Where is the telecom industry heading: Who will control it?

The statistics grab headlines effortlessly: “Mobile internet subscriber base declines by 4.4 million.” As the Bangladesh Telecommunication Regulatory Commission (BTRC) regularly publishes data on mobile telecommunications and broadband subscribers, journalists have easy access to these numbers. By comparing data month over month, crafting a market report becomes straightforward. Mobile operators’ officials often provide insights into the business impact of subscriber fluctuations, and at times, analysts react emotionally to the figures without deeper understanding. When such reports make headlines, even the general public, regardless of comprehension, starts worrying about the market’s trajectory.

However, had analysts questioned the source and accuracy of subscriber data, BTRC could have provided more detailed information. Understanding how BTRC collects data is crucial to interpreting what is happening—or might happen—in the market.

For instance, when analyzing mobile telecom subscribers, understanding the active network connections would be clearer if the subscriber count was based on MSISDN (Mobile Station International Subscriber Directory Number). The MSISDN includes the country code, network code, and a unique personal identifier for each subscriber. Accurate MSISDN data reveals the number of active or inactive connections and provides insight into the type of services customers use.

Without clear MSISDN data, BTRC’s statistics leave room for ambiguity. For example, when we hear that 4.4 million mobile internet subscribers have decreased, does it mean their connections were terminated or that these users reduced their data package purchases? If connections are terminated, it indicates a withdrawal from mobile telecom services, which is alarming for operators. Conversely, reduced data package purchases could imply declining usage or a shift towards broadband services.

BTRC’s data shows a contrasting trend: while mobile internet users have declined, broadband subscriptions have increased in 2024. However, broadband growth stalled from September to November, likely due to irregular reporting by ISPs or stagnation in new subscriptions. A closer look at 2024 data (January to November) reveals that mobile internet subscribers increased from 116.30 million to 119.06 million, a growth of 2.7 million. Broadband subscribers rose from 12.88 million to 13.74 million, an increase of 860,000. Despite recent short-term fluctuations, mobile internet has seen greater overall growth than broadband in 2024.

Surprisingly, some mobile operator officials and analysts focus on isolated data from August to November rather than the entire year, raising concerns about their motives. This selective data portrayal might be a strategic move tied to shifting political dynamics or regulatory advantages. Without MSISDN data, such suspicions are inevitable.

Analyzing the past five years, one sees a steady decline in mobile operators’ revenue from voice calls, as users increasingly prefer OTT apps for communication. Data package usage grew until 2020 but plateaued or slightly declined post-COVID-19. Meanwhile, broadband subscriptions have surged due to rising bandwidth demand during the pandemic. Current data shows that Bangladesh consumes over 6,000 Gbps of internet daily, with mobile operators providing 1,650 Gbps (27%) and ISPs delivering 4,350 Gbps (72.5%).

This highlights a major challenge for mobile operators: both voice call and data package revenues may continue to decline, while broadband services, dominated by ISPs, expand. To address this, mobile operators face two main options:

1. Invest in 5G: Deploying 5G networks in eight divisional cities would require around $3 billion. However, 5G is primarily industrial-focused and may not attract significant consumer demand due to high costs. Competing with current 4G pricing while recovering investments is nearly impossible, especially given the increased need for bandwidth and frequent tax hikes.

2. Dominate Mobile Broadband: A more feasible path involves spending $300–400 million to capture the mobile broadband market. Operators could secure control over transmission and IIG businesses and collaborate with district and sub-district ISPs. This approach would give the three major operators joint control over both mobile and broadband services, sidelining local ISPs and NTTN companies, effectively monopolizing the telecom sector.

However, such monopolization could threaten healthy competition. The ILDTS policy of 2008 was introduced to prevent dominance by a single operator, reduce transmission costs, and promote equitable interconnection. While policy revisions may be necessary, bypassing these frameworks for exclusive infrastructural control could harm the market.

BTRC must adopt a balanced regulatory approach, ensuring opportunities for both foreign investors and local entrepreneurs. With increasing concerns over data privacy and cybersecurity, policies should mandate local partnerships for foreign investments, safeguarding national interests.

The telecom sector is witnessing rapid technological transformation, bringing both opportunities and challenges. While competition can drive growth, attempts to monopolize the market could stifle innovation and harm stakeholders. A balanced and inclusive regulatory framework is essential for sustainable development in Bangladesh’s telecom industry.

Rased Mehdi: Telecom and IT Sector Analyst.