US Ceasefire Plan, Finally!

James Elder, the UNICEF spokesperson inside Gaza: “Homes, hospitals, schools, universities, agriculture, the economy… devastated. And still the bombs fall”.

Gaza is devastated, destroyed, made unlivable. But fortunately now, we have a ceasefire proposal that the US and the west supports.

It is a three-phase plan set by President Biden. It will involve a six-week ceasefire that can become permanent. It also involves the rebuilding of Gaza with international assistance. Biden termed it Israel’s proposal. Seemingly an attempt to effectively spur both sides into progress. It is also claimed that the text is “nearly identical” to the one that Hamas had endorsed last month. UNSC has endorsed the ceasefire proposal. Hamas was quick to welcome the resolution. In a joint statement, Hamas and Islamic Jihad both have mentioned that they are ready to cooperate in indirect negotiations over the ceasefire plan’s implementation. Israel's spokesperson in the UN in her statement made it clear that they will continue with their attacks until Hamas is eliminated, and will not engage in fruitless time consuming negotiations, although Biden says that Israel supports the plan.

Gaza is devastated, destroyed, made unlivable. But fortunately now, we have a ceasefire proposal that the US and the west supports.

The UNSC passed the resolution endorsing the plan and made it legally binding. It now awaits implementation effectively and reliably. Hamas statements show the willingness; Gazans are desperate to have it; the world demands it; and the US and the West now want it too.

So, what if Gaza is devastated, destroyed, made unlivable; we now have a ceasefire proposal that the US and the west supports.

Netanyahu had said previously that Biden presented only parts of the proposal. He insists that any talk of a permanent ceasefire before dismantling Hamas’s military and governing capabilities was a non-starter. This is in line with the UN Spokesperson’s statements, the only official statement or reaction we have got from Israel as of yet. It clearly raises questions about the possible effectiveness of the ceasefire proposal.

But we now have a ceasefire proposal that the US and the west supports. So, what if Gaza is devastated, destroyed, made unlivable.

The plan’s third phase talks about rebuilding Gaza with international assistance. Israelis have already begun selling and buying real estate in Gaza. Right wing Israeli groups and Zionists have made it clear that Gaza will not be returned to the Gazans, or the Arabs as they refer to Palestinians. Israelis have seemingly come to the decision that Arabs will have to go! With such intolerance and unwillingness, it is questionable whether any plan can have incur any long term respite for the Gazans. They are likely to suffer. But, at least not be killed and ripped apart by bombs, if the ceasefire plan is implemented.

But there is a ceasefire plan now that the US and the West support. So what if Gaza is devastated, destroyed, made unlivable for ‘Arabs’. It might be made into an oasis for the Israelis.

There is curiosity as to what changed Biden’s mind and compelled him to come up with this plan that the US is now promoting zealously. State Secretary Blinken has traveled to the Middle East to have this plan endorsed by all parties. His statements have been insinuating that it will be Hamas that would create an obstacle to the plan's adoption and implementation. Apparently, Hamas and even Islamic Jihad have given indications that are contrary to Blinken’s insinuations. Rather, the Israelis are giving strong indications of creating obstacles to the plan. There seems to be a clear indignation among the Israeli administration about any plan that puts the Israeli Administration at fault or in a situation that forces them to give any leeway to the Palestinians. This makes many think that the ceasefire would likely stop the bombs, but may not bring any long-term respite and welfare for the Gazans. They will be alive!

But, there is a ceasefire plan now that the US and the West support. So what if Gazans are likely to remain devastated, destroyed, and their homes remain unlivable.

There is already disgruntlement in the Israel Administration as Gantz, the main political contender of Netanyahu, has resigned from the war cabinet, politically weakening Netanyahu’s position. Gantz had proposed a six-point plan that would include bringing a temporary US-European-Arab-Palestinian system of civil administration for Gaza while Israel would overall control of security in and of Gaza. He clearly wants no autonomy for the Gazans as the international law dictates. He is at an advantage now, as whatever the result and political consequences, it will be Netanyahu who would suffer them. Netanyahu is already the greatest villain and an incorrigible negotiation partner, even for the US. Any political fallout is now his sole burden to carry, while Gantz will be the next likely candidate to succeed him. The political strategy games in Israel are afoot, at the expense of Gazans whatsoever. Although Netanyahu holds a majority in the Israeli Government, he has become increasingly dependent on far-right groups and parties for exercising his power, and Gantz is a key ally in this regard. Netanyahu has lost him as indications are that the far-right groups want the war to go on and want complete control of Gaza, and consequently the West Bank, irrespective of the consequences to the Palestinians and/or how the world would view Israel. Several of Netanyahu's cabinet members have explicitly spoken of completely occupying Gaza.

But, there is a ceasefire plan now that the US and the West support. So what if Gaza is devastated, destroyed, unlivable, and Gazans are likely to be the last to be considered in any strategy being considered.

Biden is following suit too. Biden’s vote bank has a majority of young progressive voters that are considered the backbone of the Democratic Party. There is an increasing risk of their turning against the party in large numbers given Biden's complicity in the Israeli onslaught against Gaza. In the US elections, foreign policy is rarely an issue of impact for casting their votes unless something has gone very wrong. Gaza seems to be that oje thing that has gone wrong for Biden resulting in people prioritizing foreign policy in their 2024 issues of importance. Biden was mainly taken off-guard and forced to come up with a ceasefire plan because of the uncommitted national campaign. This movement has brought in nearly half a million dollars in finance as the movement pushed Biden towards a ceasefire in Gaza. The movement started in Michigan’s presidential primary. More than 100,000 voters cast ballots for uncommitted. It was a signal to Biden about how disgruntled his likely voters are for his role in Gaza. Since then, other states like Minnesota, Washington and Wisconsin organized similar campaigns that quickly got people to respond by sending Biden a message. Biden has responded and come up with a ceasefire plan. This will appease his voters who will likely now consider the domestic issues for casting their votes as it should be.

Afterall, what if Gaza is devastated, destroyed, made unlivable; we now have a ceasefire proposal that the US and the west supports.

I hope I am wrong!

Author: Political and International Affairs Analyst.