The equation that will ensure voter turnout

Various speculations are going on around the 12th national elections. Attempts are also being made to match the political equation. BNP and its like-minded parties did not participate in the national elections this time, demanding elections under a non-partisan, neutral government. On the other hand, the ruling Awami League, despite facing criticism and controversies, has successfully completed the election process from its advantageous position. The election campaign is also in full swing, with candidates canvassing door-to-door to garner votes. There are also incidents of conflict between rival candidates at various places around the election.

However, as a major political party like BNP is not participating in the election, a section of political analysts feel that the election may be questionable due to the crisis in voter attendance. And keeping this issue in mind, Awami League has given an opportunity to party leaders as independent candidates in addition to party candidates to ensure voter attendance. Basically, this strategy has also shaped this election campaign.

In the country, among the conducted 11 national elections, the implementation of democratic principles in the government was evident in the elections of 1991, 1996, and 2001. During these elections, both the Awami League and BNP secured significant shares of the votes. In the 2008 election, Awami League's vote was relatively high.

The total number of votes cast in the 1991 national election was 34477803 which were 55.45 percent of total voters. Awami League got 30.08 percent of these votes. They got 88 seats. In the same place, BNP won 140 seats by getting 30.81 percent votes. At that time, the percentage of votes obtained by the Jatiya Party was 11.92 percent and the winning seats were 35. In this election, Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami won 18 seats with 12.13 percent of the total votes cast.

In the seventh national election of 1996, the total number of votes cast was 42880576 or 74.96 percent of the total number of voters. Out of the votes, Awami League got 37.44 percent and they won 146 seats. BNP won 116 seats and got 33.60 percent votes. Jatiya Party got 32 seats in this election, 16.39 percent of the total votes cast. Jamaat got 3 seats in this election but their vote rate was 8 percent.

In the eighth national election held in 2001, a total of 56,185,707 votes were cast, constituting 75.59% of the total eligible voters. In this election, BNP secured victory in 193 seats with a total vote share of 40.97%. Meanwhile, the Awami League won 62 seats, receiving a total vote share of 40.13%. Jatiya Party and Jukto Front collectively garnered 7.25% of the votes, winning in 14 constituencies. Additionally, Jamaat secured 4.28% of the votes and won 17 seats in this election. It is noteworthy that in consecutive electorally significant elections, the vote shares of the Awami League and the BNP were closely contested.

In subsequent times, BNP did not participate in the 2014 national election held during the tenure of the Awami League government. In the 2018 national election, after various debates and speculations, the BNP eventually participated. However, they raised allegations of vote rigging right from the beginning of the day. As a result, the distribution of percentage votes among various political parties in these two elections remains inconclusive.

If you see at the past elections, it is clear that Awami League and BNP have close vote share. It is more noticeable that after 2001, Awami League's vote has increased significantly, while BNP's has decreased. It is worth mentioning that from 1991 to 2008, in four consecutive elections, the BNP's ally, Jamaat-e-Islami, has witnessed a gradual decline in votes. Similarly, the Jatiya Party's vote has declined in three other elections compared to 1991.

From the analysis of previous elections, it can be observed that Awami League maintains an average of 40% of the votes, while BNP holds an average of 35%. If we add the votes of BNP and its ally, Jamaat-e-Islami, this time the combined vote share would not reach 39%. Therefore, there is an opportunity for the Awami League to secure a presence in the election with 61% of the votes. Within this 61%, 40% would be contributed by the Awami League, while the remaining 7% would come from the Jatiya Party. In essence, the presence of around 47% of the votes is reasonably assured.

Outside of these considerations, independent candidates will actively work to bring voters to the polling centers on their own initiative. Even supporters of BNP, motivated by the desire to secure votes for their party's success, will make efforts in this regard. In this situation, there is a possibility of an additional 5% to 10% voter presence. On the other hand, some voters affiliated with the Awami League and Jatiya Party may also abstain from coming to the voting centers due to various reasons. Therefore, ensuring the participation of at least 50% of the voters in this election, without the influence of the BNP, will be challenging.

The voter turnout rate will be a significant factor in the upcoming election, and when asked about this, former Election Commissioner Brigadier General (Retd.) M. Shakhawat Hossain said, "It's not just about one party; there are multiple parties participating in the election. Some parties do not have a presence in the election, and even those who have some votes are not actively participating. Left-wing parties do have some votes, and in some places, they have their supporters. Islamic parties also have considerable support, especially in Chittagong and the southern parts of Bangladesh. They have received significant votes in local government elections from well-established parties. However, they are not participating this time. Despite these considerations, there should not be any difficulty in showing up for voting. However, the big question remains about how much the actual voter turnout will be, and that's a crucial matter."

