Three unexpected events in 2024

In 2024, several events took place worldwide. Record-breaking floods occurred, and there were fatalities in countries that had never experienced floods before. Nations like Romania, Austria, and the Czech Republic suffered from this. This year also saw the highest recorded temperatures on Earth, along with unprecedented international concern over climate change. In space, some unusual events were observed as well. From May 10 to 13, a massive solar storm occurred. This solar storm was ten times stronger than any previously known by scientists. Meanwhile, by the end of the year, NASA’s spacecraft reached a speed of 430,000 miles per hour, coming as close as 3.8 million miles to the Sun. This spacecraft is the fastest human-made object ever sent into space, and no spacecraft had ever come so close to the Sun before.

Among the politically significant countries this year, India, Japan, South Africa, and Germany managed to keep their governments intact, though their political positions weakened. After a long period, the Labour Party formed a government in the UK following the Conservative Party's defeat. Leadership changes took place in several smaller countries, either through movements or elections. This year also saw the first widespread missile strikes between Iran and Israel. Additionally, the Ukraine war and the Israel-Gaza conflict expanded, with Israel attacking Lebanon this year. The conflict in Myanmar also intensified. These events, along with many others, will be reviewed at the end of the year. However, three specific events stand out, which share certain characteristics. The common feature is that all three events occurred unexpectedly and within a short span of time.

The first event is the unexpected fall of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina from power in Bangladesh, when she fled to India for refuge. This event was so surprising that many people are still in shock. Major movements had occurred against Sheikh Hasina’s government in 2013, 2014, and 2018, with millions of people participating. She had suppressed these movements and continued her rule confidently. However, in July 2024, when students took to the streets demanding quota reforms, it ultimately shook her long-standing grip on power. The students' demands were very reasonable and easy to implement, but the Hasina government completely ignored them. Gradually, ordinary people joined the protests. Eventually, the movement turned into a one-point demand for Sheikh Hasina’s resignation. On August 5, she left the Prime Minister's residence and sought refuge in India. Just two weeks before her downfall, no one could have imagined that this movement would lead to the collapse of her government. In the initial stages, the protesters had not even called for the government’s downfall.

The second event is related to the United States presidential election. On November 5, the US held its presidential election. Long before the election, there was a global assumption that Democratic candidate Kamala Harris would be elected. Former President Donald Trump had sparked many controversies, with several lawsuits filed against him, ranging from tax evasion to criminal charges. The majority of the US media had downplayed Trump’s chances of being elected. However, the election results were shocking. Even the Republican Party gained majorities in both the House of Representatives and the Senate. Six states in the US became crucial swing states, with Pennsylvania in particular playing a key role.

In the election, it was observed that in all the swing states, the Republican Party, i.e., Trump’s party, was leading. Unexpectedly, a significant number of Black and Hispanic voters cast their votes in favor of Trump. In the 2020 election, Trump received 8 per cent of the Black vote and 32 per cent of the Hispanic vote. However, in the 2024 election, these figures increased substantially, reaching 13 per cent and 45 per cent, respectively. Despite his anti-immigration stance, it was surprising that so many South American immigrants voted for him. He will assume the presidency on January 20, 2025.

The third event concerns Syria. On December 8, Syria’s recently former President Bashar al-Assad fled the country and sought refuge in Russia. His father, Hafez al-Assad, had been in power in Syria for nearly 29 years, starting in 1971. After his death in 2000, Bashar, his second son, took power. Bashar became president after the tragic death of his older brother, Bassel al-Assad, in an accident. In this way, Hafez al-Assad had established an unwritten, powerful dynasty. However, during the Arab Spring, large-scale movements began to demand Bashar’s ousting.

Although many rulers were overthrown in various Arab countries, Bashar remained in power with the help of Russia and Iran. This, however, led to a civil war. The civil war lasted for more than a decade, but it never seemed like Assad would have to leave power. However, on December 8, 2024, just a week before his departure, an armed group named Hayat Tahrir al-Sham began advancing from the northern Syrian city of Aleppo. Despite his earlier efforts to quell major uprisings, Bashar quickly realized that this time, there was no turning back. As the rebels initiated their campaign to overthrow him. His wife Asma al-Assad, along with their three children, first moved to the United Arab Emirates and then to Russia. Assad's sister and other relatives also sought refuge in the United Arab Emirates.

Indeed, the sudden fall of Assad was not entirely inevitable, but there were clear reasons for it. His two main supporting countries, Russia and Iran, were both preoccupied with other wars. Russia had to devote all its resources to the war in Ukraine against NATO. On the other hand, Iran became so deeply involved in the Israel-Lebanon conflict that it no longer had the capacity to continue supporting Bashar al-Assad from behind the scenes. Hezbollah fighters, who had been in Syria for a long time supporting Assad’s government, had to withdraw to Lebanon once they entered direct conflict with Israel. As a result, Assad’s opposition took control of the region.

Although all three of these events happened very quickly, each of them had a long history behind it. Public opinion started turning against Sheikh Hasina after the 2014 election, which was marred by vote rigging. Since then, she had remained in power with the help of the administration. The people had almost forgotten that she too would have to leave power one day. It seemed like she had secured a permanent position in power, but within just two weeks, everything turned upside down. Similarly, in the US election, there was an atmosphere where everyone expected the Democrats to form the government. However, the situation began to change after the world’s richest person, Elon Musk, directly aligned with the Republican candidate, Trump. As for Bashar al-Assad, his departure could have happened as early as 12 years ago. That would not have been unusual, but it was his sudden exit, with just seven days’ notice, that shocked the world. In just 14 days of protest, Sheikh Hasina, who had held on to power for 14 years, had to leave. Bashar al-Assad, who had ruled for 24 years, had to leave his country with just a 7-day warning.

Every year, there are some upheavals and new developments. As 2025 begins, many events, both good and bad, may unfold in the world. Some may be expected, while others may be unexpected. Therefore, we all need to be prepared. However, as always, we hope for peace in the world, the establishment of human rights, and an end to the wars, conflicts, and loss of innocent lives. This is our hope for the future.

Every year, there are some upheavals and new developments. As 2025 begins, many events, both good and bad, may unfold in the world. Some may be expected, while others may be unexpected. Therefore, we all need to be prepared. However, as always, we hope for peace in the world, the establishment of human rights, and an end to the wars, conflicts, and loss of innocent lives. This is our hope for the future.

Mohsin Habib: Writer, Journalist, and International Affairs Analyst.