What message does world receives from Trump's 'America First' doctrine

Donald Trump is returning to the White House for a second term, and this return could bring significant changes to global politics and economics. It is believed that once Trump resumes his duties as the President of the United States, he will begin implementing his declared "America First" policy. This agenda will not only change the intricacies of US foreign policy but will also have a profound impact on the lives of millions of people living outside America's borders. There is much speculation about how Trump's approach to major international issues might unfold. During his election campaign, Trump repeatedly stated that he could end the Russia-Ukraine war in a day, though he never clarified how he would achieve this.

Since the start of the Russia-Ukraine war, the United States has provided billions of dollars in military aid to Ukraine, and Trump has been a staunch critic of this. Recently, Trump stated that Russian President Vladimir Putin wants to meet him, and his associates are preparing for this meeting. The military alliance of 32 countries, including the United States, the United Kingdom, France, and Germany, known as NATO, has long been a thorn in Trump's side. During his first term as president, he threatened to withdraw the United States from NATO if its members did not meet their commitment to spend 2.0 per cent of their GDP on defense. At that time, he also made it clear that if a country failed to meet its defense spending commitment, the US would not come to its aid even if it was attacked.

Earlier this January, Trump called on NATO's European members to increase defense spending and allocate 5.0 per cent of their national income to defense. According to a description on his campaign website, his goal is to reevaluate NATO's objectives and principles. Analysts are divided on whether Trump would ever withdraw the United States from this alliance, but many believe that, as a NATO member, he could still reduce the importance the US places on it. Michelle Obama, for example, did not require much explanation for her decision to boycott Donald Trump's inauguration as the newly elected president. It is clear that the former First Lady does not like Trump because of his racist and misogynistic views. Many US allies in Europe would also have boycotted him if they could, but the reality is that for the next four years, they will have to work with him.

A survey by the European Council on Foreign Relations found that in countries like China, India, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, South Africa, and Brazil, the number of people welcoming Trump's return exceeds those who oppose him. On the other hand, in the UK, France, Germany, and other European nations, Trump's return has become a source of significant concern. But the reality is that, for most, rejecting Trump, like Michelle Obama, is more of a luxury than a practical choice. Even if the US's power and influence diminish, ignoring a sitting US president is neither realistic nor feasible. Many large countries believe Trump's second term could be advantageous for them. European countries, however, remain in a different position—they simply cannot trust Trump.

However, if they completely distance themselves from Trump, there is a risk of losing their influence in global politics. Emerging powerful countries believe that Trump's ideologically ambiguous, nationalist, and self-interested approach is more suited for the current times. In fact, this reflects their own point of view. To them, Trump symbolizes a significant change. But is this a mistake on their part that they will later regret? Professor Charles Kupchan of Georgetown University believes that Trump’s foreign policy does not adhere to any particular principle or ideology, meaning his approach could go either way—good or bad. In this situation, foreign leaders' main task will be to guide Trump on the right path, work with him strategically, and mitigate the impact of his bad decisions.

Trump's actions remind us of former British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher. Thatcher dismantled the old order but failed to create a new one. Emphasizing this aspect, Kupchan cautions, “Trump is a destructive leader; he knows how to break things, but he doesn’t know how to build. He may not help build a new and improved international order, but instead, he could destroy the old system and leave America and the world in ruins.” While names like Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, Hungary's Viktor Orbán, and NATO chief Mark Rutte are mentioned, none of them have the capability to handle a "wild horse" like Trump on their own. Therefore, a leader capable of managing Trump is urgently needed on the global stage. In fact, the ongoing war in Ukraine presents a major test of Trump’s approach to foreign policy, evaluating whether his stance will prove beneficial or detrimental.

Trump has expressed objections to the military aid provided to Ukraine. He stated that he understands why Russian President Vladimir Putin opposes Ukraine joining NATO. Trump has claimed that he could end the Russia-Ukraine war, but it might require Ukraine to cede some territory to Russia, and Russia would have to accept it as a reward for its aggression. However, Trump likely understands that the chaotic situation created in Afghanistan by Biden should not be repeated. He does not want Russia, China, Iran, or North Korea to emerge victorious. Therefore, some believe Trump might actually increase support for Ukraine instead of cutting it off, so Kyiv can have a stronger position in future negotiations.

At this point, European leaders and Trump’s opponents are merely spectators. If things go badly, Trump will emerge victorious. In such a case, he might make impulsive decisions, sever ties with old allies, disregard democracy both domestically and internationally, and embrace autocrats. If that happens, who will be able to handle him? This question needs an answer soon. Although Trump will be taking office after a ceasefire agreement in Gaza, ensuring its long-term implementation will pose significant challenges for him. In other words, bringing a permanent end to this war will be difficult for Trump. During his first term, Trump made several decisions in favor of Israel, including recognizing Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and relocating the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem.

During his tenure, the Trump administration also took a hardline stance against Iran. The US withdrew from the nuclear agreement, imposed increased sanctions on Iran, and ordered the assassination of Iran's most powerful military commander, General Qasem Soleimani. Many critics argue that Trump's policies contributed to some instability in the Middle East and led to the marginalization of Palestinians. While in office, he implemented the Abraham Accords, normalizing diplomatic relations between Israel, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco. However, the Arab countries' condition in the agreement was that Israel would eventually recognize an independent Palestinian state, a stipulation that was not honored at the time. After announcing a ceasefire in Gaza, Trump stated that he would use force in the Middle East based on the Abraham Accords to establish peace.

Many analysts believe this suggests Trump may attempt to broker a deal between Saudi Arabia and Israel. During his first term, Trump initiated a trade war with China, and in this term, he hinted that he might impose tariffs of up to 60 per cent on Chinese imports. He also suggested that if China attempts to block Taiwan, even harsher tariffs would be imposed. The new US president is known for his opposition to the concept of climate change. He has previously called green energy and environmental-friendly fuel concepts fraudulent. Many believe that Trump will pull the US out of the Paris Climate Agreement once again, a decision reversed by Joe Biden in 2021, who rejoined the agreement.

Climate change experts believe that Trump's presidency posed a threat to global climate efforts. One of the key promises in his election campaign was the deportation of immigrants residing in the US without proper documentation. From his first day in the White House, he vowed to launch "the largest mass deportation program in US history."

Moreover, Trump's administration aimed to change the policy granting US citizenship by birth, which allows anyone born in the US to automatically become a citizen. On another front, Trump also expressed concerns about the Panama Canal, claiming that if the cost of transporting goods through the canal remained high, the US might take control of it. While it's unlikely the US will take control of either region, Trump's recent statements and the "America First" policy suggest that the US will continue to assert its power beyond its borders.

Rayhan Ahmed Tapader: Researcher and Columnist