What is the probability of electoral conflict when party, independent or dummy candidates are of the same party? How will this situation affect voter turnout? In response to such questions, the former election commissioner said, "Electoral conflicts have started." Here, since the candidates of one party are different, the voters of the other party will not vote. No matter what percentage the polls read, even if it is correct, people will not believe it. There is no question of credibility here.”

Despite participating in the Awami League-led alliance, which includes party affiliates, independents, Leftist groups, and coalition partners, BNP is staying outside the electoral process. The manner in which the votes of BNP will be utilized and who will benefit from their absence in the elections remains uncertain. Addressing questions about the potential impact of BNP's non-participation on the overall voting outcome, Professor Dr. Nazmul Ahsan Kalimullah, chairman of the National Election Observation Council (known as JANIPAP), said, "The high command of BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami has directed their high command to refrain from going to the polling centers." The directive suggests a strategic decision by the BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami leadership to influence voter turnout, but the ultimate effect on the election results is yet to be determined.

However, one aspect of the reality in Bangladesh will not align with this scenario, while another part will. The impact of the flow of money in elections will play a significant role here, particularly in terms of the cash-driven dynamics in Narayanganj. Additionally, our election system predominantly revolves around enticing voters, making their presence at polling centers crucial. Hence, this plays a major role. Since multiple candidates are present in various constituencies, it will likely increase voter turnout, surpassing the 40% threshold.

As powerful candidates in the elections belong to influential parties, the likelihood of conflicts is significantly higher. This trend has already begun, resulting in casualties, and more serious incidents of violence occur daily.

Meanwhile, former vice-chancellor of the National University and professor of political science Harun-or-Rashid said that independent candidates will emerge as the second party in the 12th national election.

He said, "The voter turnout in this year's national elections will be higher than in 2014. Even if there is no BNP, since Awami League has party and independent candidates, there will be intense competition in many places. A significant number of independent candidates will be elected. They will emerge as the second party and the Jatiya Party will be in the third position.”

The political scientist believes that voter turnout in the election will likely be between 40% and 50%. He said, "In the current state of the country, the narrative presented by the BNP regarding election rigging is not likely to materialize. The election will be competitive and peaceful. The focus should not be solely on the percentage of voter turnout; rather, the crucial aspect is whether the elections can be conducted peacefully. If voter turnout falls within the range of 40% to 50%, it will be considered positive. The key point to observe is whether a peaceful and impactful election can take place. If voters can cast their votes and see their preferences reflected in the election results, then it will be highly praised."

Despite being present on the election field, there has been some seat distribution discord among the 14-party alliance and the National Party. In this election, the Awami League has allocated 32 seats to its allied parties, leaving 26 seats for the Jatiya Party. Among the 14 allied parties, the Workers Party secured two seats, JSD three seats, and Jatiya Party (JP) obtained one seat. However, compared to the elections in 2014 and 2018, the alliance partners of the Awami League have won more seats this time, surpassing their previous achievements. In the 2014 elections, the Jatiya Party won 34 seats, the Workers' Party 6 seats and the Jasad (INU) 05 seats. The number of seats allotted to them in the 11th national election of 2018 was more than this. In the last national election of the country, Jatiya Party won 22 seats, Workers Party 03 seats and JSD-(INU) 2 seats from alliance with Awami League. But this time the equation is different. Before leaving the seat of the Grand Alliance, it was seen that there was a lot of dissatisfaction among these coalition parties.

In response to the question of whether dissatisfaction among the alliance partners will have any impact on the election field, Professor Dr. Harun-or-Rashid said, "In some places, the allies of the Awami League may face defeat from independent candidates. Offering a seat does not guarantee assured victory; they must win based on their capabilities. This decision lies in the hands of the voters. If the leadership of the alliance cannot secure victory based on their qualifications, then who else will win for them? They have been given enough opportunities until now. Furthermore, if they fail, it signifies that they lack organization and public support. They are essentially holding onto a party without any purpose. They need to address these issues. It remains to be seen whether, after the election, many significant leaders of the alliance might announce retirement from politics, acknowledging the importance of this moment. Acknowledging the continued relevance of the alliance, the political scientist further states, "However, to empower the alliance, bringing in individuals, possibly women, for reserved seats could be considered. The alliance is centered around an ideal, and that ideal has not yet faded away. Consequently, the alliance remains necessary, and efforts should be made to strengthen it. Additionally, including more consensus among its members is also essential."