Where is Trump's foreign policy headed?

Donald Trump is the 47th President of the United States. Presidential elections are pivotal in American politics, offering a reflection of voter sentiment toward various policies, economic programs, foreign relations, and global trade strategies. Without waiting for the final election updates, Trump announced himself as "President" in front of enthusiastic supporters in West Palm Beach, Florida. Meanwhile, Kamala Harris, who was also prepared to deliver a victory speech, refrained from doing so when it became apparent she wouldn’t win.

The President of the United States holds significant influence globally. Four years ago, Democratic candidate Joe Biden defeated Republican Donald Trump. Trump contested the election results, alleging voter fraud, and incited thousands of his supporters to storm the Capitol Hill building, resulting in chaos and casualties. While elected officials gathered to certify Biden's victory, Trump's rhetoric led to violence. He even referred to the congressional committee investigating the Capitol Hill attack as a "kangaroo court" and promised to pardon the perpetrators if re-elected.

Many view Trump as an unconventional and volatile figure. He has often been criticized for his aggressive, muscle-flexing approach, and his unwavering support for Israel has alienated much of the Muslim world. In contrast, Biden’s tenure has not shown any significant shift in U.S. foreign policy toward Israel, despite initial hopes among American Muslims for a more balanced stance on the Palestinian issue.

On October 7, 2023, Hamas fighters breached Israel's borders, killing over a thousand people and taking hostages, prompting Israel to launch a retaliatory offensive in Gaza. Israel’s counterattack has led to widespread devastation, with tens of thousands of Palestinians killed, millions displaced, and much of Gaza's infrastructure destroyed. Despite regional instability, U.S. airstrikes in Iran-supported territories like Yemen, Iraq, and Syria have given Israel a strategic edge against Hamas and Hezbollah.

President Biden has declared that no one should be allowed to win against Israel. Continuous arms supplies to Israel have created an air bridge, with weapons arriving constantly, while the U.S. has vetoed all UN efforts to cease the hostilities. The U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has expressed frustration, calling the Security Council outdated and ineffective, stating that its failure in Gaza has damaged its credibility. Biden’s unconditional support has emboldened Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, while Trump has claimed that such conflicts would not have occurred under his leadership and that he could end the Russia-Ukraine war if elected.

The Biden administration has also seen global economic instability, with prolonged conflicts and sanctions on Russia contributing to economic turmoil. Trump, during his previous term, refrained from initiating new wars, instead aiming to end ongoing conflicts, withdrawing troops from Iraq and Afghanistan, and reducing American involvement in Libya. He even considered withdrawing the U.S. from NATO. Many Americans now seem to lean toward Trump’s stance on ending wars.

Trump has previously attempted to isolate China and Iran and intends to uphold strict immigration policies. His campaign slogan, to “Make America Great Again,” recalls nationalist pride, though some view it as an arrogant stance. The U.S. foreign policy under Trump also affected leaders like Libya’s Muammar Gaddafi and Iraq’s Saddam Hussein.

Notably, during his previous term, Trump showed little interest in Bangladesh; however, this time, he has made comments about minority rights there. Some analysts suggest that Trump’s lack of a personal rapport with Dr. Muhammad Yunus, compared to Democrats’ close ties, could influence the interim government’s international relations. Senior officials in Biden’s administration who maintain strong relations with Bangladesh may be replaced under Trump, potentially altering bilateral relations.

However, analysts like Michael Kugelman from the Wilson Center speculate that past criticisms may still impede a smooth relationship between Trump and Yunus. Additionally, Trump’s close ties with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi may empower India in exerting pressure on neighboring countries, including Bangladesh, in alignment with U.S. interests. Nevertheless, substantial shifts in U.S. foreign policy toward Bangladesh are unlikely to bring immediate political changes.

Grassroots members of Bangladesh’s ruling party, the Awami League, appear pleased with Trump’s victory. Interestingly, before final results were confirmed, Modi and Netanyahu were among the first to congratulate Trump.

Zeauddin Ahmed is a former Executive Director of Bangladesh Bank.