adapting its strategy by fostering relations with the new Syrian government. The Kremlin values its two key military bases in Syria: the Tartus Naval Base and the Khmeimim Air Base. It could represent a strategic defeat for Putin in the Middle East if forced to withdraw from these bases. There is speculation that Russia may have paused its support for Assad in exchange for reduced US opposition in Ukraine, particularly under the Trump Administration, which aims to end global conflicts. The US prioritizes Israel’s security, evident in Israel’s annexation of Syrian regions. Russia's inactivity in supporting Assad could be linked to this broader geopolitical exchange. Only time will reveal the accuracy of this theory.

Turkey’s Triumph
The Syrian conflict has significantly transformed Turkey's role in regional and international politics. Over the past decade, while Turkey has influenced the course of the conflict, it has also been affected by it, reshaping its domestic and foreign relations. The ethnic, sectarian, and ideological divisions present in Syria parallel those in Turkey, and the presence of around 3.6 million Syrian refugees has fueled the rise of far-right and xenophobic parties, altering the nationalist political landscape. Turkey has consistently been a strong ally of the Syrian opposition, with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan viewing the potential fall of Assad as a vindication of his government's policies. Previously, Turkey's Syria policy focused on four key objectives: managing the flow of refugees, ensuring border security, countering the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), and negotiating concessions from the Assad regime for the opposition. With Assad's regime weakened, the last goal has become irrelevant. Nonetheless, Turkey aims to leverage its influence with new leaders in Damascus and maintain military pressure on the SDF while pursuing its remaining objectives.

US Hypocrisy and Priority
The collapse of the al-Assad regime in Syria has been welcomed by the US and the European Union, viewing it as a setback for Russia and Iran. European nations hope this change will encourage Syrian refugees to return home. In high-level discussions, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken focused on stabilizing Syria and fighting terrorism, emphasizing priorities such as combating Daesh/ISIS and PKK. However, the US's approach seems more centered on managing conflict escalation rather than seeking resolution. This strategy has led to concerns about Ukraine being sidelined and allowing rogue states to expand their influence. Al-Jolani, once labeled a terrorist by the US and now in a leadership position, complicates our understanding of terrorism and exposes the double standards employed by powerful nations in dealing with extremists. This situation highlights how smaller nations often become pawns in the geopolitical chess game, with their interests marginalized in favor of larger strategic aims. In this landscape, terrorism, previously condemned, appears to resurface as a covert tool for political maneuvering, raising questions about the legitimacy of such tactics.

The Future
The next few years will show whether the Syrian government and its people can stay united and work to save their country from collapse. The key lies in finding a balance between external help and internal strength. Syria's future depends on the ability of its people to stand together and reject efforts to break apart their nation. The stakes are high, and the world is paying attention. The international community should support Syria’s sovereignty, help facilitate peace talks, and address the urgent humanitarian needs of the population. Actions aimed at breaking Syria apart or taking control only prolong the cycle of violence and instability. Israel is likely preparing for a final confrontation with Iran. This escalation could weaken Russia's influence and power in the region, possibly ending its role as a major player in the Middle East. If the U.S. continues its current policy, as expected, until the upcoming change in leadership in Washington, it might give Russia some measure of influence. The fall of Al-Assad and the resulting shift in the region's power dynamics could lead to significant changes in the balance of power in the Middle East, and the full implications of this will take years to understand.

Simon Mohsin: Political and International Affairs Analyst.