Trump era sparks major changes in EU diplomacy

After losing to Joe Biden in the 2020 election, Donald Trump stirred controversy by rejecting the election results and inciting his supporters, leading to riots. Following lawsuits and criminal charges, many thought Trump’s political career was over. However, he surprised everyone by making a powerful comeback to the presidency, making history. In the 250-year history of the United States, such an event has occurred only once before. Former President Grover Cleveland lost the 1888 election after serving four years in office but returned to the White House by winning the 1892 election four years later. With Donald Trump's victory, the United States witnessed the repetition of that historic event after 132 years. Trump's win also set another record: he became the oldest person to be elected as President of the United States.

Donald Trump's return to the White House has put EU leaders in front of a new reality. They now face two major traps. One is the fear of Trump's potential policies, and the other is avoiding the situation altogether without confronting reality. They must avoid falling into both of these traps. The problem is that it won't be easy for EU leaders to save themselves from falling into these traps; on the other hand, if they fail to avoid these traps, the EU could face severe consequences. It's difficult to predict what Trump might do next, as he is an incredibly impulsive person. However, there is no doubt that Trump's political instincts and declared plans will shake the pillars of EU security, economy, and political systems.

There are significant reasons for Europeans to be concerned about security issues. For example, Trump's proposed peace plan for Ukraine could violate the country's territorial integrity and potentially disarm it, permanently removing it from NATO. After Trump assumes office, the United States may significantly reduce its involvement in NATO, shifting the responsibility for military command and expenses onto Europeans. As a result, NATO itself might become inactive. Europeans are understandably worried about the Middle East issue. Trump's peace plan in the region could mean supporting the expansionist plans of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's far-right coalition. Trump's plan could even include measures such as expelling Palestinians from Gaza and the West Bank and resettling them in Egypt and Jordan. There are fears that, after Trump comes to power, the economic situation may worsen even further.

Trump has stated that he plans to impose a universal import tariff of 10 to 20 percent on goods imported from foreign countries to the United States. Additionally, a 60 percent tariff will be levied on goods imported from China. Trump's policy could potentially trigger a global trade war. If such a trade war occurs, other governments may take retaliatory actions against the United States to protect their economies. If Trump's tough tariff policy succeeds in driving China out of the US market, Europeans will face increased risks. This is because the excess production capacity from China will have a greater impact on Europe. The situation in the EU could become even more complicated.

The reason is that, with Trump as president, the EU will be unable to take retaliatory actions collectively. A so-called international alliance called the 'Illiberal International' will play a role in preventing them from uniting. This alliance includes Trump’s close allies, Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. These leaders often demonstrate anti-liberation mindsets in their policies, which could weaken the EU’s overall political and strategic response. For these reasons, EU leaders are on the brink of panic and are being tempted to rush into bilateral agreements with Washington, as many did during Trump’s first term. However, if they work with the US separately, it will directly harm the unity of the EU. If EU leaders ignore or dismiss the kinds of threats Trump can create, in the end, they may find that they have failed to properly prepare themselves to handle the situation as they should have.

EU leaders knew for four years that Trump could make a comeback, and they took some measures to address potential situation. They have also taken steps to deal with their new geopolitical vulnerabilities, such as increasing defense spending and reducing dependence on Russian gas. However, overall, their progress has been slow. Meanwhile, some EU leaders are floating in a false sense of confidence. They believe that since they managed to survive Trump's first term, they will be able to survive another one as well. But they need to remember, the Trump of 2017-2020 is very different from the current Trump.

Trump in his first term was an outsider in politics, someone who was surprised by his election victory and eager to gain recognition from institutions. This time, Trump is experienced. During his previous term, he was obstructed by certain institutions, and now he is determined to take revenge against them. This issue should be taken seriously by EU leaders, and they must prepare accordingly. The most urgent task for EU leaders is to reach a consensus on their common interests within the next 70 days, from now until January 20, 2025, and figure out how to protect those interests. If it is possible to protect these interests together with the United States, that would be ideal; otherwise, they will have to do it on their own. This means that the EU must prepare a well-organized plan to protect itself from security and economic pressures. The most immediate concern for the EU is Ukraine.

It is essential to first ensure that no agreement is made to disarm Ukraine and keep the country away from NATO. Additionally, the EU must ensure the continuous supply of ammunition and air defense systems to Ukraine in the short term. In the long term, the EU must provide Ukraine with reliable security guarantees. Furthermore, the EU needs to find more efficient ways to spend on defense. NATO and the EU should increase the number of troops prepared for war and, if necessary, strengthen their own nuclear deterrence capabilities. The second biggest challenge for the EU will be trade. If Trump imposes tariffs on all imports as promised, a trade war between the EU and its largest export market will be inevitable.

In this situation, the EU must prepare to take countermeasures against the United States and try to expand trade with other parts of the world. Trump's victory is completely changing the context of the relationship between the EU and Britain. Now, the EU should come forward with a large and bold proposal to Britain, so that they can work together to create a new kind of partnership. The UK Prime Minister, Keir Starmer, should commit to working for a stronger and more united EU. To achieve this, EU member states like France, Germany, Italy, Poland, and Spain must rise above their internal politics and establish a pan-European consensus. In response to Trump's return, the EU will need creativity, resilience, and a strong commitment to protecting its own interests. The EU must remember that every crisis brings an opportunity.

The Trump crisis has also presented an opportunity for Europeans to form a stronger and more self-reliant bloc. While there is no major concern in Bangladesh regarding Trump's victory, there are some apprehension. This news primarily concerns the potential impact of Republican leader Donald Trump's victory in the US elections on Bangladesh. Analysts claim that there is no significant reason for concern in Bangladesh over this outcome. They believe that the US relationship does not depend solely on one party; it involves various aspects such as trade, strategy, and geopolitics. However, diplomats suggest that the reforms the interim government in Bangladesh is currently undergoing could potentially affect the promises of US support. Nevertheless, Washington’s politicians, diplomats, and policymakers have stated that Trump’s possible victory will not create any complications in the relationship with the US.

The European Union leaders had the opportunity to closely observe Donald Trump when he was the President of the United States from 2017 to 2021. Since his thoughts, political philosophy, and policies are not unfamiliar to them, the change in power will not significantly affect US-EU relations, even if Trump wins again. Germany's Defense Minister, Michael Stempfli, stated, "The EU is not at all confused. The biggest challenge for the future will be the Indo-Pacific region. This region will also be the biggest challenge for Europe." However, it's not that there are no reasons for concern. During Trump's previous presidency, the relationship between the US and its NATO allies within the EU had become quite strained. The tension reached a point where Trump even threatened to withdraw the US from NATO. Overall, it can be said that Trump's return would not be a comfortable situation for the EU.

Rayhan Ahmed Tapader: Researcher and Columnist