Where is the global geopolitical tension heading ?

The global order has been in disarray for some time. With Western hegemony already eroding and multilateral institutions increasingly under strain, global power is shifting in many directions. The role of centrist powers in shaping geopolitics will increase as the global balance of power shifts. One of the biggest questions for this year is whether the second term of newly elected President Donald Trump will usher in a more turbulent era in global affairs. Some of his policies threaten to be even more disastrous for an already chaotic world. How the United States deals with its allies, adversaries, and competitors under Trump will be one of the most important indicators of geopolitical developments. The future course of U.S.-China relations is the most important strategic aspect of the coming year. Trump’s unpredictable and volatile personality will either lead to increased tensions in U.S.-China relations or lead to major deals being made by Trump.

South African-born Musk has embarked on a world tour. He is fueling far-right ideology and trying to install his loyal extremist leaders in the UK. Elon Musk is not just a tech tycoon, he has also become a controversial figure in US politics. Some of his actions and comments have been widely criticized. For example, many considered one of his gestures at President Donald Trump's inauguration to be a Nazi salute. He has called the US development agency USAID a criminal organization and commented that it should be destroyed.

In addition, he is pursuing a policy of strict cost reduction as the head of the new government department, the Department of Government Efficiency, which is considered harmful to many. However, Musk's political ambitions are not limited to the United States. He helped bring the far-right Trump and his 'Make America Great Again' movement to power. He is now trying to exert similar political influence in other countries around the world, which is causing public institutions around the world to be in crisis. Public trust in these institutions is declining. And US President Donald Trump and his ally and one of the world's richest people, Elon Musk, see these institutions as enemies to be destroyed. Due to the decrease in funding and geopolitical divisions, international institutions are also weaker than before. The way Trump and Musk are talking about closing USAID and planning to abolish the Department of Education is probably not the right decision. It could boomerang and cause danger for them. However, it reminds us that there is no obligation for public institutions to remain as they were.

In fact, the days of advocating for the preservation of old institutions in their traditional form are coming to an end. Among the biggest challenges are the use of artificial intelligence (AI), addressing mental health issues, changing energy consumption and industrial policy - these cannot be successfully managed without effective institutions; but the current government departments, agencies, commissions and regulatory bodies are in many cases ill-equipped to meet these new demands. Institutions have always been essential to the functioning of government, whether it is to enforce the law, provide education, collect taxes or ensure security.

But as times change, new institutions must be established, such as for combating environmental pollution or fighting organized crime. The model of public institutions in today's world may be quite different from before. In the private sector, companies like Google, ByteDance, Amazon, and Alibaba have created new business models. It was once unimaginable that companies like Uber or Grab could provide taxi services without owning cars. Significant innovations have also occurred in the public sector. For example, India's Aadhaar project, launched in 2009, provided biometric IDs to over one billion people, increasing financial inclusion. In 2011, China established the Cyberspace Administration, leading to massive changes in the tech sector. However, many public institutions around the world are still operating within the old frameworks, most of which are pyramid models.

These are opaque and slow to respond. Even when new institutions are formed, they are typically created by senior politicians or bureaucrats, which makes them complicated and inefficient. While the use of AI is growing, effective institutions for its management have yet to be established. To reap the benefits of AI and control its harmful aspects, we need strong policies and regulatory bodies. Some tech companies are trying to discourage the government from implementing strict AI regulations. In 2023, Microsoft’s chief economist Michael Schwartz stated that AI doesn’t need regulation as long as there’s no major harm; but this essentially serves the interests of private companies. Economists like Daron Acemoglu and others have shown that a country's development depends on the efficiency of its institutions.

Without good institutions, progress is not possible. The question now is, how can we build institutions that can respond quickly and gain the trust of the public? New ideas are currently emerging in the field of public institution building. For example, a position called ‘Future Generation Commissioner’ has been created in Wales. It works to ensure the well-being of future generations. The European Commission is also considering introducing such a position. In addition, new institutions around the world are working to prevent misinformation or fake news, prevent electoral interference, reform the city's energy sector, empower indigenous communities and create employment opportunities for young people.

United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres stated in 2023 that to solve problems, institutions must align with current realities. If institutions don’t change with time, they will not solve problems but become part of the problem. We might be in an era of dismantling institutions; however, history shows that after such destruction, something new is formed. When the time for reconstruction arrives, we must already seek new and better alternatives. Brazilian sociologist Roberto Ungar said, “The real problem is the absence of alternatives in this world.” Therefore, the instability created by Trump and Elon Musk could serve as a powerful inspiration for new innovations. The year 2025 will also determine the course of the war in Ukraine and the Middle East. It seems that Trump’s advice on major changes in policies regarding Ukraine is unsettling European governments.

Trump often claims that he can end the war in one day. It seems that he will push Ukraine to enter negotiations with Russia, though he has not provided a specific plan to end the conflict. Trump might not oppose the result of such negotiations if it benefits Moscow and requires Ukraine to hand over territory. Trump has repeatedly said that he wants to end the war in the Middle East and secure a ceasefire in Gaza. Although he has avoided being specific, it is almost certain that this will happen on Israel’s terms. He has said the United States should stay out of Syria, but given the complex regional implications of regime change there, it is difficult to see how that is possible. Democracies around the world will face challenges. The trends expected from previous years do not seem to be encouraging. The ongoing political polarization and increasingly fragmented political situations in many countries are becoming increasingly unstable.

The erosion or weakening of the center of gravity in politics is a global trend. This is closely linked to the rise of right-wing populism, which continues in much of Europe and is evident elsewhere. This year could see advances in artificial intelligence. The use of AI-powered tools in business, the workplace, entertainment, media, healthcare and personal life will become an everyday occurrence. Significant changes have already been made in these areas. But this also ushers in an era of technological challenges, including cybersecurity. Another challenge is the use of AI in the military. The coming year will see the world face geopolitical tensions and economic challenges, which will test the ability of nations to survive, as well as the ability of the international community to move forward together to address common problems.

Raihan Ahmed Tapadar: Researcher and Columnist.